Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Topsail Beach, NC

UPDATE
No big changes necessary from the previous forecast with this update.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Key Messages/Highlights: *Patchy dense fog possible early this morning and late tonight *Temps near to slightly above normal through tonight *Max heat indices today mainly in the mid 90s

Confidence: *Moderate to High

Details: A stationary front across the area this morning will dissipate today with high pressure at the low-mid levels strengthening across the area. After morning fog dissipate pretty quickly after sunrise, expect a mostly dry day with mostly isolated showers/storms as early as late morning into this evening along the sea breeze so best rain chances will be east of I-95. Limited instability/shear will prevent any significant severe storm risk. More low clouds/fog look to return late tonight. Temps are expected to be near to slightly above normal, with highs today generally around 90 around the coast and low/mid 90s inland, with lows tonight mainly in the lower 70s, except mid 70s along the coast.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A mid/upper ridge will build eastward from the MS Valley during Sunday and Monday. During this time moisture will be limited to the H9-H75 layer, and could see some showers/t-storms along the sea breeze Sunday. However, as H5 heights continue to increase across the area Monday the limited moisture and stronger lid should suppress convection. Otherwise, the mid/upper ridge will support much warmer temperatures, and with the humidity the heat index around 100 Sunday, and 101-104 Monday. Lows each night will be well above normal as well.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Heat and humidity will be the main concern through much of the upcoming week. The center of the H5 high will build overhead Tuesday and Wednesday before drifting toward the western Carolinas during Thursday and Friday. Heat Advisory conditions of 105-109 appear likely each afternoon/early evening from Tuesday through Friday. Given H5 high overhead the column will be too dry to support any convection during the long term period. Low temperatures each night will be above normal as well.

AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
High confidence in mainly VFR conditions through 12Z Sunday outside of fog/low clouds through around daybreak today, isolated/widely scattered showers/storms this aftn/eve (mainly at KILM/KCRE/KMYR), and more fog/low clouds late tonight (mainly after 06Z). LIFR conditions will be possible at times.

Extended Outlook...VFR.

MARINE
Through tonight...High confidence. Offshore high pressure will prevail as a stationary front dissipates near the coast. No significant pressure gradient is expected so winds will mainly be light to moderate, driven mostly by the sea breeze. Seas will stay mostly 2 ft or less.

Sunday through Wednesday...The old front will continue to dissipate near the northern waters, and with weak high pressure offshore will result in light/variable winds Sunday morning. The flow will turn onshore and increase a notch Sunday afternoon as the sea breeze develops and pushes inland. The weak high will drift westward allowing for light offshore flow Monday morning, but winds will shift onshore in the afternoon thanks to the sea breeze circulation. Wednesday will be a repeat. Seas are expected to be around 2 ft through most of the short/long term period.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Water levels will trend upwards as we approach the new moon on Wednesday. Coastal flooding will be possible during evening high tides along the lower Cape Fear River in the vicinity of downtown Wilmington through next week.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.