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PZZ655 Inner Waters From Point Mugu To San Mateo Pt. Ca Including Santa Catalina And Anacapa Islands- 244 Am Pdt Sat Sep 23 2023
Today..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 ft at 9 seconds and S 2 ft at 14 seconds.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 20 kt. Local gusts to 25 kt in the evening. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. Mixed swell W 2 ft at 7 seconds and S 2 ft at 14 seconds.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. Mixed swell W 2 ft at 6 seconds and S 2 ft at 13 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 20 kt. Local gusts to 25 kt in the evening. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 6 seconds and S 2 ft at 13 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 3 to 5 ft dominant period 7 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Mon night..W winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the evening, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft dominant period 8 seconds.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft.

PZZ600 244 Am Pdt Sat Sep 23 2023
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park...at 09z, or 2 am pdt, a 1021 mb surface ridge was about 675 nm west of los angeles, while a 1009 mb thermal low was near the california-arizona border. Light to moderate west to northwest flow over the coastal waters this morning will increase over the weekend. Gales and hazardous seas are possible across the outer waters Monday through Wednesday.

FXUS66 KLOX 231019 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 319 AM PDT Sat Sep 23 2023

SYNOPSIS
23/318 AM.

A slow warming trend will continue for most areas through the middle of next week with temperatures getting back close to normal levels by Tuesday and Wednesday. Tropical moisture will be exiting the area later today which will allow night and morning low clouds and fog to expand across coast and valleys. Cooler weather is expected the latter half of next week as low pressure returns and onshore flow increases.

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...23/246 AM.

Mid and high level moisture starting to exit the area to the east early this morning. This will result in more sunshine this afternoon. In the meantime a brief sprinkle or light shower can't be ruled out through the morning hours. The added moisture in the air mass is keeping temperatures warmer this morning and interfering with the stratus development. As the moisture aloft decreases through the early morning we should see increasing stratus coverage but definitely a low confidence forecast and better chances north of Pt Conception.

Otherwise, a rather low impact day across the area with temperatures still 5-10 degrees below normal on average with isolated areas (mostly in the coastal mountains) as much a 15-20 degrees below normal. Overall highs today should be ever so slightly warmer but likely less humid with that tropical moisture shifting east.

Very few changes in the pattern Sunday and Monday with again 1-3 degrees of warming each day, mostly valleys and other inland locations. Marine layer stratus expected to be a persistent feature in most coastal and coastal valley locations, but likely much less of that across southern Santa Barbara County where breezy Sundowner winds are expected during the evenings, especially by Monday.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...23/316 AM.

The long wave pattern across the US will remain in place with troughs along the west and east coasts and high pressure across the plains. A weakening cold front from a unseasonably cold upper low over the Pac NW will move through northern California later Monday into Tuesday but will dissipate before reaching central California. The dry frontal passage will likely provide an additional boost of northerly flow across the Central Coast, southern Santa Barbara County, and adjacent coastal waters as well as the I5 corridor area Tuesday into Wednesday. EPS solutions show this as well with winds at Sandberg peaking at 30-40 mph.

Following the passage of the dry front gradients will be weakening and even turning slightly offshore based on the latest NAEFS gradient forecasts, bottoming out Wednesday with LAX-BFL around -4mb and LAX-DAG around -1mb. Not surprisingly virtually all the temperature guidance products show temperatures peaking Tue and Wed with highs finally getting back to near normal and possibly even slightly above normal. Night and morning marine layer will likely be at a minimum during this period.

This will be short-lived, however as yet another cold upper low moves onshore over WA and OR Thursday into Friday. This will quickly turn gradients back onshore leading to cooler temperatures once again and a deepening marine layer. There is very strong consensus in the model clusters with this pattern so confidence is quite high that a significant cooling trend will develop towards the end of next week. At this time precipitation looks unlikely as most of the EPS and NAEFS solutions are dry through next Saturday.
However, looking beyond that there are a few more solutions showing some precip the following Sunday or Monday if the upper low continues to dig south through the state as a few solutions are showing.

AVIATION
23/1006Z.

Around 0830Z, the marine layer depth was near 1800 feet deep at KLAX. The top of the inversion was near 3300 feet with a temperature around 18 degrees Celsius.

High confidence in the forecast for desert terminals. Low-to- moderate confidence in the forecast for coastal and valley terminals. Higher confidence in timing relative to flight categories.

For coastal and valley terminals, there is a low-to-moderate chance of IFR to MVFR conditions through 17Z, and again after 06Z Sunday.

KLAX...There is a 30 percent chance of MVFR conditions through 17Z. After 06Z Sunday, there is a 40 percent chance of IFR to MVFR conditions increasing to 50 percent by 12Z Sunday. Any easterly winds will be less than 7 knots.

KBUR...There is a 20 percent chance of MVFR conditions through 16Z. After 10Z Sunday, there is a 30 percent chance of IFR to MVFR conditions. No wind impacts are expected at this time.

MARINE
23/317 AM.

High confidence in the current forecast through Tuesday morning, then moderate-to-high confidence thereafter. Higher confidence exists in winds relative to seas.

For the waters from northwest through southwest of the Channel Island, the chance for SCA level winds will increase each day from through Monday. The chances for SCA level winds will increase from 40-60 percent by this afternoon to 50-70 percent by Sunday afternoon. By Monday, there is a 80-100 percent of SCA levels winds. Seas will build to SCA levels between Monday and Tuesday. Widespread SCA conditions are very likely from Tuesday through Thursday with a moderate-to-high chance for Gale Force wind. Hazardous seas are likely between Tuesday and Thursday.

For the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, winds and seas will generally remain below SCA levels through Monday. The chance for SCA level winds will increase from 20-30 percent Sunday to 40-50 percent Monday. Widespread SCA conditions are very likely between Tuesday and Thursday, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. There is a moderate chance for Gale Force winds between Tuesday and Thursday.

Inside the southern California bight, there is a 30-50 percent chance of SCA level winds each afternoon and evening through Sunday evening. The chances for SCA level winds will increase to 50-70 percent Monday, then to 70-90 percent by Tuesday afternoon.
The highest chances are during the afternoon and evening hours across the western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel. There is a moderate-to-high chance of widespread SCA conditions (winds and seas) between Tuesday and Thursday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Sunday for zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

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Mugu Lagoon (ocean pier)
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Sat -- 06:45 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:38 AM PDT     3.46 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:02 AM PDT     3.38 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:18 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:27 PM PDT     4.96 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:51 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mugu Lagoon (ocean pier), California, Tide feet

Port Hueneme
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Sat -- 06:45 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:45 AM PDT     3.51 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:04 AM PDT     3.53 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:19 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:34 PM PDT     5.07 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:52 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Hueneme, California, Tide feet

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