Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Isla Vista, CA

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...13/926 AM.

***UPDATE***

An approaching trough has weakened the marine inversion leading to a rather haphazard cloud distribution this morning. It will be another cool day today with temperatures anywhere from 5 to 15 degrees cooler than normal, with the biggest anomalies across the interior. Could still see some drizzle or light shower near the upslope areas of the south facing mountains this morning.
Increasing west to northwest winds are expected later this morning and afternoon, especially near the coast and in the Antelope Valley with gusts to 30-45 mph possible, strongest in the AV.

***From Previous Discussion***

A tight surface pressure gradient in place yesterday and last evening brought gusty winds to portions of the area as a weak and dying boundary dug into the region. Enough of a gradient exists today to bring gusty west to northwest winds across the Central Coast, the Ventura County beaches, and into the Antelope Valley.
Wind advisories have been posted for these through 9 pm this evening. A wind advisory was extended for the Santa Ynez Mountains and into southwestern Santa Barbara County into late tonight as winds continue. Some weakening of the winds will likely take place later this morning and early this afternoon, but the winds increase again and expand into the greater Santa Barbara area this afternoon and evening.

A warming trend should start to take shape on Wednesday and Thursday as 500 mb heights climb over the region. Broad troughing will remain in place across the region, keeping the air mass from significantly warming and daytime high temperatures below to near normal for Wednesday and Thursday. Weaker onshore flow and the increasing heights will lead to a warming trend over the next couple of days. This should permit the marine inversion to reform and keep night through morning low clouds and fog in place.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...13/451 AM.

Higher confidence exists in the pattern for Friday through the weekend as a cooling trend looks to take shape. Cluster analysis of the ensemble members suggest broad troughing remaining in place through the weekend, then the diverging solutions into early next week. Consequently, there is less spread across the ensemble members to highlight a cooling trend into Saturday or Sunday.
EPS cloud cover means increase between Friday and Saturday as more clouds should be expected as the marine layer deepens. EPS cloud cover means suggest clouds struggling to clear from the land mass each afternoon. GFS surface pressure gradients agree with this assessment with KLAX-KDAG surface pressure gradients tightening to around 9 mb, a value typical with such an occurrence. At this time, EPS ensemble members suggest marginally gusty winds developing for KOXR, KSBA, KPMD, and KWJF for the weekend, but EPS members are highlighting stronger winds for KSDB and through the Interstate 5 Corridor Sunday night.

By early next week, there is a lot of spread across the ensemble member temperatures. Cluster analysis reveals the uncertainty and near equal chances in the height and amount of ridging aloft over the region. While the slightly more favored solution keeps troughing in place, it should be noted the majority of the remaining solutions would lead to a warming trend. EPS members suggest high temperature means increasing across the region, but the question is how warm the air mass will get.

AVIATION
13/1858Z.

Around 18Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor inversion.

High confidence for KPMD, KWJF, KVNY, and KBUR.

Low to moderate confidence elsewhere with a 20-50 MVFR to IFR low cigs/vsbys mainly between 06-16Z.

KLAX....Low confidence in TAF. There is a 20-30% chance of BKN015 cigs after 08Z Wed. Good confidence in east wind component remaining under 7 kts with only a 10 percent chance of briefly reaching 7 kt sometime between 12-16Z.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20 percent chance of SW to W cross winds greater than 10 knots between 22Z and 02Z.

MARINE
13/1127 AM.

Steep seas with widespread winds of 25 to 35 knots will continue through today (up to 10+ feet for the outer waters and PZZ645, and approaching 7 to 9 feet for the inner waters south of Pt Conception), with generally hazardous conditions for most vessels during the afternoon and evening hours. While some areas will see some lulls, steep seas will affect much of the area.

The strongest winds appear focused on the waters from eastern Santa Cruz Island to Anacapa Island, but will also likely see strong winds extending to the Ventura County Coast and south to Point Dume with a 30 percent chance that this area will be upgraded to a Gale Warning.

Moderate confidence in forecast for the next 3 days...winds plus or minus 5 knots and seas plus or minus 3 feet, but remaining near SCA levels, especially across the outer waters.

High confidence in improving winds and seas (heights remain elevated but periods lengthen) Wednesday through Friday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 340-341-346-347-354-381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 349>352. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 645-655-670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 11 PM PDT this evening for zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).