Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Santa Barbara, CA

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...22/135 PM.

A weak trough approaching the west coast has initiated a cooling trend that will continue at least through Saturday. The marine layer has already begun to lift and low clouds will fill in across the coastal valleys overnight. By Saturday highs will be back below normal area-wide with a marine layer depth expected to be near 2500 feet. The only coastal area potentially exempt from the marine layer return may be southwest Santa Barbara County where moderate northwest flow from the Central Coast and funneling through the Santa Ynez range will persist, strongest in the late afternoon and evening.

There is still some potential for minor warming Sunday as models continue to show a quick little pop up ridge over the area.
However, onshore gradients are expected to reach almost 10mb Sunday so any warmup will most likely be confined to the interior with increasing southwest winds, especially across the Antelope Valley.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...22/150 PM.

No real significant weather impacts next week. Temperatures are expected to flat-line most of the week with highs +/- 3 degrees of normal. The upper pattern is somewhat nebulous with a weak upper low expected to undercut a developing ridge across the Pac NW. Heights actually rise slightly through the period but onshore flow remains quite strong most of the week so the most likely outcome is a steady stream of night and morning low clouds and fog for coastal and at least some valleys. Both deterministic models linger the upper lows in the vicinity of southern California all the way through the following weekend which could keep temperatures on the mild side. However, there are a number of solutions that push the low either north or retrograde it out over the ocean with a much warmer air mass moving in from the east. So needless to say a very low confidence forecast in the longer range but with at least a possibility of a significant warming trend going into June.

AVIATION
22/1805Z.

At 1654Z, the marine layer was around 1100 feet deep at KLAX. The top of the inversion was 2100 feet with a temperature near 20 C.

High confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KPMD, and KWJF.

Low to moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. A shortwave is expected to enter the region lowering 500mb heights especially along the central coast. At the surface, Onshore gradients are expected to increase and there is a likely chance of the Catalina eddy to develop again overnight. The combination of these factors will translate to a deeper marine layer = higher cigs, especially along the Central Coast.

In general, timing of Cig/Vsby restrictions may be off +/- 2 hours with flight cats off by one or two.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Arrival and departure of cigs may be off an hour or two. There is a 30% chance of LIFR cigs (003-005) thru 12Z Fri. There is a 15% chance for an east wind component reaching 7-8 kts from 07Z to 14Z Fri.

KBUR...Low confidence in 18z TAF. There is a 40% chance cigs do not materialize (007-015) and or vsbys 2-5SM from 07-16Z.

MARINE
22/118 PM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas (at times) through Memorial Day weekend. GALE force wind gusts are expected to become widespread this afternoon through the late night hours. On Friday, GALES are expected to become more "localized" centered around Point Conception and the Northern Channel Islands (PZZ673/676). Also, there is a 30% chance of GALE force gusts across NE portions of PZZ670 Friday evening. Thereafter, minimal chances for GALES and seas are expected to remain below SCA thresholds.

For the northern Inner Waters, SCA winds with GALE force gusts are expected to develop this afternoon persisting into the overnight hours - Seas will be near SCA levels during this time. Thereafter, SCA winds will persist, with another chance (40%) for GALE force gusts Fri afternoon/eve. For Memorial Day weekend, SCA winds are likely especially during the afternoon/eve hours.

For the southern Inner Waters, SCA winds are expected to develop late this afternoon across western portions of the Santa Barbara Channel persisting through late tonight. On Friday, winds will be more widespread reaching eastern portions including the Ventura County coastline - 15% chc of GALE force wind gusts. There is a moderate chance for SCA level winds across the western portion of the channel each afternoon and evening over the remainder of Memorial Day Weekend.

For the Inner Waters off the Los Angeles and Orange County coasts, high confidence in conditions remaining below advisory levels today. There is a 20-40% chance for local gusts up to 25 kt to occur Friday through Monday in the afternoons near Malibu and in the far western portion of the zone - Highest chances are Friday.

BEACHES
22/118 PM.

A long period southwest swell will bring elevated surf conditions and high risk for hazardous rip currents through Memorial Day weekend. Considering the expected high beach attendance for the holiday, ocean rescues will likely be many. If you plan on swimming in the ocean this holiday, make sure to swim near a occupied lifeguard tower.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 645-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 5 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Friday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).