Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Camarillo, CA

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...14/216 PM.

Winds today didn't quite meet up with expectations but that was a good thing. Overall winds hovered in the 20-40 mph range today with some isolated gusts to around 60 in the higher mountains.
Those were all in the standard Santa Ana corridor from Acton to Oxnard.

Going forward models do show a slight uptick in winds later tonight into Wednesday but still well below the strongest winds of early last week and certainly no mountain waves expected. High wind warnings have been downgraded to wind advisories through 3 pm Wednesday with just some isolated 60mph gusts in the usual favored mountain locations. With models continuing to favor more of an easterly component with this event, winds in the Palisades fire area are expected to remain on the lower side of wind forecast. With weakening cold advection aloft tomorrow temperatures area-wide should warm at least a few degrees, but more so across coastal LA/Ventura counties where highs in the mid to upper 70s are possible.

Lighter offshore flow will continue into Thursday morning before shifting to southwest in the afternoon as the area gets its first taste of a sea breeze in over a week. Could still see some wind gusts to around 30 mph in the morning before shutting down by noon. Highs will be a little warmer inland but the return to onshore flow should bring cooling to coastal areas. Then 3-6 degrees of cooling Friday with possibly even some marine layer clouds returning to coastal areas.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...14/224 PM.

Benign weather expected to continue through the weekend with light to moderate onshore flow and highs 4-8 degrees below normal, especially for coast and valleys. Areas of night and morning low clouds and fog expected for coast and some valleys with late or possibly no clearing at some beaches.

On Monday a rather strong upper low will drop into the Great Basin. This will begin a shift back to offshore flow that likely will peak Monday night into Tuesday. Latest ensemble solutions are favoring a moderate wind event with a 30-40% of a strong event, but very low chance of a mountain wave event.

AVIATION
14/1735Z.

At 18Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor inversion.

High confidence in VFR conds through the period. There is a 10% chance of MVFR conds in smoke for the Los Angeles County coastal terminals. Wind group changes may be off by +/- 3 hours.
There will be areas of LLWS, and moderate to locally strong UDDF and turbulence, especially near the foothills and mtns. Winds may be erratic at times, changing quickly between gusty and light.

KLAX...High confidence in VFR conds. There is a 10% chance of 4-5SM FU and/or BKN025 smoke layer. There is a 20% chance of an east wind component reaching 8 kt between 14Z and 20Z Wednesday.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR conds. Moderate confidence in winds. Maximum wind gusts may be off +/- 10 kts and wind group changes may be off +/- 3 hours. LLWS is likely through most of the period. Moderate to locally strong turbulence and UDDF will also affect the terminal during the period.

MARINE
14/218 PM.

In the Outer Waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level E-NE winds will persist in the southern zone (PZZ676) thru Wed afternoon, with a lull likely this afternoon into early evening. Local Gale force gusts are possible (30-40% chance) late tonight/early Wed in PZZ676. There is a 30% chance for SCA winds to continue Wed afternoon through Thurs afternoon, but they may be confined to the northwest portion of the zone. Otherwise, winds and seas will be below SCA levels thru Sat night. There is a 20-30% chance of SCA level NW winds Fri night into Sat mainly south of Point Conception.

In the inner waters N of Pt. Sal, except for a 20% chance of SCA level NE winds nearshore during the morning hours Wed, SCA level conds are not expected thru Sat night.

In the Santa Barbara Channel, nearshore winds have trended lighter, thus the Gale Warning was delayed and a SCA is now in effect before Gale force winds are expected to reestablish (70% chance) late tonight and continue thru early Wed afternoon from Ventura to eastern Santa Cruz Island southward. SCA level E to NE winds look to continue into Thurs afternoon (60-70% chance), possibly becoming more widespread by Thurs morning across the Channel. Then benign conds are expected thru Sat night.

In the southern inner waters, the Gale Warning was delayed due to winds coming in much lower than expected, and a SCA is now in effect before Gale force winds are expected to reestablish (60% chance) late tonight and continue thru noon Wed. These winds will be mostly from Malibu to Point Mugu and out to Anacapa Island.
Then, SCA level NE winds may periodically continue into Thurs morning in the same area. Elsewhere, winds have also trended down. However, SCA level winds are still likely (50% chance)
through the San Pedro Channel and out to Avalon and Two Harbors this evening through Wednesday morning. Chances for brief Gale force wind gusts have dropped to around 10% during this time period. Benign conds are then expected thru Fri.

BEACHES
14/133 PM.

Another round of moderate to locally strong Santa Ana Winds have made it to the region, creating potentially hazardous conditions nearshore and through the San Pedro Channel. Although winds have overall trended lighter than initially expected, NE to E winds may create large breaking waves to Avalon and Two Harbors Late tonight into Wednesday late morning, potentially creating hazardous conditions and possible minor coastal flooding.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Freeze Warning remains in effect from midnight tonight to 9 AM PST Wednesday for zones 38-343-346>348-357. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory now in effect until 3 PM PST Wednesday for zones 88-354-355-358-362-369>380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Freeze Warning remains in effect from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM PST Wednesday for zones 344-381>383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Red Flag Warning in effect until 6 PM PST Wednesday for zones 288-345-352>358-362-369>374-376-377-380. (See LAXRFWLOX).
Red Flag Warning in effect until 3 PM PST Thursday for zones 375-378-379. (See LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Wednesday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect from 3 AM to 3 PM PST Wednesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect from 3 AM to noon PST Wednesday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until noon PST Wednesday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).