Thursday, January21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Belville, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 5:32PM Thursday January 21, 2021 10:27 PM EST (03:27 UTC) Moonrise 12:12PMMoonset 12:52AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 928 Pm Est Thu Jan 21 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 am est Friday...
Overnight..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft. Showers and tstms likely through the day, then a chance of showers and tstms through the night.
Tue..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 928 Pm Est Thu Jan 21 2021
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A weak frontal boundary slides offshore tonight with moderate southwest winds shifting to northwest. High pressure will build in from the north this weekend. A low pressure system brings a chance of rain Monday and small craft advisory conditions are likely late Monday into Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Belville, NC
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location: 34.23, -77.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 220230 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 930 PM EST Thu Jan 21 2021

SYNOPSIS. A weak cold front will continue to slip south. Light rain chances will linger Friday over SC. Canadian high pressure will provide cooler and drier weather this weekend. Rain chances increase early next week with another low pressure system impacting the area.

UPDATE. Forecast remains on track tonight; no updates required.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. A batch of light rain is currently pushing offshore this aftn, in association with weak shortwave energy aloft. Dry then for this evening as a weak front drops through the area, though continued cloudiness due to ample mid-level moisture will prevent temps from dropping quickly this evening, with low temps only in the low/mid 40s along with diminishing winds. The boundary remains off to the S for Fri, with a chance of rain over southern areas where moisture will be greatest. Between a dry column and absent forcing, not expecting any pcpn over at least the northern half of the area. All rain chances then end Fri night as sfc high pressure builds in from the NW. Decreasing clouds will allow for temps to drop into the low/mid 30s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Expect a quiet and cool weekend. Surface high pressure will build down from the north from Saturday and then gradually shift offshore by Sunday afternoon/evening. Not a lot of drama with the forecast as the baroclinic zone representing all of the cloud cover currently over the area and to the south pushes off leaving clear to sunny skies and certainly no pops. There may be some slight increase in moisture late Sunday with a system developing to the west. Highs will be in the lower 50s or so Saturday with only slight improvement Sunday. Lows Sunday morning will be the coldest with most areas below freezing and colder inland aided by almost ideal radiational conditions.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Expect a bit more action in the extended period of the forecast. A dampening shortwave moving out of the Western U. S. will lead to subtle ridging over the southeast. At the surface a warm front develops and interacts with an old frontal boundary which develops a lot of stratiform precipitation. However both the GFS and ECMWF show the heavier activity to the north. Still this setup warrants good chance to likely pops (highest north) for the first couple of days. Another more southern stream system brings pops back into the forecast late as well. Interesting temperature forecast as the post warm front numbers Monday and Tuesday are showing middle to upper 60s with some guidance well into the 70s moreso Tuesday. The cold front associated with the system brings readings back to reality Wednesday and Thursday.

AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Variable lower ceilings min MVFR for the next 6 hours as weak cold front continues to move offshore. Ceilings expected to return to VFR overnight into Friday with a mid to high broken to overcast cloud deck.

Extended Outlook . VFR through much of the weekend. Deteriorating flight conditions expected late Sunday night through much of next week with periods of rain, low clouds, and periodically reduced visibility.

MARINE. Through Friday Night . Pressure gradient remains tight ahead of a weak frontal boundary, leading to widespread 25-30 kt gusts this aftn. This should continue through these evening as a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect, before winds finally diminish overnight as the front drops through the waters and any CAA is quite weak. As high pressure builds in from the NW on Fri, only expect 5-10 kt winds, increasing to 10-15 kt Fri night as the pressure gradient tightens once again. Without much of a swell component, significant seas are expected to only peak around 4-5 ft out 20nm this evening, before dropping to 1-3 ft for Fri/Fri night. Saturday through Tuesday . An offshore flow will be in place early Saturday and remain so through about late Sunday or so as high pressure builds in from the north then eventually shifts offshore. A stronger southwest flow will develop Monday and persist through most of Tuesday with wind speeds of 20-25 knots at time. The combination of cold water temperatures and warm advection may limit speeds but this should be integrated into guidance. Significant seas will possibly build into Small Craft criteria during this time with the prolonged nature of the fetch.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for AMZ250-252-254- 256.

SYNOPSIS . ILM UPDATE . MCK NEAR TERM . MAS SHORT TERM . SHK LONG TERM . SHK AVIATION . MCK MARINE . MAS/SHK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WLON7 0 mi87 min 53°F 47°F1010.4 hPa (+0.4)
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 7 mi102 min W 2.9 53°F 991 hPa46°F
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 9 mi87 min WSW 9.9 G 13 54°F 52°F1009.9 hPa (+0.4)
MBIN7 11 mi87 min WNW 5.1 G 6 53°F 1009.6 hPa (+0.6)
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 14 mi79 min W 9.7 G 16 52°F 54°F1010.4 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 14 mi80 min 54°F2 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 35 mi79 min 56°F 60°F
41108 35 mi87 min 55°F6 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 39 mi79 min W 12 G 14 50°F 53°F1011.1 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC4 mi34 minWSW 810.00 miFair53°F45°F74%1010.6 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC22 mi32 minW 610.00 miOvercast54°F48°F81%1011.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KILM

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6SW9SW11SW12SW12W8SW17W16
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1 day agoSW7SW6SW7SW10SW9SW8SW12SW12
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2 days agoCalmCalmNW4NW5N5N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3W7SW6SW10SW10S10SW10S12S9SW4SW8SW7SW9

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington, North Carolina
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Wilmington
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:52 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:45 AM EST     3.76 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:20 AM EST     0.31 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:11 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:14 PM EST     3.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:31 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:30 PM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.62.63.33.73.83.42.61.81.20.70.30.41.12.12.93.43.63.52.81.810.50.10.1

Tide / Current Tables for Masonboro Inlet, North Carolina
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Masonboro Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:52 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 01:40 AM EST     3.30 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:09 AM EST     0.69 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:11 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:00 PM EST     3.02 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:30 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:28 PM EST     0.37 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.83.23.332.51.91.40.90.70.81.31.92.52.932.92.51.91.30.70.40.40.91.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station




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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.