Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Moorpark, CA

.SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)...13/929 PM.

***UPDATE***

High temperatures trended about 2 to 6 degrees warmer near the coasts as the marine layer eroded away quickly today as upper level flow shifted to the north. This shift lead to a significant cooling over the interior (8 to 15 degrees). Low confidence in the reformation of marine layer clouds tonight, will most likely see less extensive low clouds over the next few days. Generally benign conditions are expected for the next few days, aside from some gusty, sub- advisory level winds for the Antelope Valley and foothills areas. Saturday, wind advisories may be needed from the San Luis Obispo County coast south to the western Santa Ynez Range.

***From Previous Discussion***

Overall, 12Z models in good synoptic agreement through the short term period. At upper levels, a flat ridge will develop over the area through Friday with an inside slider dropping into the Great Basin on Saturday. At the surface, moderate onshore flow will continue to the east with increasing northwesterly flow developing on Friday/Saturday.

Forecast-wise for the short term, no significant issues are expected. With only minor changes in H5 heights, the marine inversion is expected to remain rather deep (around 2500 feet or greater in depth). So, in theory, the areal coverage of stratus each night should be rather extensive (well into the coastal valleys). However with the developing northwest flow and the inversion not being too strong, the stratus coverage could end up being less than in the current forecast. So, confidence in the stratus forecast is low to moderate. Other than any marine layer clouds, skies should remain mostly clear through the weekend.

As for winds, do not anticipate any widespread advisory-level winds through Thursday, just typically gusty southwesterly winds across interior sections. However for Friday and Saturday, as the northwesterly winds increase, there will be a chance of winds increasing to advisory levels (gusts 40-55 MPH) across the usual spots (Interstate 5 Corridor and the Santa Ynez Range). So, future shifts will need to monitor that potential closely.

Finally as for temperatures, will expect a gradual warming trend west of the mountains through Saturday (with temperatures topping out in the 70s to lower 80s on Saturday). However for interior sections, the warming trend will continue through Friday, but Saturday will experience several degrees of cooling as the inside slider moves into the Great Basin.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...13/150 PM.

For the extended, the excitement levels look to remain on the low side. Models indicate the inside slider will move across the Great Basin on Sunday with some form of upper level trough remaining over the area through early next week.

Forecast-wise, main "concern" will be the winds. With the inside slider, gusty northwesterly winds will continue across the area on Sunday with a decent chance of advisory-level winds across the Interstate 5 Corridor and the Santa Ynez Range. For Monday through Wednesday, no significant wind issues are expected as moderate onshore pressure gradients will prevail with the typical gusty southwesterly winds across interior sections.

As for temperatures, there will be some area-wide cooling on Sunday. However for Monday through Wednesday, there will be a gradual warming trend across the area. By Wednesday, afternoon temperatures are expected to generally be in the mid 70s to mid 80s.

Finally with respect to cloud cover, there will continue to be night and morning low clouds and fog west of mountains each day.
Otherwise, mostly clear and dry conditions can be expected.

AVIATION
14/0250Z.

At 00Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1500 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 3200 ft with a temperature of 18 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for desert airfields (KPMD & KWJF).

Moderate to low confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off +/- 2 hours and flight minimums off by one category. Expecting mostly MVFR/IFR conditions, but brief LIFR conditions are possible for KSMX. Clouds may arrive 2-3 hrs later than forecast, or not at all.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival and clearing times of CIGs may be off +/- 2 hours. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. No wind issues expected.

MARINE
13/926 PM.

For the outer waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island, high confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds and seas lasting through at least Thursday Night. There is a HIGH risk of STRONG Gale Force winds as early as Friday and peaking over the weekend, with large 10-15+ feet steep seas.

SCA conditions likely for the nearshore Central Coast waters each afternoon and evening through Thursday, with stronger winds and building seas Friday with a HIGH risk of GALES Saturday into Sunday. There is also a moderate chance for gales across the Santa Barbara Channel and the western portion of the southern waters Saturday into Sunday.

GALE WATCHES have been issued. Refer to MWWLOX for details.

BEACHES
13/927 PM.

Over the weekend, the combination of high winds and seas could result in hazardous surfing conditions and minor coastal flooding especially across more unprotected west-facing beaches such as along the Ventura coastline. Stay tuned for future updates.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Watch in effect from Saturday morning through Sunday evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Friday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Watch in effect from Friday morning through late Sunday night for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Friday for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Watch in effect from Friday afternoon through late Sunday night for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 PM PDT Friday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Watch in effect from Friday evening through late Sunday night for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).