Sunrise 6:20 AM   Sunset 7:35 PM Moonrise 3:56 PM   Moonset 4:27 AM

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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 836 Am Pdt Fri Apr 19 2024
Today - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy fog. Tonight - W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 7 seconds. Patchy fog in the evening. Sat - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 6 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.Sat night - W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 7 seconds. Sun - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 8 seconds.Sun night - Western portion, nw winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Eastern portion, W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft dominant period 9 seconds.Mon - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft. Tue - W winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft.

PZZ600 836 Am Pdt Fri Apr 19 2024
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park - .at 15z, or 8 am pdt, a 1020 mb high was centered 800 nm west of point conception while a central washington, while a 1008 mb low was over southern nevada.

FXUS66 KLOX 191621 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 921 AM PDT Fri Apr 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
19/914 AM.

Strong onshore flow in place will continue the cooling trend into today. Extensive low clouds and fog will struggle to clear as a deep marine layer depth remains in place into tonight. A warming trend is expected over the weekend as weak high pressure develops.
Significant cooling along with a deep marine layer are expected next week as low pressure moves into the area. In addition, there is a slight chance of showers or drizzle late next week.

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...19/923 AM.

***UPDATE***

The marine layer has deepened to 2500 feet across the LA Basin, sloping down to around 1700 feet along the Central Coast in response to a weak trough over the area. Low clouds have poured into the Santa Clarita Valley and up through some of the canyons leading into the south facing mountains. With onshore flow up to 5.4mb to the east, at the very least it's going to be a very slow burnoff today, and possibly not clearing at all in some areas.
Needless to say temperatures today will be much cooler, especially for inland areas that have been in the 70s and 80s recently.

Better clearing expected tomorrow as the trough is replaced by a weak ridge through the weekend.

***From Previous Discussion***

A deep marine layer will likely remain intact through tonight then slowly shrink into Saturday. A reverse clearing day looks to be setting up for Saturday with cold air advection developing across the northern areas. Clouds may not completely clear from the Southland, but the clouds will break up some and give a bit more sunshine. Some semblance of a marine layer depth or a remnant moist layer will likely linger into Saturday night and Sunday and keep some low clouds and fog in the forecast for the current time. EPS ensemble member cloud means agree with this idea in clearing out the northern areas for Saturday night and Sunday but keep some clouds lingering from Santa Barbara to the southeast into the South Coast Basin.

With less clouds and a retracting marine layer depth for Saturday and Sunday, a warming trend should take shape. Almost all members of the EPS, GEFS, and CMC ensembles agree with warming for the weekend. A significant warm up is taking shape for Sunday, especially across the valleys of the Southland and into the Antelope Valley. Of note, portions of the Antelope Valley could see its first 90 degree day of 2024. Typically, Palmdale and Lancaster see their first 90 degree days around April 30th. EPS members suggest high temperatures having a no chance of KPMD and KWJF hitting the first 90 degree mark, but NBM solutions indicate a 10 percent chance of a 90 degree on Sunday for Lancaster, and a 30 percent chance of highs hitting 90 degrees at Palmdale. The forecast maintains NBM values at 88 degrees for both for now, but it worth also noting that ECMWF tabular forecast guidance suggest 90 and 91 degrees for Lancaster and Palmdale respectively.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...19/418 AM.

The ridge axis will slowly drift over the area between Sunday and Monday while flattening. Southwest flow aloft redevelops on Monday and onshore flow should strengthen through Thursday. All ensemble members have a cooling trend establishing by Tuesday across the region, with significant cooling forecast for the Antelope Valley and interior portions of the area between Monday and Wednesday as an upper-level trough digs into the region.

Fairly high confidence exists in cooling for the period with a deepening marine layer depth. The main question seems to be if enough instability and moisture makes it into the region for precipitation to develop in the period. EPS precipitable water means approach 0.80 inch for KVBG and KLAX, which is more than ample to produce precipitation. EPS 500 mb height means do not dip quite as low as historical values for KLAX, but GEFS and CMC height means are closer to the climatological values of 564 decameters. For the current time, the forecast breaks away from NBM values after Wednesday night to emphasize a slight chance of showers by Thursday. Run-to-run ensembles continue to trend wetter with each model run, but EPS and CMC ensemble members seems to wetter relative the GEFS solutions. Heavy measurable drizzle or light rain cannot be ruled out. The most probable amounts would be a tenth of an inch or less.

AVIATION
19/1554Z.

At 15Z over LAX, the marine layer was 2500 feet deep with an inversion top at 5200 feet and 15 degrees Celsius.

Moderate to high confidence in generally persistence forecast (similar flight categories and timing for the next 24 hours as the previous). While ceilings will be most common over the next 24 hours, low confidence on timing and coverage of any clearing.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in OVC015-025 being most common through Saturday 18Z. Low confidence on when and if clearing will occur today, but the window for that is 20-02Z. 30 percent chance of no clearing in that window, 40 percent chance of 2-4 hours of clearing, and 30 percent chance of 5+ hours of clearing. Southeast winds of 4-6 knots is likely through 19Z today, and 10-18Z Saturday, but the chance of exceeding 8 knots is less than 20 percent.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in OVC012-020 being most common through Saturday 18Z. Moderate confidence on 3-6 hours of clearing today in the 19-06Z window, with a 20 percent chance of any clearing lasting less than 3 hours.

MARINE
19/855 AM.

High confidence in winds staying below 20 knots through Saturday morning, except for winds locally to around 20 knots this evening between Point Conception and Santa Rosa Island. Seas will remain small as well.

High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds and choppy seas forming quickly Saturday afternoon for the Central Coast offshore waters down to San Nicolas Island. These winds will persist through the weekend. There is a 40 percent chance of SCA winds for the nearshore Central Coast waters and a 20 percent chance for the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel. All areas will see building short period seas from these winds.

Winds will weaken Monday and Tuesday, but will stay near SCA south of Point Conception with choppy seas over most areas continuing.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

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