Wednesday, November25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
San Buenaventura (Ventura), CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 4:49PM Wednesday November 25, 2020 2:59 AM PST (10:59 UTC) Moonrise 3:37PMMoonset 3:18AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 1147 Pm Pst Tue Nov 24 2020
Tonight..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 13 seconds.
Wed..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 13 seconds.
Wed night..Western portion, W to nw winds 15 to 20 kt with local gusts to 25 kt. Eastern portion, W winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 13 seconds, building to 5 to 7 ft at 12 seconds after midnight.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 5 to 7 ft at 11 seconds.
Thu night..Eastern portion, ne winds 10 to 15 kt becoming 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Western portion, sw winds 5 to 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft dominant period 14 seconds.
Fri..Eastern portion, ne winds 20 to 30 kt becoming 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Western portion, ne winds 5 to 10 kt becoming variable 10 kt or less in the afternoon. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft dominant period 14 seconds.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 13 seconds.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft.
PZZ600 1147 Pm Pst Tue Nov 24 2020
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 07z, or 11 pm pst, a 1029 mb high pressure center was located 750 nm northwest of point conception and a weak thermal trough was over the southern california bight. Strong nw winds and high seas will develop across the outer waters late Wednesday and Thursday, then gusty northeast winds will develop across parts of the inner waters Thursday night into Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near San Buenaventura (Ventura), CA
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location: 34.25, -119.31     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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FXUS66 KLOX 250654 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1054 PM PST Tue Nov 24 2020

SYNOPSIS. 24/953 PM.

There will be patchy overnight and morning coastal fog with notably cooler temperatures through Wednesday. Gusty offshore winds develop in the mountains Wednesday night, then spread across Ventura and Los Angeles counties Thanksgiving Day and persist through Friday. Afternoon temperatures warm Thursday into the weekend.

SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI). 24/802 PM.

***UPDATE***

Latest satellite and surface observations indicate generally clear skies this evening except for some stratus/fog across the coastal waters. Current sounding data indicates marine inversion ranging from around 1200 feet across the Central Coast to about 600 feet south of Point Conception. Surface gradients remain weakly offshore.

For the immediate short-term, main issue will be the potential for any coastal stratus/fog. Based on current inversion depth and weak offshore flow, expect any stratus development to be very limited overnight. Likely, there will be some patchy stratus/fog around the Vandenberg AFB area and potentially the coastal plain of Los Angeles county. Not overly confident in the potential for stratus development overnight, but enough of a chance to leave the current mention in the forecast. Otherwise, no issues are anticipated overnight.

Current forecast has good handle on the immediate short term. So, no significant updates are planned at this time.

***From Previous Discussion***

Light offshore flow today reached down into the Ventura and Los Angeles County valleys, but stopped short of the coasts. There have been wind gusts of 25-35 mph in many of the mountain and foothill locations today along with humidities in the upper teens and 20s. A weak N-S gradient remains in place tonight for some locally gusty winds to 25 mph through canyons of the Santa Ynez Range, but the LAX-DAG gradient becomes neutral by Wednesday morning. Expect clear skies overnight, then some return of low clouds/fog as a weak eddy spins up for the south coast. There may be patchy fog in the Santa Ynez Valley as well. With onshore pressure gradients increasing tomorrow in response to a low pressure trough moving into the PacNW, there is potential for low clouds drifting into beach areas during the day. It will definitely be cooler than today as heights fall and seabreezes increase. W winds will increase over the Antelope Valley Wednesday afternoon, gusts 40 mph possible.

Wednesday night the upper level trough deepens over the Great Basin with northerly flow buckling across southern CA. Winds increase first over the mountains including the Santa Ynez Range, but more so over the San Gabriels. Gusts of 40-50 mph looks likely prior to sunrise on Thanksgiving and they quickly shift over toward northeast, or a classic Santa Ana direction. Outside of some low clouds impacting the LA coast early Thursday, skies will remain clear. By Thursday afternoon we will have good cold advection from the Great Basin, an offshore pressure gradient increasing over -4 mb, and very good wind alignment well above 700mb. Due to the colder air it will take some time to drop humidities down into the teens and red flag territory, but that is likely to occur in the afternoon from the mountains to the coasts. Gusts of 25-35 mph will be likely for the coasts/valleys Thursday afternoon. A fire weather watch has been issued for this scenario (please see the fire discussion below).

