Sunday, July5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Belville, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 8:28PM Sunday July 5, 2020 4:15 PM EDT (20:15 UTC) Moonrise 8:13PMMoonset 5:19AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 308 Pm Edt Sun Jul 5 2020
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Isolated tstms.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Isolated showers and tstms.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Isolated showers and tstms in the evening, then scattered showers and tstms after midnight.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely. Tstms likely, mainly in the evening.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the evening.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of tstms through the day. A chance of showers.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 308 Pm Edt Sun Jul 5 2020
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Weak high pressure will bring light wind much of the period. A weak frontal boundary across the waters will bring isolated tstms on Monday. Low pressure along the gulf coast states will lift north early next week, bringing increasing rain chances and a greater coverage of tstm activity.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Belville, NC
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location: 34.23, -77.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 051855 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 255 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak frontal boundary will bring isolated storms over SE NC today and again Monday. A low pressure system rising from the Gulf Coast states will bring increasing humidity and rain chances this upcoming week, along with a greater coverage of thunderstorms.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Remainder of today, convection will dot areas near a weak frontal boundary, serving as a lift-zone, from Surf City to Elizabethtown to Lumberton, and points north. Inhibition remains parked beneath an upper ridge, offering unwelcoming lapse rates for convection 'wanna be fans'. As such, afternoon convection should wane almost entirely by mid-evening, as vital surface heating becomes missing.

Monday much better probability of measurable precipitation on tap. This as low pressure swirls, and rises north out of eastern Georgia Monday morning, bringing not only convergence, but a plume of elevated precipitable water from south to north. By Monday afternoon we should see a good bit of convection over SC, less so over NC. Monday night diurnal cooling will fade out some convection but not all, as even a deeper plume of moisture edges north into SC. The severe threat is low mainly because of light column winds, but a downburst of wind adjacent to a TSTM locally, is very possible Monday afternoon.

Clouds and pcpn will temper max-T Monday, with 80s over SC and lower 90s NC, reflective of the moisture advection from south to north. The light wind and partial clearing will lead to patches of fog the next couple of overnights, and dewpoints will trend slowly upward this period.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Period of unsettled weather will continue through the week. On Tuesday, with ridging offshore a 500mb shortwave will approach from the SW. At the surface, a weak low will develop over the Southeast US Tuesday into Wednesday. Precipitable water values will increase to over 2 inches Tuesday, and likely persisting into next weekend. Given abundant moisture and lift in the form of upper impulses and low formation, have likely to definite pops during the day Tuesday and Wednesday, with chance to likely pops overnight. Rain could be moderate at times, especially Tuesday, and our area is in marginal risk for excessive rainfall Tues. The increased clouds and precip will keep high temps well below normal.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Low pressure system will be exiting northeastward Thursday through Saturday, with GFS quicker with its exit than ECM. Will likely see partial clearing beginning Thursday as dry air wraps around low, but elevated storm chances remain. As low exits to the northeast, a surface trough and associated front will extend southward across or near our area Friday into the weekend. This will keep things unsettled for the long term, particularly along the coast. Chance of thunderstorms Friday through Sunday, with slightly lower pops during overnight hours. Below normal highs Thursday will increase to near or above normal for the weekend, with slightly above normal low temps. With dewpoints in the mid 70s next Saturday, current forecast has heat indices over 100 across the area, approaching 105 in some spots.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The HRRR is been pretty consistent in kicking off convection around 18-19Z, but only over our northern portion of the CWA. Most of the convection will end by 00Z, with convective debris overnight. Some light fog is possible around sunrise on Monday.

Extended Outlook . Increasing MVFR/IFR showers and thunderstorm coverage Mon night thru Thu. This the result of a low pressure system slowly lifting out of the Gulf of Mexico late Mon, then tracking across the Carolinas during the mid-week period of next week, and eventually up the Eastern Seaboard to the NE States by the upcoming weekend. Increased potential for early morning fog over locations that receive rainfall during the prior 24 hrs.

