Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fillmore, CA

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...14/911 AM.

***UPDATE***

A mostly quiet weather day today as the storm has shifted east and weak high pressure nudges into California. Temperatures will be warmer than yesterday but still a few degrees below normal. One area of mild concern today is the western portion of southern Santa Barbara County where increasing north winds are expected this afternoon which may require some low end wind advisories. Not quite as strong winds Wednesday evening but still possibly requiring wind advisories.

Still looking at a likely Santa Ana wind event Friday, potentially moderate to locally strong as some of the ensemble gradients are approaching 8mb and the NAM came in this morning with 50kt of upper air support.

***From Previous Discussion***

A weak ridge will be over the area on Wednesday. Hgts will rise to about 573 dam. At the sfc there will be weak onshore flow to the east and weak offshore flow from the north. There will likely be some morning low clouds with the best chance across the Central Coast. Skies will be partly cloudy in the afternoon as some mid level clouds work their way through the ridge. Max temps will not change much Tuesday's values.

The northerly offshore flow will continue Wednesday night. The winds across the SBA south coast will be a little weaker and may not reach advisory levels, but there will be an uptick in the winds through the i-5 corridor. A weak eddy is forecast to bring Low clouds and fog the LA and VTA cst as well as the San Gabriel Vly - this is a pretty low confidence fcst given the northerly offshore push and would not be surprised if the low clouds stay more to the south.

An inside slider will start its journey down the CA/NV line on Thursday. Hgts will lower to around 568 dam. Sfc grads will not change much with offshore flow from the north and onshore flow to the east. The northerly offshore flow will bring a few degrees of warming to the csts and vlys, but will cool the far interior by dragging in cooler air from the San Joaquin Vly. Most max temps will end up a degree or two blo normal.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...14/234 AM.

As is typical with the passage of an inside slider, a Santa Ana wind event will set up. About 4 mb of offshore flow will develop from both the N and E. There is not much upper level support to help the gradients out, but even so there will likely be low end advisory level gusts in the windier locations.

Downsloping winds will bring 3 to 5 degrees of warming to most of the csts and vlys. The absence of cool air advection will allow the interior to warm 2 to 4 degrees.

Due west flow moves in at the upper levels on Saturday. There will still be 2 to 3 degrees of offshore flow in the morning, but with no upper support it will only generate sub advisory canyon winds.
Max temps will continue to warm with the offshore flow and 3 to 5 degrees of additional warm seems likely. This will bring max temps up into the upper 70s to mid 80s for most of csts/vlys which is 4 to 8 degrees above normal.

The pattern will shift on Sunday as a large upper low moves closer to the Pacific NW. Srn CA will not feel the effects of the low, but the switch to onshore flow will bring a chc of coastal low clouds along with 2 to 4 degrees of cooling across most of the csts and vlys.

Mdls and ensembles continue to struggle with the strength and location of the upper low on Monday. The AI-mdls favor the GFS solution of a slower and colder track. Right now the algorithmically adjusted blended ensemble forecast brings only a slight chc of rain to the north of Point Conception. The AI- solutions along with the GFS would favor a better chc of rain across most of the area. Still its 7 days away and there will be plenty of time to seek mdl convergence. No matter what happens with the rain it will be a much cooler day by as much as 8 degrees.

AVIATION
14/1445Z.

At 1500Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion.

For the 18Z TAF package, moderate to high confidence in current forecasts. Through this evening, high confidence in CAVU conditions for all sites. Late tonight, there is a 50% chance of LIFR/VLIFR conditions at KSMX, KSMO, KLAX and KLGB. Timing of this potential return is low.

KLAX...Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Through this evening, high confidence in CAVU conditions. For late tonight, there is a 50% chance that CIG/VSBY restrictions do not develop.
No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in 18Z TAF as CAVU conditions are expected through the period.

MARINE
14/745 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Friday, high confidence in a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. On Thursday and Thursday night, there is a 30-40% chance of GALE force winds.
For Saturday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds. For Saturday, there is a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For today through Thursday, high confidence in SCA level winds during the afternoon and evening hours. On Friday and Saturday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For today through Wednesday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel with high confidence in conditions remaining below SCA elsewhere. For Thursday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds across all western sections. For Friday and Saturday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).