Peak winds are likely to occur after dark Thursday night and into Friday morning with NAM LAX-DAG pressure gradient reaching -7.5 mb and GFS hitting about -5.6 mb. Damaging wind gusts of 50-60 mph in the mountains look reasonable and will be capable of downed trees and powerlines. Northeast winds will also be gusting 35-50 mph across the valleys and coasts as well with humidities tanking into the single digits and lower teens in many areas Friday morning. Temperatures will be warmer for the valleys and especially coastal areas due to downslope effects, but closer to normal (70s). Critical fire weather conditions will persist into Friday evening, but the wind speeds will decrease Friday night.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE). 24/141 PM.

By Saturday morning we will be on the last legs of wind issues as the upper level support with the Santa Ana subsides. The main story for the rest of the holiday weekend will be very dry air (single digit humidities at times) and warming temperatures well into the 70s and lower 80s even at many coastal locations. Humidity recoveries will be poor at night so brief critical fire weather conditions are a lingering concern through Sunday.

The forecast beyond Sunday gets challenging due to inconsistencies with deterministic model data. The GFS and GEM both indicate falling heights and a closed low moving across CA by Tuesday or Wednesday, while the ECMWF keeps a ridge in place with another inside slider over the Rockies. Previous GFS runs have been in favor of very dry conditions through at least midweek and that seems more in line with ECM ensembles. There is a hint of lowering heights and a minimal threat of precipitation in the ensemble data toward the end of next week. For now, will continue the persistent forecast of a very dry air mass and weak offshore flow with above normal temperatures through Wednesday, Dec. 2nd.

AVIATION. 25/0652Z.

At 0330z at KLAX . The inversion was surface based. The top of the inversion was around 1850 feet with a temperature of about 16 degrees Celsius.

Overall . Moderate to high confidence in the current TAFs. There is a seventy five percent chance that LIFR/IFR conditions will return to KLAX and KLGB 12z-22z, and a thirty percent chance at the other coastal sites. Otherwise and elsewhere, VFR conditions will prevail.

KLAX . Moderate confidence in the current TAF. There is a seventy five percent chance that LIFR/IFR conditions will return 12z-22z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. There will not be any east winds greater than 8 kts.

KBUR . High confidence in the current TAF. VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period.

MARINE. 24/802 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas developing on Wednesday and continuing through Thursday night for all the Outer Waters with a 30% chance of Gale force winds Wednesday afternoon and night. On Friday, high confidence in winds/seas dropping below SCA level across PZZ670/673, but high confidence in SCA level northeast winds across PZZ676 with a 20% chance of Gale force winds. For Saturday and Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. Winds and seas will increase to SCA levels Wednesday afternoon/evening and continue through Thursday night. For Friday through Sunday, wind and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Thursday, generally high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels although there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel Wednesday evening. For Thursday night and Friday, moderate confidence in SCA level northeast winds from Ventura southward with a 30% chance of Gale force winds. For Friday night through Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

BEACHES. 24/1204 PM.

An increasing long-period northwest swell will bring high surf to the beaches along the Central Coast Wednesday afternoon through Thanksgiving Day. Surf and swells will peak Thursday morning at 13 to 16 feet with local sets to 20 feet along west to northwest facing beaches. Strong rip currents are likely and beach erosion is possible.

Most of the swell energy avoids the southern California bight. Beaches south of Point Conception will have elevated surf and a high risk of rip currents Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day, but a high surf advisory is not expected at this time.

FIRE WEATHER. 24/1246 PM.

