Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North Topsail Beach, NC

UPDATE
No major changes were made to the public/marine forecasts with the latest update. Expect some evening showers/storms, mainly away from the coast, to slowly wind down overnight. The risk for severe storms is very low with the main hazard likely being flooding from heavy rainfall.

Aviation discussion updated for the 00Z TAFs.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A warm humid air mass will remain in place through the forecast period and could be acted upon by small scale boundaries like the sea breeze and outflow boundaries. Additionally, models indicate that weak shortwave troughs may affect the area this afternoon and evening and again Monday. All in all, expect mainly diurnally driven showers and storms of isolated to scattered coverage. Lows tonight will fall to the lower to middle 70s with highs Monday in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
The mid-level pattern continues to show anticyclonic flow around the high-pressure ridge, bringing in deep tropical moisture with precipitation of around 2 inches throughout the period. To the north, the shortwave trough over Kentucky on Monday will have weakened over the Ohio River Valley as the Bermuda High ridge holds over the area. At the surface, a stationary front over Northeast North Carolina will shift northward into the Mid- Atlantic by the end of Tuesday night.
Instabilities are expected to be around 1000-1500 J/kg along the coast and just offshore during the night. On Tuesday afternoon, the CAPE values will reach 2000-2500 J/Kg. Therefore, there is a good chance of showers and thunderstorms each night along the immediate coast, and during the day on Tuesday showers and thunderstorms are likely expected again.

Mid-70s temperatures are expected each night, with highs of around 90 on Monday. Heat indices are expected to range between 100 and 103 degrees.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
At 500 mb, the high-pressure ridge continues from Bermuda to the Florida Peninsula. On Wednesday, a trough over the upper plains will deepen and move to the east coast late Thursday into Friday. High pressure will be established at the surface but will give way to a frontal boundary crossing the area on Friday and moving south of the forecast area on Tuesday. Less coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected Wednesday into Sunday.

High pressure builds over the area, so temperatures will reach the mid-90s on Wednesday and Thursday. As the front passes across the region, the highs will dip into the lower 90s and rebound to the mid- 90s again by Sunday. With high temperatures in the lower to middle 90s Wednesday and Thursday afternoon and dew points in the 73 to 75- degree range, heat indices will range from 101 to 105.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
High confidence in mainly VFR conditions through the 00Z TAF period. Brief impacts from showers/storms possible, mainly through this eve and again Mon aft/eve. Low clouds to IFR levels are likely again late tonight inland at KFLO/KLBT based on persistence, maybe also at KILM.

Extended Outlook...Scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will bring brief MVFR/IFR visibility each day through Thursday. There is also a low potential for MVFR/IFR ceilings affecting inland airports early each morning, mainly 06z-12z.

MARINE
Through Monday...S to SW winds of 10 to 15 KT are expected through the period with seas of 2 to 4 FT.

Monday night through Saturday, the Bermuda high-pressure axis will remain south of the coastal waters. This pressure pattern will provide for southwest winds of 15 knots, with a slight increase to around 20 knots Friday as a cold front approaches the waters. Seas are expected to remain in the 3 to 4-foot range, with 4 to 5 feet possible late Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected over the waters daily, with more widespread coverage Monday night and Tuesday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.