Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Guntersville, AL

SHORT TERM
(Tuesday through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1030 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

The upper low will pivot into TN and KY on Tuesday, placing the TN valley in west-northwest flow at 5h. Another spoke of vorticity will drop around the low during the afternoon from our northwest.
This along with low to mid level convergence along the 8h trough and a pseudo warm front at the surface should provide sources of lift for more showers and thunderstorms. Bulk shear will be lower (15-25kt), but SBCAPE depending on sunshine will reach 1000-1500 j/kg once again. Thus, a few stronger thunderstorms with small hail and gusty winds can be expected. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to dissipate or diminish quickly after sunset and loss of daytime heating. PoPs will thus drop to 20% or less during the evening and overnight hours. Low clouds will likely develop overnight, although any clearing could result in some fog development as well, but this is less certain.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 920 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

The persistent upper low will finally shift to our northeast and upper ridging will become the more dominant influence on our weather locally. H85 temps will begin to increase Wednesday night and we will see a transition to a warmer but briefly dry airmass.
Thursday will feature dry conditions with highs in the upper 80s to perhaps lower 90s in some locations. From here our attention turns to the late week and weekend time period, where a series of upper waves will be responsible for multiple days of severe weather across portions of the MidWest and potentially into the Southeast. High pressure over the western Atlantic will keep warm tropical air flowing north into these regions as the aforementioned upper waves push a cold front southeast, nearing the Tennessee Valley over the weekend. There is low confidence regarding the evolution of these systems and where the front will line up each day. We have high confidence that we will be in a warm and unstable airmass for several days in the late week period, but the amount of forcing for strong to severe storms remains in question. Regardless, we will have to monitor this period for severe storms as well as dangerous heat as heat indices could reach the mid 90s Thursday and Friday. Keep an eye on forecast updates throughout the week.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Low-end VFR to MVFR ceilings will persist through the day, with another round of SHRA/TSRA looking more likely during the mid afternoon to early evening window. Have added a TEMPO between 20-00z at both terminals to address this. AWWs and amendments may be needed during this late day window. Convection will wane after sunset, with ceilings climbing back to VFR levels temporarily.
However, after Midnight, low stratus will once again build back in, with MVFR conditions lingering into early Tuesday morning.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
TN...None.