Sunrise 6:01 AM   Sunset 7:24 PM Moonrise 7:24 PM   Moonset 5:45 AM

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FXUS64 KHUN 232332 AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 632 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

New AVIATION

NEAR TERM
(Remainder of today and tonight)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

There have been no changes to forecast reasoning for the rest of the afternoon period, as the combination of mostly sunny skies and strong warm advection in the boundary layer (induced by a 20-30 knot SW low-level jet) will allow temps to reach the l-m 70s for most of the valley later this afternoon.

This evening, we will be monitoring the progress of a band of rain and embedded thunderstorms to our northwest, with the leading edge of this activity expected to extend from the Ozarks into the Upper OH Valley at 0Z. A consensus solution from the 12Z CAMs suggests that this band of precipitation will diminish in both coverage and intensity with time (particularly between 6-12Z) as it drops southeastward in conjunction with a cold front while the weakening mid-level trough progresses eastward. Regardless, a low POP for light showers is warranted for locations north of the TN River between 9-12Z, with an increase in mid-level clouds expected elsewhere. Lows will be milder (u40s/SE to m50s/NW) due to a light SW wind, gradual increase in dewpoints and increase in cloud cover around Midnight.

SHORT TERM
(Wednesday through Friday night)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

The cold front (which should extend from central AR through northwestern TN/southwestern KY and into southern OH at 12Z) will advance southeastward over the course of the morning tomorrow, warranting a low probability for light showers through mid-day.
Although there is still some uncertainty regarding how far south the boundary will make it before stalling (especially given the weak nature of the front), there is some agreement among the various high-resolution and global models the it will shift southward and out of the region during the afternoon hours.
Postfrontal clouds will likely scatter during the afternoon, with highs once again reaching the l-m 70s.

Well to the west of our region, thunderstorms are expected to develop across western OK early Wednesday morning as surface pressure falls occurring across eastern portions of NM/CO force the southwestern portion of the boundary to retreat northward as a warm front. With this activity occurring beneath a broad axis of 30-40 knot NW flow aloft, there may be a tendency for upscale growth into storm clusters that would subsequently spread southeastward in the vicinity of the stalled frontal boundary Wednesday night. However, with the front now expected to at least temporarily clear our region, we will maintain a dry forecast Wednesday night and increase POPs from SW-to-NE on Thursday as the boundary begins to lift northeastward into our CWFA. Dewpoints in the u50s-l60s across the moistening warm sector will promote afternoon CAPE values in the 500-1000 J/kg range and this coupled with 30-40 knot NW flow aloft may yield a few stronger storms (especially across the western half of the CWFA).

The warm front is predicted to advance steadily northeastward through the local area on Thursday night as a deepening lee cyclone lifts northeastward over the central High Plains, and the precipitation regime discussed previously will expand across most of the region before ending across the northeastern portion of the CWFA late Friday morning. In the wake of the warm front, gradient-induced SSE flow will strengthen to around 15 MPH (with gusts around 25 MPH) on Friday and Friday night. However, a developing subsidence inversion aloft related to an amplified mid- level ridge will keep conditions dry in spite of a increasingly warm/moist airmass featuring highs in the u70s-l80s and lows in the l-m 60s.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

A broad based trough will extend across the Central plains to the Illinois/Ohio Valley are in the beginning of the period, bringing the more-favorable upper level support for precipitation just north and west of the entire TN Valley. For areas east and south of this troughing, expect conditions to stay warm and dry as high pressure will dominate the entire east coast of the US extending into the Central Gulf Coast states. Conditions will also stay warm/dry until the Sun-Mon timeframe as the trough begins to translate further eastward. Dewpoints will remain in the U50s to L60s until the frontal passage early next week (late Monday night), but the best dynamics and synoptic support are expected to remain north and west of the TN Valley until Monday. Some higher wind gusts seem plausible as shortwaves translate across the upper midwest, strengthening the pressure gradient and allowing a stronger mass response for areas southwards.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

VFR weather should continue over the area for the TAF. A cold front extending from the Great Lakes to West Texas will continue moving to the SE, reaching this region a few hours after daybreak Wed. Showers accompanying this boundary should fade as the front nears the Tennessee Valley. Thus have stayed with a dry forecast in the TAF. CIGs should lower into the 4-5kft range AGL as the front nears. Chances for CIGs to MVFR (<3kft AGL) and/or a light shower cannot be ruled out, but odds for this are too low for inclusion in the TAF. SW winds tonight into early Wed should veer to a NW direction as the front passes. CIGs should gradually increase as we go into the afternoon hours Wed.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
TN...None.

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