Sunday, January17, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Summerland, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 5:15PM Sunday January 17, 2021 4:49 AM PST (12:49 UTC) Moonrise 11:14AMMoonset 10:59PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 228 Am Pst Sun Jan 17 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until noon pst today...
.gale watch in effect from late Monday night through Wednesday morning...
Today..Eastern portion, ne winds 20 to 25 kt becoming N 15 to 20 kt by the afternoon. Western portion, sw winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 10 kt. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft dominant period 15 seconds.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 13 seconds.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 6 to 8 ft at 16 seconds.
Mon night..Eastern portion, N winds 10 to 15 kt becoming ne 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt after midnight. Western portion, W winds 5 to 10 kt becoming S after midnight. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft dominant period 18 seconds.
Tue..Eastern portion, ne winds 35 to 45 kt. Western portion, N winds 20 to 25 kt. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft dominant period 16 seconds.
Tue night..Eastern portion, ne winds 30 to 40 kt becoming 25 to 30 kt after midnight. Western portion, ne winds 15 to 20 kt. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft dominant period 15 seconds.
Wed..N winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 4 ft.
PZZ600 228 Am Pst Sun Jan 17 2021
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 10z, or 2 am pst, a 1028 mb high pressure center was over utah extending west to a 1031 mb high around 900 nm nw of point conception. A 1014 mb low was located just off the coast of baja. Large northwest swells will keep wave heights near or above 10 ft for the outer waters into Tuesday. Gale force northeast winds will likely affect the waters inside the southern california bight Monday night through Wednesday morning.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Summerland, CA
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location: 34.4, -119.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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FXUS66 KLOX 171122 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 322 AM PST Sun Jan 17 2021

SYNOPSIS. 17/321 AM.

There will be gusty northeast winds through this afternoon with continued above normal temperatures. A couple of upper lows will bring much cooler weather to the area starting on Monday. There is a slight chance of rain and snow showers across the mountains of eastern Los Angeles County Monday night through Tuesday night. Very strong and damaging northeast winds will be possible late Monday night into Wednesday, especially across Los Angeles and Ventura Counties.

SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE). 17/319 AM.

Skies were mostly clear this morning, with the exception of patchy stratus across the extreme immediate NW coast of SLO County and adjacent coastal waters. The low clouds should scour out in the next few hours with mostly sunny skies expected today with a few high clouds moving through the region.

Offshore surface gradients will continue to bring gusty Santa Ana winds across the usual wind prone areas of L.A. and Ventura Counties through this afternoon, then diminishing overnight. The strong upper level high that has been parked over the Eastern Pac and over California that brought us record breaking heat will start to breakdown today. This will allow for boundary layer temps to trend lower causing high temps to lower across most coast and coastal valleys 3 to 8 degrees today, with some marginal warming across interior SLO/SBA Counties as offshore winds will be much lighter N of Point Conception. Highs will still remain several degrees above normal with coast and coastal valleys reaching the mid 80s. Highs in the 70s can be expected for most interior locations.

As mentioned in earlier discussions, a challenging forecast is in the cards through next Wednesday. As the upper high starts to breakdown today, an upper disturbance will move down the eastern side of the ridge off the California coast. By early Monday morning, the upper disturbance will cutoff from the upper jet over the SoCal Bight by mid morning Monday. High temps will be much cooler due to falling H5 heights and boundary layer temps. Expect most areas to lower 6-12 degrees on Monday.

There have been some changes to the synoptic pattern that will delay the start of the strong and potentially damaging winds from late Monday afternoon to Monday night into Tuesday morning. Synoptically, the upper low just off the coast of Nrn Baja will be gobbled up by another vigorous upper low over Nevada Monday evening as it retrogrades over Southern California Tuesday morning and continues to dig south as it parks off the northern Baja coast Tuesday evening. The reason the winds will be delayed intensifying Monday afternoon and evening is the placement of the 1001 mb surface low which will now be over Point Conception Monday night thru early Tue morning. Therefore winds will not be as strong initially Monday evening. However, by late Tuesday morning, the surface low will re-position farther SW outside the SoCal Bight and strengthen to a 997 mb low. This will enhance the surface pressure gradients between LAX-DAG. Latest NAM-WRF projected gradients for LAX-DAG at 12z Tue went from -8.7MB to -5.8 mb. The 00z Wed gradient is up to -7.3MB. So it will still be very windy late Monday night through Tuesday, and with the surface low moving very little, very gusty Santa Ana winds will continue through at least Wed. The strongest winds are now expected to be between Tuesday morning and Tuesday evening. Strongest guts should reach 65 to 75 mph with some isolated gusts possibly higher in the mountains. High Wind Watches remain in effect for much of L.A. and Ventura Counties excluding the Antelope Valley as well as the Ventura and L.A. County Coast. If I did not see these gradient changes, I would have added both coastal areas to the watch as well. Make no mistake, this will still be a very strong and widespread wind event due to the colder nature of the low which will bring more subsidence over the region to drive the strong winds. There remains good upper support especially across the mountains, but more SE flow at 850 mb will remain over the coastal waters and valleys through Tue.

