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FXUS62 KFFC 281959 AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 259 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 239 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

Other than high fire danger, no major forecast concerns or weather impacts expected in the short term period.

Strong CAA subsidence and NW flow in place. If incoming solar radiation wasn't so strong would likely see falling temps this afternoon. Temps fall quite a bit tonight with min temps well below freezing areawide, which is 10-15 degrees below normal. A little warmer Wednesday afternoon compared with today with highs in the low to mid 50s, but still 3 to 10 degrees below normal.
High clouds already returning Wed night with some warming as flow aloft switches to WSW in advance of digging short wave into NW Mexico pushing east in southern stream.

SNELSON

LONG TERM
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 239 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

Cloudy and wet will define the extended period i.e. the weekend.
Thursday begins with surface ridge firmly entrenched across the SE states beneath a fairly fast upper zonal flow. As the surface ridge quickly exits into the Atlanta by Thursday night amidst the fast upper flow, a south and southwest surface flow will ensue thus a steady increase in moisture across the region. Meanwhile in the upper levels, a weak shortwave lifting into the Ohio Valley will enhance the isentropic lift across the region beginning overnight Thu into Friday AM. With the surface ridge ever so slightly hanging on into Friday in a somewhat of a wedge, model soundings for NE GA, i.e. suggest that the onset of precip between 06z and 09z Friday could be mixed with some sleet. A fairly dry layer exists below about 800mb with dpt temps in the lower 20's not only resulting in some evaporative cooling but also potentially some sleet making it to the ground until the layer saturates and warms by early Friday AM
Regardless
the isentropic pattern sets up and will dominate through Friday. Models, particularly the GFS suggest strongest isentropic lift along the 290-300K pressure levels with a strong 40kt wind up that slope during the day Friday. PWAT values in the 1.00" to 1.5" range more than sufficient to produce a much needed widespread rainfall event.

Upper ridging takes hold over the Caribbean by Saturday as a longwave trof sets up over the western US
The end result
broad SW flow aloft over much of the southeast US with moisture ties back to the Pacific. Main shortwave within the broad trof over the west kicks out and to the NE during the day Saturday offering a more robust 2nd round of precip Saturday night into Sunday AM across the region. There are subtle differences in the model timing with the evolution of the the 2nd wave and how it will eventually help to swing the trof through. Some solutions are faster with a clearing out of the region by Sunday Night while slower solutions hold off until Monday. The result is the NBM guidance holds on to POPs through Monday to account for the slower solutions.

Storm total QPF values from Thu PM through Monday on the order of 3 to 5" across Middle GA south and east of I-85. North and west of I85 values range from near 2" in far NW GA to near 3" along the I-85 corridor. The good news is that it is mostly spread out through the weekend and should not result in any flooding concerns in addition to abating the drought situation.

30

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

VFR conditions with SKC expected thru the forecast. NW winds gusting to 24-28kts will gradually decrease through the afternoon before dropping to 3-6kts around 00Z and remaining 4-8kts even after 15Z Wed.

//ATL Confidence
18Z Update
High confidence on all elements.

SNELSON

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 24 53 31 60 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 27 54 34 59 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 19 51 28 57 / 0 0 0 0 Cartersville 20 54 30 61 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 29 57 32 61 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 25 51 34 58 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 27 56 30 61 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 22 55 29 62 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 24 55 29 60 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 30 56 33 63 / 0 0 0 0

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for GAZ001>009- 011>016.

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