Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Porters Neck, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
High pressure north of the area is quickly translating west to east this afternoon and this evening. Northerly flow is rapidly turning northeastward and eventually eastward over the next several hours. This should limit radiational cooling potential and keep lows in the mid and upper 40s inland, lower 50s near the coast.

There is quite a bit of spread for low temperatures tonight.
Onshore flow and increasing boundary layer winds could produce a large contrast between coastal locations and rural areas inland that are able to decouple during the evening. Cooling during the fist several hours after sunset will occur rapidly. Cooler and drier air to the north (also in lighter BL winds) is likely to expand this discrepancy. I blended NBM with some of the warmer hi-res guidance and GFS to capture the warmer temps along the coast and to the south.

Winds turn south and southwesterly on Friday. As a surface trough develops on Friday afternoon, boundary layer moisture increases with the southerly return flow and sea breeze. Warmer temperatures and shallow cloud depths could produce a stray shower or sprinkle during the afternoon. Measurable precip will be unlikely due to the poor depth of moisture. Sprinkles are more likely near the coast with the strongest onshore flow.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Unseasonably warm and relatively quiet weather in store for the short term with decent WAA across the Southeast. Low temps both Friday and Saturday night will run 10-15 degrees above normal, with upper 50s Friday night and around 60F Saturday night. High temp Saturday in the upper 70s. A cold front moving across the western Carolinas Friday night looks to stall north of our area Saturday, with any showers dissipating before reaching the CWA
Currently carrying a dry forecast during the day Saturday. Pops increase Saturday night for scattered showers, with isolated thunder possible, as WAA increases.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Warm weather continues Sunday and could see highs reach 80F in the afternoon. A potent upper trough will be digging down into the lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday, leading to intensifying surface low moving across the Northeast and an attending cold front to pass through our area late Sunday. Given warm, moist airmass ahead of the front (with dewpoints in the 60s), could have enough instability for scattered thunderstorms ahead of and along the cold front. Shear maxima trails behind the front, as the upper trough doesn't move across the Carolinas until late Monday, but there is enough shear late Sunday to keep an eye out for isolated severe threat.

The main story remains the airmass change behind the cold front. 850F temps drop from 13C Sunday afternoon to -5 to -9C by Monday evening and PWATs drop to less than 0.2". The high temps on Monday will likely take place at midnight at the start of the day, with temps dropping to low to mid 40s by Monday morning before struggling into the 50s Monday afternoon. Strong PVA moves across the area late Monday, but with virtually no moisture to work with we might not even see any clouds with it.
Tuesday morning remains the coldest temperatures of the forecast period, with widespread freezing temperatures (28-31F). With strong WSW winds, there is a chance for freezing temps to make it all the way to the coastline as well. These winds will also lead to a bit of a wind chill Tuesday morning, with apparent temps in the low 20s. Visit www.weather.gov/ilm/freeze for more information about average first fall freezes and other statistics for NE SC and SE NC.

High temps on Tuesday are forecasted near 50F, which is just a bit higher than typical low temps this time of year. CAA starts to weaken late Tuesday as low-level ridge moves across the Southeast. Current forecast for Tuesday night is still in the 30s, but not as cold as Monday night. Temperatures slowly warm to near normal for middle of next week.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
High confidence in VFR through 18Z Friday. High pressure will traverse the region this evening. Other than some mid level clouds, skies remain mostly clear, especially inland. Increasing boundary layer winds will keep fog chances low. A few sprinkles may develop for coastal areas on Friday afternoon as winds turn southerly.

Extended Outlook...VFR conditions are expected to continue through early Sunday. Gusty winds will develop on Sunday ahead of a strong cold front. A few thunderstorms will also be possible during the frontal passage. VFR returns early next week.

MARINE
Through Friday...High pressure will force a gradual transition from northeast and easterly winds this afternoon. Easterly flow overnight will increase as the gradient tightens. Southeast winds veer to southerly during the day on Friday with a few isolated showers around the nearshore waters near a developing sea breeze. Winds will be below 15 knots through the end of the period. Seas 2-4 feet.

Friday Night through Tuesday...WAA will keep winds out of the southwest through the weekend, generally around 10-15 kts before increasing Sunday afternoon as a strong cold front approaches from the west. Seas 2-3 ft Friday night through early Sunday, with mix of SW wind wave and SE swell, increasing to 3-5 ft by late Sunday due to building wind wave. Cold front will move across the coastal waters Sunday night and could see scattered thunderstorms ahead of and along the front. Gusty offshore winds develop by Monday morning and persist through early Tuesday, potentially reaching SCA criteria due to strong CAA behind the front. Seas linger around 3-4 ft Monday and Monday night before improving on Tuesday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.