With the upper low moving over LA County, comes a slight chance of showers developing initially off the L.A. coast bringing some showers to Catalina and light showers or snow across the eastern San Gabriel Mtns. For now have left showers out of the forecast for the rest of L.A. County. But that could change with each successive model run. Snow levels will be around 5500 ft. Snow level could drop to 4000 ft if a heavier shower develops. Although relative humidities will rise a bit over the over the San Gabriels, it is still dry and wet bulb temps could allow for lower snow levels potentially. High temps will be near normal Tue or a few degrees cooler.

LONG TERM (WED-SAT). 16/207 PM.

The GFS and EC are in better agreement today overall compared to the last few days. The upper level low will persist around nrn Baja on Wed with some wrap-around moisture lingering at least into the morning hours over the eastern San Gabriels. The upper level low will eject eastward rather quickly on Thu with a weak pop-up ridge moving into srn CA. It looks like a large upper level trof will move into central and swrn CA by Fri then linger over the area for the most part into Sat, altho the GFS does move this feature mostly E of the region by Sat afternoon. There should be some pcpn moving into the area on Fri and Sat, but the EC and GFS do not match up very well with timing and location of any pcpn, and used NBM pops for the the extended period.

Except for some lingering snow showers possible in the L.A. County mtns early Wed, it should be dry over the forecast area Wed and Thu with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Partly to mostly cloudy skies can be expected Fri and Sat with a slight chance to chance of rain and mtn snow across much of the region. There should be leftover gusty NE winds at least to Advisory levels thru Tue evening across portions of VTU/L.A. Counties then winds will diminish. Temps are forecast to be a few degrees above normal Wed except near normal to a few degrees below normal in the mtns and deserts. Above normal temps are expected most areas on Thu, then cool significantly Fri and Sat, with highs well below normal for many areas by Sat.

AVIATION. 17/0618Z.

At 0412Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surface- based inversion with the around 1200 ft at 26 degrees C.

High confidence in all CAVU TAFs and moderate confidence in winds. Good confidence in northeast winds continuing across Ventura and Los Angeles Counties, but wind speeds may be off by up to 8 kt. There is a chance of moderate turbulence and LLWS especially around higher terrain.

KLAX . High confidence in CAVU TAF. Good confidence that an east wind component will be 5 kt or less.

KBUR . High confidence in CAVU TAF and moderate confidence in wind. There is a 20% chance of north to northeast winds up to 8 kt through 14Z.

MARINE. 17/208 AM.

High confidence that Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level hazardous seas over 10 feet will continue through Tuesday afternoon across the waters along the Central Coast southward to San Nicolas Island. There is also a 30-40% chance of SCA level northwest winds on Monday, and a 30% chance of Gale force north to northeast winds across the waters along the Central Coast to Point Conception on Monday night.

Moderate to high confidence in SCA level northeast winds across the waters from Point Mugu to Santa Monica and out to Anacapa Island through this morning (have extended the SCA through noon). On Monday evening, high confidence in gusty northeast winds and choppy short-period seas across all the inner waters inside the Southern California Bight and out to San Nicolas Island through Wednesday morning with the strongest winds expected late Monday night through Tuesday afternoon. A Gale Watch has been issued for this time period with winds likely peaking between 30 and 40 kt with local gusts to 50 kt. Choppy wind-generated waves of 5 to 8 feet are also expected. These conditions are expected to impact the eastern Channel Islands and Catalina Island. East facing Harbors, such as Avalon Harbor and other east facing harbor entrances across the Channel Islands will be affected with strong winds and steep seas. These conditions are hazardous to boaters, and there may be damage to boats that are not anchored properly. Mariners should avoid these areas, or remain in safe harbor until conditions improve.

