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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 558 Pm Est Tue Nov 28 2023
Tonight..N winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft, then 2 ft after midnight.
Fri..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..SW winds 10 kt, becoming 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers through the day, then showers likely through the night.
Sun..W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.

AMZ200 558 Pm Est Tue Nov 28 2023
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Westerly winds turn northerly tonight as chilly air spills into the region. High pressure moves across the area through Wednesday, after which return flow develops. A front will drop into the area on Friday, bringing unsettled weather through the weekend.

FXUS62 KILM 282317 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 617 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

SYNOPSIS
Temperatures fall below freezing tonight under Cold Canadian high pressure. The high will push offshore later in the week with a return to milder temperatures. Rain chances will increase as upper level disturbances pass over the area through the weekend.

UPDATE
Only minor tweaks needed to previous forecast with early evening update. Here are the latest probabilities for observing record lows tonight using the National Blend of Models (NBM): 71% at Wilmington, 45% at Florence, 35% at North Myrtle Beach, and 8% at Lumberton. See climate section below for current records.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Sunny, dry, and breezy conditions will give way to a remarkably chilly night as a well-timed dry cold front brings very dry air early in the night while decreasing northerly winds permit efficient radiational cooling through the night. Record cold lows (see the Climate section below) will be threatened under this setup with low- mid 20s expected away from the coastline, and upper 20s expected along the coast. A Freeze Warning is in effect to account for those areas which have not yet experienced a widespread freeze, which includes all coastal sections and all of New Hanover County.

On Wednesday, the cold and dry near-surface air will warm up quickly beneath fully sunny skies. However, strong subsidence and the shallow sun angle will keep temps from reaching even the coldest normal highs observed across the area in a given year, which are in the middle 50s during mid-January. Highs on Wednesday will reach the upper 40s to low 50s with light and variable winds as high pressure shifts overhead.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Surface high pressure will start to slip offshore into Thurs with the upper level trough lifting, bringing brief WAA aloft and zonal flow. Lows Wed night will warm slightly but still remain largely below freezing. Light winds as the high moves overhead should result in some radiational cooling as long as overhead cirrus remains thin, but due to uncertainty only lowered temps in colder spots by a couple degrees. Thurs will warm to near 60 as return flow around the retreating high takes hold and a coastal trough begins to develop later in the day. Increasing moisture from the SW will remain far offshore so the period remains dry. Lows will fall in the mid to upper 30s as cloud cover increases overnight.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A warming trend will kick off through the end of the week with unsettled weather due to several upper level disturbances passing over the area. To start, the coastal trough will quickly lift through Fri with a shortwave moving through and a possible jet passing overhead. Trended a bit higher on wind gusts Fri but will say soundings are showing us capped at the surface, ~20 kts just above this cap with some guidance showing higher speeds. Wondering if some of these stronger gusts could end up mixing down as shower chances increase, but not expecting any downpours through Fri as moisture is still recovering, so chances are low. Environment could become more convective headed into the weekend as we enter into the warm sector of a system to our west, moisture continuing to recover, some guidance showing PWATs reaching ~1.5". This system's cold front looks to approach through Saturday before stalling over the area into early next week, moving offshore by Tues as a large amplitude trough aloft pushes through and we start to dry out once more.
Temperatures will run 10-15 deg above normal before returning to near seasonable early next week behind the front.

AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR. Clear skies outside of a few passing afternoon cumulus Wednesday. High pressure will keep winds light throughout TAF period, out of the north overnight shifting to southwesterly by Wednesday afternoon as center of the high shifts offshore.

Extended Outlook...VFR continues until Friday, when showers could lead to brief/minor flight restrictions. Periods of low clouds and showers may bring additional restrictions through the weekend.

MARINE
Through Wednesday... Offshore flow will dominate through the period with breezy westerly winds this afternoon turning northerly this evening as a dry cold front shifts through. Winds will peak around 15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts through midnight before gradually subsiding. Northerly winds will continue subsiding and eventually turn westerly again as surface high pressure shifts to our southwest. Offshore flow will keep wave heights around 1-2 ft in the coastal waters, although a period of 3-ft waves is expected in the NC coastal zones, mainly near and north of Cape Fear. These are expected to mainly stem from northwesterly wind waves at 4 sec and exist around 10-20nmi offshore.

Wednesday Night through Sunday...High pressure in place will lead to variable winds near or below 10 kts through Thursday. The high will start to slip offshore with a coastal trough developing into early Friday, lifting through the day with increasing southerly flow 10-15 kts. The gradient weakens with a stalled front in the area through the weekend, southwesterly winds near 10 kts. Seas largely 2 ft increasing through Friday to 3-5 ft and remaining near 3-4 ft through the end of the period. Main swells will be a weak NE swell at 6-8 seconds and a southeasterly wind wave.

CLIMATE
Some record lows tonight/Wednesday morning could be in trouble.
Here are they are:

ILM: 24 set in 1996 FLO: 23 set in 2002 CRE: 26 set in 1955 LBT: 19 set in 1938

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Wednesday for SCZ054-056.
NC...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Wednesday for NCZ106>108-110.
MARINE...None.

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New Topsail Inlet
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Tue -- 02:10 AM EST     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:05 AM EST     3.74 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:21 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 03:10 PM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:00 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:56 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:23 PM EST     2.80 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina, Tide feet

Castle Hayne
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Tue -- 12:21 AM EST     1.72 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:09 AM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:22 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 12:46 PM EST     2.04 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:02 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:57 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:01 PM EST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Castle Hayne, Northeast River, North Carolina, Tide feet

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