Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Flowery Branch, GA
March 28, 2024 1:03 PM EDT (17:03 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:26 AM Sunset 7:55 PM Moonrise 10:22 PM Moonset 8:00 AM |
Area Discussion for - Peachtree City, GA
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FXUS62 KFFC 281551 AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 1151 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
UPDATE
Issued at 1143 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Forecast remains on track with leftover clouds scooting E across the SE half of the area. We will continue to monitor fuel moisture levels for possible expansion of the Fire Danger Statement which is currently confined to extreme NE GA. Most levels are in the teens, but a few are closer to 10, and conditions are nearly ideal for fairly rapid drying. RH values are already below 30 percent across much of the NW half of the County Warning Area, and winds are gusting over 20 mph. /SEC
SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 418 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
The cold front has cleared the forecast area with rain activity expected to finally diminish. A shortwave embedded within the 500-mb flow will move across the area today will help the front continue to progress east bringing mostly clear skies and warm temperatures in the 60s and 70s. Some moisture in the mid levels will linger over parts of eastern central Georgia today producing cloud coverage in these locations through the afternoon and may limit daytime maximum temperatures into the upper 60s. As the post frontal airmass settles into the forecast area, dry surface conditions (reflected in the dewpoint field) are expected. Meteorological conditions (relative humidities at 25% or less for 4 or more hours and strong northwest winds between 15 and 20 mph gusting between 25 and 30 mph) for critical fire weather are present today for a significant portion of the forecast area. However, only a few locations are expected to meet the fuel moisture threshold for a Fire Danger Statement. For now, a handful of our northeastern counties in the mountains are under a Fire Danger Statement. Should fuel moistures rapidly dry this morning, other locations may need to be considered for a Fire Danger Statement. Winds are expected to remain sub-advisory criteria, but a few locations along the highest ridge tops in mountainous terrain could see isolated gusts approaching 35 mph.
Overnight tonight, temperatures will drop into the mid 30s and low 40s areawide. Under clear skies and calm conditions, a few areas of patchy frost may briefly develop. However, given the fleeting nature of necessary atmospheric conditions for frost formation, have held off on a Frost Advisory with this forecast package. Temperatures will warm quickly into the low 70s on Friday as high pressure builds in from the west at the surface. NW winds will gradually become SW throughout the day and will be much calmer than today. With the dry post frontal airmass still in place and with fuel moistures having the opportunity to dry out today, tomorrow presents yet another chance for dangerous fire conditions areawide.
KAL
LONG TERM
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 418 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
The first portion of the long term period will be characterized by a high pressure system centered over FL and the Bahamas, and mid-/upper-level ridging over the Southeast. Winds will be westerly to southwesterly as the forecast area is situated on the northern fringes of the high. This setup will promote gradually increasing temperatures and dew points Saturday through Monday. High temperatures will generally be in the low-/mid-80s on Sunday and Monday. While it will be dry, the increasing dew points will preclude hazardous fire weather conditions on Sunday and Monday. That said, fire weather conditions (relative humidity, winds/gusts, and finer fuel moistures) will bear watching on Saturday.
For early Tuesday morning through Wednesday night, the GEFS and EPS depict a positively-tilted mid-/upper-level trough traversing the Southeast, while the CMCE depicts a less-pronounced trough passing over as a cut-off low develops over the Four Corners region. The differences in the placement/dynamics of the trough among the ensemble guidance has an impact on where the primary area of low pressure develops and moves, and thus the timing and intensity of precipitation across the forecast area. Did not stray much from the NBM guidance for PoPs, so not much change has been made from the previous forecast package in this respect. Have included a slight chance for thunder Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon as the GEFS and CMCE are progging up to ~25% chance for CAPE >1000 J/kg, with good agreement amongst the GEFS members. The GEFS, EPS, and CMCE are also progging >60 kts of bulk shear. Putting these ingredients together, at least isolated thunderstorms are expected with the potential for stronger storms with gusty to damaging winds.
The QPF is widespread 0.25" to 0.75" with 1.0" to 1.5" across portions of far north GA.
Martin
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 744 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
VFR conditions at most TAF sites with BKN/SCT high cloud deck. AHN will continue to see intermittent periods of LIFR/IFC cigs/vsbys over the next couple of hours. MCN could also see intermittent MVFR cigs this morning. SCT/BKN050-060 return after 15Z before improving to SKC by the afternoon. NW winds will increase to 10-13 KT gusting between 20-23KT after sunrise this morning and will drop off at or just after sunset. NW winds will slacken to 5KT or less through the remainder of the TAF period.
//ATL Confidence
12Z Update
High on all elements.
