Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ogden, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Cold air advection following a cold front will keep high temperatures in the 40s today. Clear skies and full sunshine will do little to alleviate wind chills in the mid 30s due to gusts around 20 mph today. Winds become light or calm later in the day which is expected to continue overnight. Efficient radiational cooling overnight will see most of the area drop into the lower 20s with isolated cold spots dropping into the teens.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Broad mid-level troughing overhead on Thu shifts east Fri as surface high moves overhead. Weak shortwave passes south of the area Thu morning followed by the larger scale 5h trough. Not much moisture around, precipitable water struggles to rise much above 0.30" by end of Thu, so despite cooling aloft do not expecting much if any cloud cover. The troughs will kick up winds a bit, leading to a breezy day, but winds have a little more of a southerly component given the location of the center of the surface high to the south-southeast.
This will allow for some enhanced warm advection, pushing temperatures into the lower 50s for much of the area. A weak, dry cold front moves across the area Thu night followed by high pressure for Fri. Region will be in a weak cold to neutral advection regime which will lead to highs similar to Thu. Some weak warm advection late Fri night as the center of the high slips off the coast. This will push lows Fri night a bit warmer than Thu night.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Large 5h longwave trough sets up over the eastern CONUS this weekend following the passage of a low pressure/cold front combo Sat night into Sun. Warm advection ahead of the low/front will keep temperatures above climo Sat through Sun. Lows Sat night will be warmer than some of the recent highs, mid to upper 40s. Mid-level trough pushes the front off the coast later Sun. Another arctic air mass quickly moves over the region Sun night into Mon returning temperatures below to well below normal. Southern branch of the jet stream will remain active with a system moving across the Gulf Coast Tue. Have Tue dry for now, although there is a small selection of guidance that does bring some precipitation to the region later in the day Tue. There is at least some very low potential for frozen precipitation late Tue with slightly better chances Tue night. It is far out in the forecast, and confidence in timing and details is low, but it is worth a mention.

AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR. Expect northerly winds this morning with gusts to 20 knots prior to 17Z. Lighter NW winds are expected this afternoon as gusts subside.

Extended Outlook... VFR through the end of the week. Flight restrictions expected with rain and a cold front this weekend.

MARINE
Through Thursday...
Gusts in excess of 25 knots this morning will gradually weaken late this morning and into the afternoon. Seas 3-4 feet will steadily improve through sunset, becoming around 1-2 feet tonight. Light northerly winds continue tonight around 5-10 knots.

Thursday through Sunday...
Enhanced southwest flow on Thu with speeds on the high end of the 15-20 kt range. Weak, dry cold front crosses the waters early Fri with offshore flow developing. Post front gradient is on the weak side and flow quickly becomes northeast as the center of the high moves overhead. Southerly flow returns Sat and continues Sun as cold front approaches from the west.
Limited enhancement of the gradient will keep speeds under 20 kt. Front passes later Sun with enhanced offshore flow developing once the cold air arrives. Period of southerly flow Thu and again Sat into Sun will lead to an increase in seas.
Shorter duration of the southerly flow Thu will keep seas 3- 5 ft, but prolonged period Sat into Sun is likely to result in seas 4-6 ft Sat night and Sun.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ250- 252-254-256.