Marine Weather and Tides
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.
|Sunrise 5:44AM||Sunset 7:38PM||Tuesday May 11, 2021 5:40 AM CDT (10:40 UTC)||Moonrise 5:48AM||Moonset 7:42PM||Illumination 0%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Guntersville, ALHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Huntsville, AL  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS64 KHUN 110753 AFDHUN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 253 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021
NEAR TERM. (Today) Issued at 253 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021
We've had a few spots briefly clear out as low clouds were breaking up after midnight. This has allowed for a few patches of fog or low clouds to develop, mainly north of the Tennessee River. With high clouds now moving over the area, don't expect this fog to last very long. High clouds will also help keep temperatures up in the low 50s this morning for our morning lows.
Main features of note this morning are the stationary boundary to our south and a couple of shortwaves, one that are generating the storms currently in east Texas, northern Louisiana, and northern Mississippi. The batch of storms in northern Mississippi suggest there is sufficient elevated instability for possible embedded thunderstorms with the showers later this morning as the shortwave continues eastward into Alabama. Any storms that develop will be weak. We should get a decent break from the rain through midday today. The second shortwave that moves through will start initially with the primary focus of thunderstorm development to our south this afternoon along and south of the stationary boundary.
SHORT TERM. (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 253 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021
Tonight, a more vigorous shortwave will arrive, associated with a much more broad mass of showers and thunderstorms moving out of Texas and Arkansas toward the Tennessee Valley. Hi-Res CAMs suggest the stronger convection will follow along and south of the stationary boundary, still located well south of our area, mainly impacting areas south of Birmingham. We could however see some elevated instability north of the frontal boundary again generate some embedded thunderstorms in the shower activity north of the front. Any thunderstorms with this activity will mainly just produce heavier rain and lightning.
Showers will linger into Wednesday morning, but we should mostly dry out by mid-day. Wednesday will be a breezy day as strong high pressure from the arctic air mass to our north helps to generate a strong north-south pressure gradient across the Tennessee Valley. This cool north wind as well as cloud cover will help keep high temperatures from getting up above the low-to-mid 60s Wednesday afternoon. Thursday will be another cool day, but good news is the upper-level trough over the eastern CONUS finally starts to shift off to the east, pushing the stationary front away from the area, and weakening the pressure gradient across the Tennessee Valley. With weaker northerly winds and perhaps some more sunshine breaking out in the afternoon, Thursday should be a few degrees warmer with highs in the mid-to-upper 60s.
LONG TERM. (Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 253 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021
Cool surface high pressure for the start of the extended should be situated across the southern Great Lakes. This high (originating from the Arctic) will continue an abnormally cool spell across the Tennessee Valley to close out the work week. After another chilly night with lows in the mid/upper 40s, high temperatures on Friday should warm a tad from the previous day, into the lower 70s. These are almost 10 cooler than seasonable norms (high/low temps on May 14th are around 82/60 for reference). The ridge should slowly build eastward, with strong mid May solar radiation helping to modify this airmass. But with generally clear skies and strong radiative cooling, lows Fri night should again chill into the upper 40s. As the ridge shifts off of the New England coast, warmer conditions should be realized with highs to close out the week Saturday into the mid 70s. The warming trend continues Sat night with lows in the mid 50s, and highs to start a new week finally recovering back into the upper 70s to lower 80s on Sunday.
The extended models continue to indicate differences in handling an upper level jet and associated disturbance now moving to the east of Japan. This feature by the weekend should be forming into a trough south of the Gulf of Alaska. The 00Z GFS creates a rather sharp trough off of the west coast, with it more joining with a cutoff low NE of Hawaii, while the ECMWF and Canadian were more suppressed, keeping the stronger trough to the north. Further to the east, the GFS developed another trough over southern Canada. This (if were to occur) would drive another cold front across the area in the Mon/Tue timeframe (and make for another cool period next week). The ECMWF/ Canadian kept eastern continent troughing weaker, thus maintaining a southerly flow. Am staying with a warmer solution, which the blends more agree on.
A southerly flow will advect more Gulf moisture towards the region. This moisture and seasonably warm temperatures and resultant higher instability, will bring isolated chances of showers and thunderstorms beginning Monday.
AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1109 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021
No changes to previous aviation forecast reasoning, as latest sfc obs suggest that the postfrontal stratus deck continues to erode early this morning. As this occurs, brief development of patchy BR/FG could occur and persist thru sunrise given subsiding NE flow at the sfc, but with bkn-ovc layers of As/Cs clouds anticipated over the region we will not formally introduce vsby reductions in the TAFs attm. A weak upper-lvl disturbance embedded in zonal flow aloft will shift rapidly eastward across the region late Tuesday morning, perhaps bringing a period of lgt RA to MSL/12-16Z and HSV/14-18Z. This should occur with little impact to airport operations, as both vsby and cig will remain VFR. A more widespread area of moderate RA and perhaps a few embedded TSRA will begin to impact the terminals around 12/0Z, along with MVFR cig/vsby reductions.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . NONE. TN . NONE.
NEAR TERM . McCoy SHORT TERM . McCoy LONG TERM . RSB AVIATION . 70/DD
For more information please visit our website at weather.gov/huntsville.
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|Albertville, Albertville Municipal Airport, AL||10 mi||66 min||NE 5||10.00 mi||Overcast||55°F||54°F||94%||1018.6 hPa|
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