Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lowndesville, SC

KEY MESSAGES
1. Fire weather concerns continue amid a dry and stagnant weather pattern. A Fire Danger Statement has been issued for this afternoon for all of western North Carolina and northeast Georgia. Critically low relative humidity and breezy conditions are likely to occur each of the next several afternoons through the weekend.
2. Hot and dry through Saturday with high temperatures near daily records in some locations outside of the mountains. A cold front may bring some rainfall to our area on Sunday, but any accumulations will likely be too small to improve drought conditions. Significantly cooler temperatures are expected early next week.

DISCUSSION
Key message 1: Fire weather concerns continue amid a dry and stagnant weather pattern. A Fire Danger Statement has been issued for this afternoon for all of western North Carolina and northeast Georgia.
Critically low relative humidity and breezy conditions are likely to occur each of the next several afternoons through the weekend.

Continued low-level southwesterly flow from a weak Bermuda surface ridge will filter through today. Despite the typical moisture return in this regime, deep boundary layer mixing will continue to tap into very dry air aloft, which will cause dewpoints to mix out during peak heating. Combine that with near-record highs this afternoon and RH values will dip between 25-30%, if not lower in some locations.
Winds at the top of the boundary layer (<=775mb) will be strong enough to produce breezy conditions (gusts up to 20-25 mph) as well.
As a result, at least Increased Fire Danger Statements will be issued for western NC and northeast GA this afternoon and likely again on Friday afternoon. Even if the criteria isn't fully met, low RH values, high heat stress, and very dry vegetation will enhance the risk for wildfire development. Expect this threat to linger into Saturday as well, so daily Fire Danger Statements remain possible through the rest of the week.

The Fire Danger Statement for all of western North Carolina was in coordination with the North Carolina Forest Service and is in effect from Noon to 8 PM today. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect from Noon to 8 PM today for northeast Georgia for ongoing dry fuels and RH values getting below the critical threshold of 30%. A Fire Danger Statement will likely be needed for all of western NC and northeast Georgia again Friday, as RH values continue to reach near-critical thresholds.

Key message 2: Hot and dry through Saturday with high temperatures near daily records in some locations outside of the mountains. A cold front may bring some rainfall to our area on Sunday, but any accumulations will likely be too small to improve drought condi- tions. Significantly cooler temperatures are expected early next week.

Broad upper ridging will get pushed off the Atlantic Coast later today and into Fri as an embedded upper shortwave trof approaches.
The trof will translate over the Carolinas Fri morning and move offshore Fri evening with heights rebounding quickly in its wake.
A much broader/deeper upper trof will pass just to our north late Sunday into Monday and push a robust cold front thru our area on Sunday. A weaker cold front does approach the western Carolinas this evening, however it continues to weaken/dissipate as it moves thru our CWA early Fri. We'll probably get some sct showers over the NC mtns, mostly along the NC/TN border region, but any precip amounts will likely be minimal (ie, < 0.1 inches). The more robust front on Sunday has the potential to bring more widespread showers to our area, however the latest model guidance continues to produce little in the way of accumulations outside of the NC mountains. At present, only the NC/TN border region is expected to receive more than about 0.1 inches from this frontal system. Unfortunately, it's still looking like any rainfall that we get from this system will have little impact on the current drought. While temperatures will be summer-like and approach daily records thru Sat, the humidity will remain lower. Minimum RH values in the 25 to 35% range are expected each afternoon thru the weekend, with values below 20% possible on Monday. In addition, gusty winds are expected across our area today, Saturday, and Sunday which will likely increase overall fire danger.
Fortunately, temperatures cool to near-normal for Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday with the passage of the cold front, however the airmass remains dry. Freezing temperatures still appear possible over por- tions of the NC mtns early Monday and frost-producing temperatures remain possible early Tuesday.

AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at all terminals. Winds will continue out of the southwest this morning and through the daytime period with additional high clouds. Winds will pick up in speed by the afternoon at 12-18 kts and gusts up to 20-25 kts for most TAF sites. KAVL will be tricky due to a cross-valley wind during the day. A weak front will move in from the west by tonight. This may send a stray shower towards KAVL, but an uptick in mid/upper-level clouds will be apparent, mainly overnight tonight. The front will cause the winds to toggle more north to northwest a few hours before daybreak Friday.

Outlook: VFR prevails the rest of the week and into the weekend.

CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 04-16

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 87 2006 42 1905 62 1945 26 1943 KCLT 89 2006 49 1890 64 1998 29 2008 1896 1991 1962 1945 KGSP 88 1888 54 1903 64 1945 24 1907

RECORDS FOR 04-17

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 89 1896 45 1890 63 1927 26 1904 KCLT 94 1896 47 1890 66 1896 30 2018 1949 KGSP 92 2006 51 1904 63 1927 25 1905

RECORDS FOR 04-18

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 90 1896 44 1921 60 1927 28 1905 1891 KCLT 93 1896 45 1983 66 1896 32 2001 KGSP 89 2002 51 1983 66 1927 28 1905 1967

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from noon EDT today through this evening for GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from noon EDT today through this evening for NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082- 501>510.
SC...None.