Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fillmore, CA

.SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)...14/1028 PM.

***UPDATE***

The most intense rain from the system have exited the area, with a handful of isolated showers lingering behind the system this afternoon into this evening. There has been a bit more shower activity over the waters south of Anacapa Island, pushing into the Santa Monica Mountains tonight. Therefore, precipitation chances have been extended past 11PM tonight for LA County, which has another brief shot at some short-lived showers. No significant impacts are expected with these lingering showers, but if stronger showers linger over vulnerable areas for an extended period of time, they may cause localized flooding issues. Chances for showers will end in the early morning hours, with dry weather expected for the rest of Thursday.

***From Previous Discussion***

A strong system for any time of year, let alone October, has finally exited the area. Still could see a 5-10 minute moderate shower just about anywhere through this afternoon but for the most part the big impacts have ended. The big rain winners were in the San Gabriel Mountains where there were several reports of rain amounts over 5". Otherwise most areas ended up with between 1 and 1.5 inches.

Going forward, really not expecting any impactful weather for several days. A light Santa Ana event will follow this storm, peaking Thu/Fri. Winds are not expected to be too strong, but could get some gusts into the 30s in the San Gabriels and some of the higher valleys of LA/Ventura Counties. The more notable change will be the temperatures which will warm up well into the 80s across the valleys and mid 70s to low 80s at the coast. May get some patches of fog tonight, especially in some of the valleys with left over moisture from the rain and rapid cooling under clearing skies. Otherwise, not expecting any marine layer formation the rest of the week so there will be plenty of sunshine.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...14/141 PM.

A switch to onshore flow on Sunday will likely bring a return to the coastal morning marine layer cloud deck. The onshore flow will also bring 3 to 5 degrees of cooling up and down the csts/vlys.

Long wave troffing will move over the area on Monday bringing more marine layer clouds and stronger onshore flow. Max temps will fall 4 to 8 locally 10 degrees and end up 6 to 12 degrees blo normals.

AVIATION
15/0259Z.

At 00Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion.

Low confidence in cigs for KBUR, KVNY, and KSMX northward but moderate confidence in cig forecast at KPRB. RA possible through 08Z for taf sites of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties. Lower confidence on exact timing.

KLAX...Lingering RA possible, around 04Z to 08Z. RA may lead to briefly lower vis and MVFR to IFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected.

KBUR...There is a 30-40% chance for brief RA from 05Z to 08Z. 20% chance of LIFR FG 10-16Z.

MARINE
14/836 PM.

Showers may continue into the evening, but impacts are likely to be minimal. Choppy seas may continue into tonight, but conditions will be generally be around or just below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through Wednesday morning. Then SCA northwest winds are likely for the waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island and the western Santa Barbara Channel Wednesday afternoon through Thursday Night.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.