Lowndesville, SC Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lowndesville, SC

April 14, 2024 4:50 AM EDT (08:50 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:58 AM   Sunset 8:03 PM
Moonrise 10:25 AM   Moonset 12:55 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lowndesville, SC
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Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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FXUS62 KGSP 140739 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 339 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dry high pressure will linger to our south into early next week, allowing temperatures to warm well- above normal for mid April. Another frontal system will approach our area by the middle of next week, and could bring showers and thunderstorms to the region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 300 AM: Clear skies across the CWA under sfc/upper ridge centered over the lower MS Valley and Gulf of Mexico. A pocket of upper level moisture is seen on water vapor imagery upstream, in conjunction with a minor jet streak. This still appears capable of mountain wave cirrus, but any such clouds would come too late to preclude radiational cooling. Made minor adjustments to morning T/Td based on recent obs.

The sfc/upper ridge will migrate gradually eastward today; some patchy cirrus associated with weak upstream shortwave may replace the mtn-wave cirrus by afternoon, but still not likely enough to impact max temps. The day will be warmer owing to higher partial thicknesses and a warmer start than yesterday. While the Piedmont won't really experience downsloping as flow will be southwesterly due to the position of the ridge, abundant sunshine and initially light winds should result in rapid warming, and maxes look to end up around 10 above normal. Dewpoints may rebound a bit owing to the SW flow, but the warming should maintain deep mixing and RH still is expected to drop into the upper 20s percent across much of the area. The mixing appears better than many of the models would suggest, and furthermore the gradient will amplify a bit between the migrating ridge and weak shortwave and sfc low moving thru the Midwest. Thus, have leaned in favor of wind gusts toward the higher end of the guidance range. Despite these adjustments, it looks like we will fall short of the respective criteria for an Increased Fire Danger Statement in any of our states.

Tonight, winds will taper off nocturnally but a light SW breeze is expected to persist, and a slow increase in dewpoints should continue. Although radiational cooling is expected to be fairly strong, owing to higher thicknesses, mins look to remain a few degrees above normal.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 246 AM Sunday: The new work week kicks off Monday morning with a potent closed upper low over the Four Corners region and a belt of northern stream westerly flow draped along the Canadian border. Two well defined shortwave troughs will be embedded within the northern stream with the lead wave progged to be centered over the Great Lakes region/southeast Canada. Farther south, upper ridging extending from the Gulf of Mexico into the Lower Mississippi Valley will amplify ahead of the upstream Four Corners low. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to extend from southern Illinois into central Pennsylvania. This front will slowly ooze south into the Ohio Valley through the day on Monday, but southward progress will be limited as the front will be oriented parallel to the upper flow and become increasingly displaced from stronger forcing as the parent wave slides into New England.

There's good agreement amongst guidance that deep convection will initiate just south of the cold front where richer boundary layer moisture is able to pool along the front. Modest deep-layer vertical wind shear will help this activity organize into loose clusters from central Kentucky, across southern West Virginia, and into central/southern Virginia. Broad northwest flow will drive this activity towards east Tennessee and northern North Carolina by mid to late afternoon Monday. Uncertainty increases thereafter with regards to how far south any storms are able to make it. Previously mentioned ridging extending from the Gulf of Mexico will result in a gradual increase in heights across the area with a lack of forcing to support convection, especially as it propagates farther from the initiation zone near the cold front. Forecast soundings are also mixed as to whether a mid-level subsidence capping inversion can be overcome across western North Carolina. The NAM solution keeps the cap in place whereas most of the CAMs weaken the cap just enough to allow for at least isolated to scattered convection to spill into the northern half of the area. Should robust convection make it into the area, the environment will be supportive of a conditional severe threat. 25-35kts of deep-layer shear will be sufficient for loosely organized clusters. 1000-1500 J/kg of surface-based instability will also be present along with very steep lapse rates. Forecast soundings also depict a very deep and well mixed boundary layer with classic inverted-V profiles extending up to 800mb. Thus, any deeper convection/robust updrafts that make it into the area could pose a threat for damaging winds. A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms has been added by the Storm Prediction Center just to our north and may need to be extended south should future guidance come into better agreement on convection impacting the area. Otherwise, high temperatures on Monday will be quite warm in the low to mid 80s.

By Tuesday, amplified upper ridging will slide into the Appalachians as the Four Corners low ejects into the Great Plains. Strong warm advection across the Plains into the Ohio Valley will send the stalled cold front across the Ohio Valley north as a warm front.
Another round of northwest flow convection may develop along the frontal boundary, but a farther north position of the front would place most of this activity from Ohio, across West Virginia and into northeast North Carolina. A few showers and storms may graze the foothills/Piedmont mainly north of I-40, but confidence is low as heights continue to rise across the area as ridging builds in.
Temperatures will continue to be warm in the low to mid 80s, although increasing cloud cover may shave a degree or two off compared to Monday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 319 AM Sunday: Forecast confidence quickly wanes by mid to late week as guidance continues to struggle with the evolution of the synoptic pattern. The Plains trough will become absorbed into a deep longwave trough dropping out of the Canadian Prairies. This will result in a marked weakening of the wave with little forcing left across the Appalachians. Upstream convection across Tennessee on Wednesday will make a run at the area, but coverage east of the mountains will be spotty. Timing differences also become apparent, especially with regards to a diffuse frontal boundary that will also push into the region. By Thursday into late week and the weekend, the northern stream longwave trough will eventually slide towards the Great Lakes, with very broad zonal flow across much of the country. Another cold front will approach the area late week into the weekend, but very large timing differences are once again plaguing the forecast. Ensemble clusters also depict a wide range of solutions as the slow progress of the front combined with boundary parallel flow may ultimately result in slower timing and a prolonged period of at least low end rain chances until the boundary is able to fully clear the area.

AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR, initially SKC. Some mountain wave cirrus still may develop closer to daybreak with jet streak crossing the southern Appalachians, and a very weak shortwave approaching later in the day likely will generate patchy high altitude clouds as well. Winds will be calm in many areas until daybreak but otherwise varying between NW and SW. By mid-morning they should pick up from the SW. Deep mixing is likely to produce low end gusts around the region this afternoon. KAVL could experience some variability due to deep SW flow, but should trend back to NW late tonight. Winds probably won't go calm as quickly tonight with gradient tightening again.

Outlook: Some brief low VFR to MVFR clouds may develop Monday and Tuesday as a result of a weak frontal zone developing to our north. Otherwise VFR generally will persist through midweek under high pressure regime.

FIRE WEATHER
Dry and breezy conditions will develop again today, although relative humidity and wind gusts won't be quite as impactful on fire weather as they were Saturday. Fuel moisture is expected to be low. Some locations in NC mountain valleys and the foothills probably will meet criteria for an Increased Fire Danger Statement, but areas in the NC Piedmont most likely will fall just short of both wind and RH criteria. Further coordination with land managers will be done early in the day to determine the extent of any statements. In SC and GA, state criteria are not expected to be met and no statements are planned for today.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KEBA ELBERT COUNTYPATZ FIELD,GA 12 sm15 minW 0410 smClear52°F43°F71%30.13
KAND ANDERSON RGNL,SC 18 sm54 mincalm10 smClear50°F39°F66%30.13
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