Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Carpinteria, CA

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...12/306 AM.

Low clouds are trying to get started and currently are only across southern LA county. There is an eddy, increasing cyclonic flow and increasing onshore so there will likely be an explosion of low clouds towards dawn that will cover most of the csts/vlys of LA/VTA counties. Low clouds will also likely cover western SBA county. There is about a 30 percent chc that there will not be quite as much low cloud coverage as the current forecast. Assuming the low clouds do form they will be slow to clear across the vlys with no clearing likely for the much of the csts as the onshore push to the east is forecast to reach an impressive 9 mb this afternoon. In addition to the low clouds a grip of low clouds will also move over the area so expect a mostly cloudy day. Lowering hgts, low clouds and strong onshore flow will all combine to lower max temps today by 5 to 10 locally 12 degrees across the csts and 10 to 20 degrees over the rest of the area. Today's highs will mostly end up in the 60s across the csts and lower to mid 70s in the vlys or 3 to 6 degrees blo normal. The strong onshore push will generate gusty winds in the 25 to 40 mph range across many coastal and interior areas this afternoon and evening. The Antelope Vly and western foothills will likely see gusts of 40 to 50 mph and a wind advisory will be posted with the evening update.

A fairly sharp but also quite dry trof will move over the area on Tuesday. The biggest precipitation threat from the trof will be drizzle as it interacts with a deep marine layer but there will be a slight chc of shower over the higher peaks of the LA/VTA mtns.
The marine layer will be lifted to over 4000 ft and stratus will likely cover all of the csts/vly and will xtnd deep into the mtns passes. Clear will be slow with many coastal areas remain cloudy through the day. 2 to 4 degrees of additional cooling (4 to 8 locally 12 across the Antelope Vly and the VTA/LA mtns) will bring almost all max temps down into the 60s with just a smattering of readings in the lower 70s. Advisory level gusts are likely again across the western Antelope Vly.

Much less to talk about for Wednesday. Morning marine layer clouds will cover much of the csts/vlys, but offshore trends will allow for much faster and better clearing. More sunshine, rising hgts and weaker onshore flow will all mix together to bring 3 to 6 degrees of warming to most areas. Max temps, however, will still come in 2 to 5 degrees blo normal.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...12/314 AM.

Broad pos tilt troffing will be over the area Thursday and Friday.
There will be moderate onshore flow at the sfc. May Grey will continue with night though morning low clouds, but there should be good clearing for most of the area (a few west facing beaches may stay cloudy). The csts/vlys will not see too much temperature change and will remain 2 to 4 degree blo normal. There will be better warming across the mtns and far interior Thursday and little change on Fri.

An upper low is forecast to move into the far northern portion of the state Sat and then down into Srn CA on Sun. Look for strong onshore flow to develop with gusty winds across much of the area.
There may be enough cold advection and mixing to disrupt the marine layer on Sunday.

AVIATION
12/1207Z.

Around 12Z at KLAX, the marine layer was around 1400 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 3600 feet with a temperature of 20 C.

High confidence for TAFs at KPRB, KSBP, KSBA, KWJF and KPMD.

Low confidence in TAFs for KOXR and KCMA with a 40 percent chc of IFR cigs through 17Z Mon and after 06Z Tues.

Moderate confidence for the rest of the TAFs. Timing of flight cat changes could be off by +/- 90 minutes. There is a 30% chance of MVFR conds after 06Z Tues.

KLAX....Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR conds could arrive as early as 18Z. Any easterly wind component will be less than 7 knots.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Low clouds could clear as late as 1830Z. There is a 30% chance of BKN008 conds as early as 06Z Tue.

MARINE
12/503 AM.

For the outer waters, there is moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds will persist for much of the time thru Mid-week. However, winds across the waters north of Point Sal (zone PZZ670) will likely drop below advisory levels this morning before increasing once again this afternoon. There is a 10-20% chance of GALE force winds during the afternoon and evening hours today and Tuesday, with the highest chances around the Channel Islands. Short- period, choppy seas will continue across the outer waters into Wednesday.

For the inner waters N of Point Sal, there is moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. High confidence in SCA winds through at least Wednesday evening, especially during the afternoon/evening hours. Thereafter, there is only a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds during the afternoon/eve hours for the remainder of the work week.

For the inner waters S of Point Conception, there is moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. GALE force wind gusts are expected at times across portions of the Santa Barbara Channel this afternoon through late tonight, with a 40% chance of reoccuring Tuesday afternoon and evening. Thereafter, SCA level winds are expected for entire SBA channel through Tue, followed by a 60% chance for western portions Wed afternoon/eve. For remainder of work week, conds are generally expected to remain below SCA Criteria.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM PDT this morning for zones 349-351-352. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 381>383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 645-655-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).