Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Santa Barbara, CA

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...11/225 PM.

Today is the last day of the weekend heatwave, as temperature are expected to come crashing down tomorrow. As a low pressure system moves in the Pacific Northwest, the associated trough will dig into the region early Monday through Tuesday. Heights for Los Angeles County will fall from 583 dam (today) to 570 dam by early Tuesday. Temperatures will be 8-15 degrees above normal today (except along the Central Coast), then Monday dropping to 3-7 degrees below normal. Temperatures will continue to fall, reaching 6-12 degrees below normal on Tuesday, when much of the region will struggle to reach 70 degrees. Temperatures will warm to the mid 60s to mid 70s on Wednesday, after the main axis of the trough clear out of the region.

The upcoming trough will be moisture starved, thus overall precipitation chances are low. At this point, most areas are likely to only see scattered drizzle from a very deep marine layer, with a slight chance of showers for the eastern San Gabriel foothills and the northern Ventura County mountains. Drizzle will be possible Monday night through Wednesay morning, with the best chances on Tuesday, when skies are likely to remain overcast through much of the day.

Tonight, a significant Sundowner Wind event is expected for the Santa Ynez range and adjacent western coast. A Wind Advisory will go into effect at 5 PM this evening, as gusts of 35-55 mph are expected to common. Wind will be strongest in the typically windy area across the western half of the Santa Ynez range, around Gaviota and Refugio. Conditions overnight will stay warm and dry for the eastern portion of the south coast, especially in the hills. Evening to overnight Sundowner winds are likely to continue through at least Tuesday night, however at this point tonight looks to be the strongest event.

Elsewhere, the trough of low pressure will yield gusty conditions on Monday afternoon across coastal areas south of Point Conception and interior mountains and deserts. Expect widespread west to southwest gusts in the 25-40 mph range, as a result of upper level wind support and surface pressure gradients.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...11/235 PM.

Thursday through the weekend, the region will continue to be under a broad trough pattern, that may sharpen Saturday night into Sunday, however the system will be dry with no significant precipitation chances. Temperatures will vary by a few degrees each day, with the coolest days on Friday and Saturday, and overnight to morning marine layer clouds are likely through the weekend. Onshore flow will trend upwards until Saturday, when winds are likely to be quite gusty for the coasts, inland mountains, and deserts.

AVIATION
11/1756Z.

At 17Z at KLAX, the marine layer was around 600 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 1900 feet with a temperature of 25 deg C.

Hi confidence overall for the 18Z TAFs at KPRB, KSBP, KSBA, KWJF and KPMD with VFR conds expected thru the fcst period. Gusty SW winds will affect the desert airfields this afternoon thru Mon morning.

Moderate confidence overall in the rest of the cst and vly 18Z TAFs due to uncertainties in the timing and extend of low clouds and IFR/MVFR conds later tonight and Mon morning, with the timing possibly off +/- an hour or two, including changes in flight cats.

KLAX....Moderate confidence overall in the 18Z TAF. There is a high probability of low clouds and MVFR conds affecting the airfield late tonight into Mon morning, possibly extending into early Mon afternoon. However, the timing of the onset of the low clouds and improvement to VFR may be off +/- an hour or two. Any easterly wind component will be less than 7 knots.

KBUR...Moderate confidence overall in the 18Z TAF. There is a high probability of low clouds and MVFR conds affecting the airfield about 14Z-17Z Mon morning. However, the timing of the onset of the low clouds and clearing to VFR may be off +/- an hour or two.

MARINE
11/153 PM.

For the outer waters, there is moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
winds through at least Tuesday night, except for a period of sub- SCA conds for the northern waters (PZZ670) Monday and Monday evening. There is also a 40%-50% chance of Gale Force gusts at times around and S of the Channel Islands through tonight. There is a 50%-60% chance the SCA winds will continue for all the outer waters Wednesday through Thursday. Conds should then be just below SCA levels Thursday night through Friday night.

For the inner waters N of Point Sal, there is moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. High confidence in SCA winds through at least Tuesday night, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. A 50%-60% chance of SCA level wind gusts can be expected Wednesday afternoon and evening. Conds are then expected to be below SCA levels late Wednesday night through Friday night.

For the inner waters S of Point Conception, there is moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. There is high confidence SCA level winds will spread into the western Santa Barbara Channel early this evening, and expand to much of the Santa Barbara Channel and inner waters S of Point Mugu tonight through Tuesday night. There is also a 40%-50% chance of Gale force gusts tonight for western portions of the Santa Barbara Channel. For Wednesday through Friday night, conds are expected to remain below SCA levels.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 10 AM PDT Monday for zones 349-351-352. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 7 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).