BEACHES. 17/139 AM.

A long period west to northwest swell will move through the coastal waters through Tuesday, resulting in high surf and dangerous rip currents on all west and northwest facing beaches.

For the Central Coast, large breaking waves of 12 to 16 feet will continue through today, then a larger swell will bring a secondary peak on Monday. Breaking waves of 15 to 20 feet look likely on Monday and there is a 40% chance that a High Surf Warning may be needed as surf could potentially exceed 20 feet.

For the Los Angeles and Ventura County beaches and exposed west facing beaches across the Santa Barbara South Coast, large breaking waves of 5 to 8 feet are likely, with higher sets across Ventura County Beaches to 10 feet. Another larger swell will bring slightly larger surf on Monday.

FIRE WEATHER. 16/731 PM.

The Red Flag Warning will expire at 8 pm this evening as offshore winds gradually diminish later tonight into Sunday. However, elevated to brief critical fire weather conditions will continue across the region. During this time, north to northeast winds are expected to gust between 25 and 35 mph across Los Angeles and Ventura counties, with isolated gusts up to 45 mph in the foothills and mountains. After poor humidity recoveries in the foothills and mountains tonight, humidities are expected to lower to between 8 and 15 percent on Sunday.

A very strong and damaging north to northeast wind event is likely between late Monday and Wednesday morning. The strongest winds are expected to be late Monday night into Tuesday when widespread damaging wind gusts of 60 to 80 mph (and possibly higher) will be likely in the mountains, foothills, and some valley locations in Los Angeles and Ventura counties. Even coastal areas (including portions of the LA Basin) will likely see local damaging wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph. Due to the uncertainty with the track of the upper low and the possibility of some moisture entrainment on Tuesday, confidence remains low with the humidity forecast. However early in the event from Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning there's a chance that red flag conditions will return, especially across coastal and valley portions of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties where downslope drying will be maximized. Significant wind impacts are likely with this event, including a threat of widespread downed trees and powerlines, as well as power outages. Winds are then expected to diminish starting Thursday, with a chance of precip. Friday through Sunday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CA . High Surf Advisory in effect until 10 PM PST Tuesday for zones 34-35-39>41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until noon PST today for zones 40-41. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon for zones 44>46-53-54-88-547. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Wind Watch in effect from Monday evening through late Tuesday night for zones 44>46-53-54-88-547. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ . Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Tuesday for zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until noon PST today for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Watch in effect from late Monday night through Wednesday morning for zones 650-655-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (TUE-SAT).

Strong to potentially damaging Santa Ana winds are possible Monday night into early Wednesday. High surf will continue to affect west-facing beaches through Tuesday. Gale force winds are possible across the inner waters Monday night through Tuesday night.



PUBLIC . Kaplan/Sirard AVIATION . Stewart MARINE . Stewart BEACHES . Stewart FIRE . Gomberg/Smith SYNOPSIS . Kaplan

weather.gov/losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 5 mi73 min N 1.9 G 4.1 60°F 1015.5 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 17 mi39 min NNW 1.9 G 3.9 58°F 57°F1015.7 hPa57°F
46251 44 mi53 min 59°F7 ft
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 47 mi39 min WNW 7.8 G 9.7 1015.3 hPa

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA12 mi56 minN 010.00 miFair50°F40°F68%1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSBA

Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmE4CalmE3SE8SE6S3SE4CalmS4W4W5CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmN3NE4CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNE3N4CalmNW3CalmSE5W5SW63SW5W5SW6W4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3NW5E3E3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmNE3SE6CalmCalmW5SW6SW4W8W5W4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmE5CalmSW3

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, California (2)
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Santa Barbara
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:00 AM PST     3.99 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:04 AM PST     2.25 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:04 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:13 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:52 AM PST     4.70 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:14 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:54 PM PST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:59 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.843.83.42.92.42.22.42.83.44.14.64.74.43.82.91.910.40.20.51.11.92.8

Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, California (2)
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Rincon Island
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:55 AM PST     4.07 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:00 AM PST     2.41 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:03 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:12 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:47 AM PST     4.79 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:13 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:50 PM PST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:58 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.94.13.93.532.62.42.633.64.24.74.84.53.82.91.910.40.30.51.222.9

Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.