Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oxnard, CA

.SHORT TERM (SAT-TUE)...13/831 PM.

A warming trend will begin Saturday as high pressure expands west from AZ. This will have the usual assortment of impacts, namely warmer temperatures (mostly away from the coast), and a shallower marine layer (between 800-1500 feet). Highs are expected to peak on Sunday with highs at least in the mid 90s across the warmest coastal valleys, and lower 100's in the Antelope Valley.
These numbers would likely be below heat advisory criteria but can't rule that out completely. Closer to the coast, including Downtown LA highs will be in the 70s and 80s. Breezy but sub- advisory level Sundowner winds are expected across southwest Santa Barbara County tonight. Sundowner winds are expected to ramp up Saturday night, then peak in strength on Sunday night and Monday night when gusts of 35 to 55 mph will be common from Gaviota to San Marcos Pass. There is a chance of isolated gusts of to 60 mph near Gaviota/Refugio. As a result, there is a chance of wind advisories as early as Saturday night for the sundowners, then likely for Sunday night and Monday night. These warmer and drier sundowner winds will also bring increased fire risk to southwest Santa Barbara county over the weekend into Monday. Gusty west to northwest winds will also impact portions of the mountains and Antelope Valley through Monday, resulting in elevated to brief critical fire weather conditions for these areas

***From previous discussion***

A trough is expected to move onshore over Central California Monday that should create a stronger onshore flow and cool temperatures at least a few degrees, but highs will still be a few degrees above normal.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...13/208 PM.

After a day of cooling Monday temperatures are expected to start ramping back up Tuesday and peaking Wednesday at similar or possibly even slightly higher temperatures than this coming Sunday. Still mostly 70s and 80s for coastal areas within around 10 miles of the coast. But again 90s for most of the coastal valleys and possibly touching 100 in the warmest areas and the Antelope Valley and interior SLO County.

The latter half of the week will turn cooler as a another trough hits the West Coast. By Thursday onshore gradients to the east are expected to be close to 10mb and gradients to the north will turn strongly positive (7mb SBA-BFL) putting an end to the Sundowners and likely keeping many coastal areas under a marine layer well into the afternoon.

AVIATION
14/0702Z.

At 0505Z at KLAX, the marine inversion was based at 1400 feet.
The top of the inversion was 3600 feet with a temperature of 26 C.

High confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KWJF and KPMD.

For other sites, moderate confidence in 00Z TAFs. There is a 30% chance of LIFR/VLIFR conditions at KSBP 08Z-16Z. Elsewhere, timing of flight category changes could be off by +/- 2 hours and cig hgts by +/- 200 ft.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR conds could arrive as early as 17Z or as late as 20Z. Low cloud return could be as late as 05Z with a 30 percent chc of BKN008 conds. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chc of BKN012 conds through 17Z.

MARINE
13/652 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Wednesday, high confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds with seas hovering near SCA levels. On Monday and Tuesday, there is a 40-60% chance of widespread Gale force winds.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate confidence in current forecast. Through Wednesday, SCA level winds are expected, mainly during the the afternoon and evening hours, with lighter winds during each late night to morning period. There is a 20% chance of Gale force winds Monday and Monday night.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate confidence in current forecast. High confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for a majority of the southern Inner Waters through Wednesday, except for the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there will be an increasing chance of SCA level winds through the period during the afternoon and evening hours. For Sunday night through Wednesday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel (with a 30% chance of Gale force winds Monday and Monday night), but winds are generally expected to remain below SCA levels elsewhere across the southern Inner Waters.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT early this morning for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).