KAL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 40 72 46 77 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 42 71 48 76 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 34 66 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 Cartersville 36 72 44 78 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 42 74 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 40 71 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 42 72 46 77 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 37 72 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 39 73 46 77 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 43 71 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 1151 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
UPDATE
Issued at 1143 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Forecast remains on track with leftover clouds scooting E across the SE half of the area. We will continue to monitor fuel moisture levels for possible expansion of the Fire Danger Statement which is currently confined to extreme NE GA. Most levels are in the teens, but a few are closer to 10, and conditions are nearly ideal for fairly rapid drying. RH values are already below 30 percent across much of the NW half of the County Warning Area, and winds are gusting over 20 mph. /SEC
SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 418 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
The cold front has cleared the forecast area with rain activity expected to finally diminish. A shortwave embedded within the 500-mb flow will move across the area today will help the front continue to progress east bringing mostly clear skies and warm temperatures in the 60s and 70s. Some moisture in the mid levels will linger over parts of eastern central Georgia today producing cloud coverage in these locations through the afternoon and may limit daytime maximum temperatures into the upper 60s. As the post frontal airmass settles into the forecast area, dry surface conditions (reflected in the dewpoint field) are expected. Meteorological conditions (relative humidities at 25% or less for 4 or more hours and strong northwest winds between 15 and 20 mph gusting between 25 and 30 mph) for critical fire weather are present today for a significant portion of the forecast area. However, only a few locations are expected to meet the fuel moisture threshold for a Fire Danger Statement. For now, a handful of our northeastern counties in the mountains are under a Fire Danger Statement. Should fuel moistures rapidly dry this morning, other locations may need to be considered for a Fire Danger Statement. Winds are expected to remain sub-advisory criteria, but a few locations along the highest ridge tops in mountainous terrain could see isolated gusts approaching 35 mph.
Overnight tonight, temperatures will drop into the mid 30s and low 40s areawide. Under clear skies and calm conditions, a few areas of patchy frost may briefly develop. However, given the fleeting nature of necessary atmospheric conditions for frost formation, have held off on a Frost Advisory with this forecast package. Temperatures will warm quickly into the low 70s on Friday as high pressure builds in from the west at the surface. NW winds will gradually become SW throughout the day and will be much calmer than today. With the dry post frontal airmass still in place and with fuel moistures having the opportunity to dry out today, tomorrow presents yet another chance for dangerous fire conditions areawide.
KAL
LONG TERM
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 418 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
The first portion of the long term period will be characterized by a high pressure system centered over FL and the Bahamas, and mid-/upper-level ridging over the Southeast. Winds will be westerly to southwesterly as the forecast area is situated on the northern fringes of the high. This setup will promote gradually increasing temperatures and dew points Saturday through Monday. High temperatures will generally be in the low-/mid-80s on Sunday and Monday. While it will be dry, the increasing dew points will preclude hazardous fire weather conditions on Sunday and Monday. That said, fire weather conditions (relative humidity, winds/gusts, and finer fuel moistures) will bear watching on Saturday.
For early Tuesday morning through Wednesday night, the GEFS and EPS depict a positively-tilted mid-/upper-level trough traversing the Southeast, while the CMCE depicts a less-pronounced trough passing over as a cut-off low develops over the Four Corners region. The differences in the placement/dynamics of the trough among the ensemble guidance has an impact on where the primary area of low pressure develops and moves, and thus the timing and intensity of precipitation across the forecast area. Did not stray much from the NBM guidance for PoPs, so not much change has been made from the previous forecast package in this respect. Have included a slight chance for thunder Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon as the GEFS and CMCE are progging up to ~25% chance for CAPE >1000 J/kg, with good agreement amongst the GEFS members. The GEFS, EPS, and CMCE are also progging >60 kts of bulk shear. Putting these ingredients together, at least isolated thunderstorms are expected with the potential for stronger storms with gusty to damaging winds.
The QPF is widespread 0.25" to 0.75" with 1.0" to 1.5" across portions of far north GA.
Martin
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 744 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
VFR conditions at most TAF sites with BKN/SCT high cloud deck. AHN will continue to see intermittent periods of LIFR/IFC cigs/vsbys over the next couple of hours. MCN could also see intermittent MVFR cigs this morning. SCT/BKN050-060 return after 15Z before improving to SKC by the afternoon. NW winds will increase to 10-13 KT gusting between 20-23KT after sunrise this morning and will drop off at or just after sunset. NW winds will slacken to 5KT or less through the remainder of the TAF period.
//ATL Confidence
12Z Update
High on all elements.
KAL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 40 72 46 77 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 42 71 48 76 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 34 66 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 Cartersville 36 72 44 78 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 42 74 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 40 71 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 42 72 46 77 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 37 72 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 39 73 46 77 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 43 71 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KGVL LEE GILMER MEMORIAL,GA | 7 sm | 70 min | NNW 10 | 10 sm | Clear | 64°F | 19°F | 18% | 30.05 | |
KLZU GWINNETT COUNTY BRISCOE FIELD,GA | 15 sm | 67 min | var 06 | 10 sm | Clear | 63°F | 23°F | 22% | 30.05 | |
KJCA JACKSON COUNTY,GA | 19 sm | 28 min | NNE 06G15 | 10 sm | Clear | 64°F | 27°F | 24% | 30.03 | |
KWDR BARROW COUNTY,GA | 20 sm | 28 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 64°F | 18°F | 16% | 30.04 |
Atlanta, GA,
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