After quiet conditions on Wednesday, a moderate to locally strong Santa Ana wind event will potentially bring critical fire weather conditions across Los Angeles and Ventura counties Thursday afternoon into Friday evening. While gusty winds will begin to impact much of the mountains and valleys as early as Thursday morning, humidity levels will initially remain well above critical levels. By Thursday afternoon, humidity levels are expected to fall into the teens coinciding with the gusty northeast winds. The peak of the Santa Ana wind event is expected Thursday evening through Friday morning when wind gusts up to 60 mph will be possible across the mountains, along with gusts of 35 to 50 mph across wind favored coastal and valley areas. Offshore winds will begin to slowly diminish Friday afternoon into evening, however humidity levels will continue to lower to between 8 and 15 percent. Offshore winds are expected to be weaker over the weekend, however lingering very dry conditions will continue to bring elevated to brief critical fire weather conditions to all of Southwest California. Dry offshore flow may persist into the middle of next week.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CA . High Surf Advisory in effect from 3 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PST Friday for zones 34-35. (See LAXCFWLOX). Fire Weather Watch in effect from Thursday afternoon through Friday evening for zones 240-241-244>246-253-254-288-547-548. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ . Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Wednesday to 9 AM PST Thursday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM Wednesday to 9 AM PST Thursday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 AM Wednesday to 9 AM PST Thursday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (FRI-TUE).

Thursday night and Friday will be a critical fire weather period with a moderate to strong Santa Ana wind event. Rapid fire spread, downed trees and/or powerlines will be possible. An extended dry and warmer pattern is expected Saturday through Monday with persistent elevated fire weather conditions.

PUBLIC . EB AVIATION . Kj MARINE . RAT BEACHES . MW FIRE . Gomberg SYNOPSIS . Kj

weather.gov/losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 23 mi83 min NNE 2.9 G 4.1 53°F 1018.3 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 28 mi39 min W 1.9 G 5.8 57°F 58°F1018.8 hPa56°F
46251 36 mi63 min 60°F3 ft
46025 - Santa Monica Basin - 33NM West Southwest of Santa Monica, CA 37 mi39 min NNW 1.9 G 3.9 57°F 58°F1018.5 hPa56°F
46268 42 mi59 min 56°F 59°F1 ft
46221 - Santa Monica Bay, CA (028) 45 mi63 min 63°F2 ft
ICAC1 - 9410840 - Santa Monica Pier 46 mi59 min NE 8 G 8 54°F 59°F1019.5 hPa (+0.4)

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oxnard, Oxnard Airport, CA6 mi68 minE 49.00 miFair45°F43°F93%1018.3 hPa
Camarillo, Camarillo Airport, CA12 mi64 minNE 49.00 miFair48°F42°F80%1019.2 hPa
Point Mugu, Naval Air Warfare Center, CA13 mi67 minN 07.00 miFair44°F39°F85%1018.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOXR

Wind History from OXR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3NE5NE6NE5NE6NE6CalmW4SW6SW7SW7W8W8W5W4CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmE5E4E4
1 day agoE3E3E4E5E4E5CalmSW6SW7W7SW8SW7W8CalmCalmNE6SE4CalmE4E3E3E3E4E3
2 days agoCalmW6NW4--NW3W10W7W8W8W11W10W7SW5W4CalmCalmE3E5E6E6E6E6CalmE6

Tide / Current Tables for Ventura, California
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Ventura
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:04 AM PST     0.96 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:18 AM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:32 AM PST     5.15 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:40 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 01:07 PM PST     1.14 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:36 PM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:48 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:46 PM PST     3.94 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.21.82.73.74.65.15.14.73.92.92.11.41.11.31.92.63.33.83.93.73.12.41.7

Tide / Current Tables for Port Hueneme, California
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Port Hueneme
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:01 AM PST     0.96 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:17 AM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:33 AM PST     5.15 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:39 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 01:04 PM PST     1.14 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:35 PM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:48 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:47 PM PST     3.94 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.21.82.73.74.65.15.14.73.92.921.41.11.31.92.63.33.83.93.73.12.31.7

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.