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FXUS62 KFFC 072051 AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 351 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 350 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

Upper level ridge is extending from the northern Gulf Coast into the Great Lakes region continues to slide eastward as the short term period begins. Surface high pressure associated with this ridge is centered over east-central Georgia, with winds coming up on the SW side on the back side of the high. Dry conditions persist under the influence of this high. The 12Z sounding indicated a pronounced dry layer as low as 925 mb. Within this dry air, dewpoints dropped into the single digits in the higher elevations of far northeast Georgia this morning. RH values in these areas ranging from 20-30 percent warranted the issuance of a Fire Danger Statement for Fannin, Union, Towns, and White counties until 22Z. High temperatures will undergo a gradual warming trend under the influence of the high and with SW flow bringing in low-level moisture overnight into tomorrow. High temperatures this afternoon are in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Conditions will remain mostly clear tonight, with only some passing upper level clouds. Low temperatures on Friday will start out in the mid to upper 30s, rising to highs in the low 60s in north Georgia and mid 60s in central Georgia. Considering low-level moisture return, RH values are forecast to remain well above critical fire danger thresholds. The upper level flow pattern will transition late in the period, with the ridge axis crossing Georgia and moving over the Eastern Seaboard. As this occurs, an upper trough and low pressure system will move northeastward from the Southern Plains into the Midwest. As a cold front extending southward from the drops into the Mississippi River Valley, scattered showers ahead of this front will advance in to north and west Georgia late Friday night into early Saturday morning.

King

LONG TERM
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 350 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

The main story for the long term period will be the frontal passage on Sunday, so this portion of the AFD is going to focus mainly on this portion. Looking at Sunday the risk for severe weather remains very conditional. A strong deep trough with 500 mb winds close to 100kts is expected to move eastward across the southeast Saturday into Sunday and arriving into GA as early as Sunday morning before moving through during the day Sunday. This is looking like a high shear low CAPE setup at the moment with shear values ranging from 90-100kts, but CAPE values struggling at max ~200 J/kg. With the front coming through earlier in the day, instead of afternoon during peak heating ultimately means that the instability will likely at this time not get a chance to reach ranges to warrant much of a severe threat. Definitely stay tuned though because any change in timing with the front could change things, thus the conditional severe wording. Regardless with those shear values, and 850 mb winds up to 45 kts, gusty winds are likely for much of north and central GA. Current values up to 30 kts are expected, but could see higher values up to 35kt at higher elevations of course. With how strong this trough and subsequent cold front is, temps are expected to drop quickly into the low to mid 30s across the area by Monday morning.
Leftover precip is possible in far northeast GA which in addition to temps dropping below freezing could lead to a rain/snow mixture for that far northeast GA area especially in higher elevations. No accumulations are expected at this time.

Following this frontal passage high pressure is expected to build back in which will ultimately keep the precip out of the area for the remainder of the forecast period into Thursday. Only a marginal warm up is expected following the frontal passage with highs in the mid 50s and lows in the low to mid 30s.

Hernandez

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period, with only passing high clouds through Friday afternoon. Winds through the remainder of the day will be W to SW at 4-7 kts, becoming light and variable at most sites by midnight and through the early morning hours. Winds are anticipated to be SW at 5-10 kts during the daytime on Friday.

//ATL Confidence
18Z Update
High confidence on all elements.

King

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 35 61 46 65 / 0 0 30 50 Atlanta 37 61 50 66 / 0 0 40 60 Blairsville 33 58 42 59 / 0 0 40 60 Cartersville 35 63 48 66 / 0 0 40 60 Columbus 37 63 51 71 / 0 0 30 60 Gainesville 37 60 47 62 / 0 0 50 70 Macon 35 64 50 71 / 0 0 20 40 Rome 33 63 49 68 / 0 0 50 70 Peachtree City 34 62 49 68 / 0 0 40 70 Vidalia 40 66 53 76 / 0 0 10 20

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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