Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oxnard, CA

.SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)...20/745 PM.

***UPDATE***

Latest satellite and surface observations indicate clear skies across the area this evening. Current sounding data indicates marine layer is very shallow, 500 feet or less in depth. As for winds, gusty Sundowners (gusts 35-45 MPH) are observed along with some gusty westerly winds (25-35 MPH) across the Antelope Valley.

Forecast-wise for the immediate short term, main concerns will be winds and possible development of marine layer stratus. With respect to winds, gradients will relax overnight. So, current gusty winds will gradually diminish overnight. As for marine layer stratus, low to moderate confidence in development of stratus overnight. Whatever amount of stratus/fog develops, it will be confined to coastal plain south of Point Conception. Given the very shallow depth of the inversion, any fog that develops will likely be dense.

Overall, current forecast has good handle on the immediate short term. So, no significant updates are expected. For Wednesday through Thursday, main focus will continue to be the heat.

***From Previous Discussion***

Heat away from the coast and night to morning dense fog near the coast look to be the main weather hazards through Thursday. We have below normal confidence in the Heat Advisory described in some detail below, especially near the coast, including Downtown Los Angeles, with the increasing potential for nature’s air conditioning via the marine layer potentially sheltering these areas from the worst of the heat Wednesday and especially Thursday.

The warming trend continued today with temperatures already around 90 degrees by noon across warmer valleys with daytime highs expected for these areas in the 90-95+ range, focused in the San Fernando Valley and some adjacent areas where a Heat Advisory is in effect starting today. A few degrees of additional warming is likely into Wednesday, focused away from immediate coastal areas, which may see their warmest day today. The Heat Advisory expands to most coasts and and coastal valleys as well as southern Salinas Valley including Paso Robles into Wednesday and Thursday.

Breezy Sundowner winds and increasing northwest to onshore winds across the interior by Thursday may near advisory levels, but perhaps more importantly will lead to elevated fire weather concerns where the grass has already dried out, focused across the mountains and interior valleys. Please take care with fire ignition sources in these areas in particular.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...20/154 PM.

The weak ridge responsible for the warmup breaks down by Friday and with limited weather impacts on the horizon and near to slightly above normal temperatures and winds likely prevailing through at least this weekend. Night to morning low clouds may more widespread with less dense fog concerns, especially in coastal areas. We may see near advisory level northwest Sundowner winds for southwest Santa Barbara County and interior mountains especially near the I-5 corridor in the Friday/Saturday time frame. Fire weather concerns will continue, especially across the far interior mountains and valleys.

AVIATION
21/0653Z.

At 0505Z at KLAX, the marine layer was around 500 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 1600 feet with a temperature of 25 C.

Moderate confidence in TAFs for KSMX and KSBP with a 25 percent chc of LIFR cig/vis 12Z-16Z.

Moderate confidence in TAFs for KLAX, KLGB and KSMO with a 30 percent chc of no low clouds. There is a 20 percent chc of LIFR conds 12Z-16Z.

High confidence in the remainder of the TAFs.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 40% chance of no low clouds this morning. If cigs do arrive, there is a 20% chc of 1/4SM-1/2SM FG BKN002 conds through 16Z. Any east wind component should remain less than 7 knots.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

MARINE
20/952 PM.

Moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. Higher confidence exists in the forecast for seas relative to the forecast for winds.

For the Outer Waters and the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, conditions will be at least Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
levels through Wednesday night, except for lulls nearshore along the Central Coast during late night and early morning hours.
There is a 40 percent chance for short-lived GALE Force winds Wednesday night to early Thursday morning for the northern outer waters. There is a moderate chance for GALE Force winds for Thursday evening and Friday evening.

Across the Santa Barbara Channel, winds are expected to remain below SCA levels, however local SCA wind gusts are possible across the far western portions tonight. Chances for SCA conditions lessen Wednesday through Friday.

South of Point Mugu, into the Santa Monica Bay, and the San Pedro Channel, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through at least Friday.

SCA level seas of 10 feet or greater are expected throughout most of the outer waters through at least Wednesday night.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Heat Advisory remains in effect from 11 AM Wednesday to 9 PM PDT Thursday for zones 88-343-348-351>353-356>358-368-374-375-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Heat Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM PDT Thursday for zones 369>373. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).