Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fillmore, CA

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...03/232 AM.

Fairly uneventful summer weather will continue through the short term. High pressure will remain overhead with slightly above average hgts of 594 dam. The sfc gradients will also not change much over the next three days. There will be mdt to stg onshore flow to the east and weak to mdt onshore flow to the north.

Night through morning low clouds and fog will affect most of the cstl areas everyday. The 594 dam hgts will smoosh the marine layer enough to create pockets of dense fog, esp along the Central Coast.

Max temps will continue to be the main talking point. The csts and vlys will see a small cooling trend each day of 1 to 2 degrees.
Max temps will remain above normal, but not dangerously so. The lower elevations of the mtns and the far interior will not be affected by the marine layer or onshore flow and will continue to see max temps from 100 to 110 degrees. Heat advisories and extreme heat warnings are in effect for these areas through Wednesday.
PLease see the product LAXNPWLOX for details.

The strong onshore push in the afternoon will create gusty winds.
The gusts will not reach advisory levels but will come close in the Antelope Vly where gusts 35 to 40 mph are expected.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...03/232 AM.

The 500mb pattern does not change much Thursday and the day does look similar to Wednesday. The mdls show just a smidgen of cooling and depending on how the interior temps go Tue and Wed there might not be a need for heat products.

The upper high strengthens on Friday and hgts over Srn CA rise to 597 dam. At the same time moisture increases with PWs over KLAX increasing to 1.42" by Saturday afternoon. Some of the EC ensembles also show a decrease in the onshore flow. Right now mdl guidance does not show too much of an increase in temps, which may well be the result of moister air not warming as quickly. The more humid air will not allow for much overnight cooling. The combination of increased humidity and warmer than normal highs and lows will likely result in another round of heat advisories and warnings.

Mdls do show the upper high weakening on Sun/Mon along with an increase in onshore flow. This should bring two days of cooling.
Humidities, however, are forecast to remain elevated through at least next Tuesday.

AVIATION
03/1002Z.

At 0822Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1000 ft deep. The top of the inversion was near 3100 feet with a temp of 27 C.

High confidence in VFR conds for KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD and KWJF.

Moderate confidence with the remaining TAFs. VFR transition timing may be off by +/- 90 minutes. KSBA and south cigs may be off by +/- 300 ft. There is a 30 percent chc of VLIFR conds at KSMX and KSBP through 15Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chc that cigs will remain AOA 010. VFR conds could arrive as late as 1930Z. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...High confidence in CAVU TAF.

MARINE
03/259 AM.

For the inner waters north of Point Sal, there is a 40% chance of SCA winds during through late tonight, highest along the Central Coast. Otherwise conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels across all nearshore waters.

For the Outer Waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds and seas will continue through tonight before beginning to subside early this coming week. There is a 30% chance that SCA winds will resume near and south of Point Conception.

Seas of 6-9 feet will impact the outer waters through tonight, due to a combination of long-period southerly swell and shorter- period northwesterly swell/wind- waves. Seas will begin to subside as the winds weaken late tonight into early next week.

Dense fog will affect some of the coastal waters each night and morning through much of the week.

FIRE WEATHER
02/323 PM.

Today through Saturday, widespread elevated to brief critical conditions will be common across the interior valleys, mountains, and deserts due to hot, dry, and breezy onshore conditions with an increased risk for large plume dominated fire behavior and rapid fire growth due to deep mixing heights. For much of this week, deep mixing heights of 10,000 to 17,000 feet can be expected across the interior, with peak heights likely by mid to late week as the atmosphere becomes slightly more unstable. If any fire ignitions occur across the interior, these deeper mixing heights will allow for large vertical plume growth, especially in the mountains and foothills, where Live Fuel moisture levels are approaching critical levels.

Other factors that will add to the fire weather risk across the interior this week will be southwest to northwest winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts 20 to 35 mph, as well as widespread and long duration single digit humidities. As a result, expecting at least a few hours of wind/RH overlap to reach brief critical fire weather conditions across many interior areas each afternoon and early evening. There is a 20-30 percent chance of Red Flag durations being reached (6+ hours) across portions of the interior sometime between Tuesday and Saturday. The highest risk areas include San Luis Obispo county interior mountains/valleys, Cuyama Valley, Santa Barbara county interior mountains, Ventura county interior mountains, and I-5 corridor. Hot-Dry-Windy index ensemble solutions showing several model members exceeding 95th percentile for multiple days across interior San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara county interior mountains, Ventura county interior mountains, and I-5 corridor. In addition, there will be very poor to poor overnight humidity recoveries, especially in the mountains and foothills where some locations may continue to have humidities in the teens.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Extreme Heat Warning in effect from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT Tuesday for zones 38-377. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT Wednesday for zones 344-345-353-375-376-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Wednesday for zones 381>383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.