MARINE. Today through Monday Night: Light winds continue for mariners, but TSTMs will become more common in the upcoming days, as low pressure from the Gulf states rises into the Carolinas. Outside of TSTMs, favorable S winds of 5-15 kt, highest in afternoon near shore. The oceanic wave spectrum to include ESE waves 1-2 ft every 9 seconds, co- mingled with S waves 2 ft every 3-5 seconds. Mariners are encouraged to get radar updates before venturing out, as TSTMs become more numerous in the days ahead. In and near TSTMs, winds and waves are usually considerably greater, than forecasted sustained winds and seas. If the forecast reads 5-15 kt, but you are beneath or next to a TSTM, the forecast will not be valid in that moment, and jeopardy exists. This is the reason the radar updates are encouraged this period.

Tuesday through Friday: High pressure centered well offshore will maintain south winds Tuesday into Wednesday around 10-15 kts. A low pressure system moving across the Carolinas Wednesday through Thursday will briefly veer the winds Thursday, with west-southwest winds in place late Thursday through Friday as surface low moves to the northeast. Winds Thursday to Friday between 10-15 kts. 2 ft seas Tuesday will be slowly increasing during the week due to building S wind wave. 2-3 ft seas Wed become 3-4 ft Thursday and Friday, with 5 footers possible in the outer SE NC coastal waters Friday. A 1-2 ft E 9s swell persists throughout the week. Elevated thunderstorms chances Tuesday and Wednesday, with chance of storms remaining through the end of the week into the weekend.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Minor Coastal Flooding likely . Along the banks of the Lower Cape Fear River from Wilmington southward. Minor flooding will occur within a 4 hour window centered on this evening's high tide, which occurs around 11 pm. For example, Water street and River Road, south of Wilmington NC, could observe drains back filling and spewing partially onto the local roads.

Minor Coastal Flooding likely during this Evening's High Tide. Locations included . The immediate coast between Surf City and Kure Beach. This includes low lying roadways bordering beaches, such as Canal Drive of Carolina Beach NC, sewer drains back-filling and spewing across roadways, as well as salt water marshes and sounds filling up and onto adjacent roadways and properties. Minor flooding will occur within a 4 hour window centered on this evening's high tide, which is around 830 pm.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Monday for NCZ107. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . ILM NEAR TERM . MJC SHORT TERM . VAO LONG TERM . VAO AVIATION . 43 MARINE . MJC/VAO TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . DCH


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WLON7 0 mi45 min 90°F 83°F1015.2 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 9 mi45 min S 12 G 13 84°F 82°F1014.9 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 14 mi67 min S 9.7 G 14 83°F 83°F1015.5 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 14 mi38 min 83°F1 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 35 mi67 min SW 5.8 G 7.8 83°F 84°F1016.3 hPa
41108 35 mi45 min 88°F1 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 39 mi67 min SSW 9.7 G 12 84°F 84°F1016.1 hPa
41119 39 mi118 min 84°F1 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC4 mi22 minSE 710.00 miA Few Clouds89°F69°F52%1015 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC22 mi20 minSSW 710.00 miFair87°F68°F53%1015.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KILM

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW11SW10SW6SW6SW4SW5SW6SW6SW6W5W5W7W5SW3SW5W3W6NW4NW63NW5N5S8SE7
1 day agoSE8SE7S4S5SW4SW5SW4CalmW4W4W5W4W4W5W5W6W6W5W7W6W7W4CalmS13
2 days agoE3E5E6SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5NW5NW7N6N7N94--SE3

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington, North Carolina
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Wilmington
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:44 AM EDT     Full Moon
Sun -- 05:13 AM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:18 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 10:27 AM EDT     3.92 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:13 PM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:02 PM EDT     4.91 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.23.42.61.70.6-0.10.21.32.53.43.93.83.32.51.81.10.4-0.10.21.32.73.94.64.9

Tide / Current Tables for Masonboro Inlet, North Carolina
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Masonboro Inlet
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:44 AM EDT     Full Moon
Sun -- 03:00 AM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:18 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:44 AM EDT     3.61 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:00 PM EDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:20 PM EDT     4.64 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.21.10.2-0.10.31.122.93.53.63.32.61.70.80-0.30.112.23.34.14.64.54

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.