Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North Topsail Beach, NC

UPDATE
Outside of sprinkles over the next hour or two moving across northern parts of CWA as 500mb SW approaches from the west, rain chances are done. Overcast skies will linger through most of tonight, with lows in the 20s.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Surface high pressure centered generally over the Great Lakes early this afternoon will push southeastward across the Mid Atlantic region late tonight into Tuesday, then off the coast by Tuesday evening. Moisture overrunning the 2000 ft cool surface airmass combined with lift ahead of a shortwave currently crossing the southern Appalachians, is producing patchy light rain and drizzle, which will exit to the northeast through late afternoon. Widespread low stratus is expected to develop this evening, which should scatter out mid to late morning Tuesday. 850 mb cold advection overnight will result in overnight lows dropping into the mid-upper 20s most areas. Given a chilly start and overcast skies through the morning, high temps will once again remain well below normal Tuesday...generally a 43-48 range.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
After a bit of a chilly start Tuesday night Wednesday will have a seasonable afternoon for the first time this month. This is due to the erosion of the wedge of high pressure that's been in place erodes rapidly and an approaching cold front induces southwesterly flow. The prefrontal flow regime will allow for the milder temperature but flow aloft will be WSW preventing much in the way of moisture advection. FROPA Wednesday evening will thus be rain- free and usher in a wind shift followed by moderately strong CAA.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
850mb temperatures back below zero on Thursday for highs that struggle into the low 50s. HIgh pressure may build in sufficiently Thursday night for radiational cooling that may require a reconsideration of lows towards some of the cooler values. A shortwave passing by to our north on Friday leads to some WAA locally ahead of it's weak surface reflection that is progged to cross VA at night, the system still moisture-deprived this far south. The mid level pattern will be of low amplitude late in the period with temperatures remaining cooler than normal but not to the extent of the past several days.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MVFR cigs are expected to prevail through at least 12z, with ceilings around 1200-1500 ft. Stratus may lower to IFR overnight through early Tuesday morning, with best chance along the coast and particularly at KILM. Elevated winds overnight will keep visibility restrictions minimal. With low pressure offshore moving further away, a wind shift above the surface will aid in clearing skies early Tuesday, though timing improvements to VFR is tricky. Current forecast has VFR conditions returning around 14-16z, but confidence is low. After the stratus breaks up, VFR conditions will prevail through end of TAF period. Winds out of the north through morning around 5-10 kts will become light (5 kts or less) by Tuesday afternoon.

VFR expected Tuesday afternoon through Saturday.

MARINE
Through Tuesday... With a surface trough well off the Cape Fear coast and moving ENE, northerly winds will continue through Tuesday.
The stronger winds are running a few hours later than expected, however Small Craft Advisory conditions are still anticipated.
Latest guidance indicates 25 kt gusts north of Little River Inlet by 21Z and south of Little River after 00Z. The gradient will relax a bit by late Tuesday morning as high pressure builds in from the west.

Tuesday night through Saturday... High pressure west of the waters weakens considerably Tuesday night into Wednesday turning light west winds to the southwest followed by a marked increase in speed. The approach of a cold front will be responsible for the increase in gradient and headlines will be needed Wednesday and Wednesday night.
The boundary pushes through Wednesday night bringing northwesterly abating winds while steepening wave faces. Weak high pressure moves offshore Friday while a warm front tries to organizes south of the area, keeping winds fairly light.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ250-252- 254-256.