Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North Topsail Beach, NC

UPDATE
No big changes made to the public/marine forecasts with the latest update. Main challenge the rest of the overnight continues to revolve around rain chances along an inland pre- frontal trough as many models have been overdone so far. Most of the convection remains just north of our forecast area but seeing some recent re-development of showers back to the SW across the NC Sandhills. There is still some instability/forcing in place so should see at least isolated showers/storms across SE NC & NE SC, although not expecting any severe storms due to minimal shear and diminishing instability. Any rain that does develop though should push offshore around daybreak or shortly thereafter as a weak cold front moves in from the NW.

New aviation discussion below for 06Z TAFs.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
Very strong instability has developed across the area this afternoon, with the SPC mesoanalysis page even showing a narrow zone of 4500 J/Kg of SBCAPE in the Cape Fear region. The sea breeze appears to be about 4200 ft deep, which is close to but just shy of our LFC. Not unlike yesterday then deep convection should have trouble developing this afternoon-though a few shallower showers are possible. This changes this evening into the early part of tonight.
Storms that are currently firing in the upstate region of the Carolinas will be translating east with the mean flow. As they do they will increasingly benefit from shortwave impulses also coming in from the west. CAMs have struggled today to see how this plays out here at the coast, but the trend has defiantly been towards more active. This seems logical given the extreme instability currently in place-shouldn't be in a hurry to diminish with daytime heating.
Rain chances increase (quickly?) west of I-95 perhaps as early as 00Z, with a quick translation to the coast within 2-3 hours. Severe weather in the form of damaging wind gusts appears possible if not likely. Weakening front drops into the area early tomorrow leading to less breezy of a day while a dip in the dewpoint brings a break in these near 100 heat indices especially inland.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A front will be off the coast Friday night with low shower/storm chances at the coast. The front looks to stall into Saturday where we maintain shower/storm chances starting at the coast and then expanding inland in the afternoon with the sea breeze. The stalled front may be dragged inland by high pressure to our west. Mostly dry conditions should then settle in for Saturday night. Highs in the lower to mid 90s and lows in the lower 70s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The main focus for the long term will be increasing temperatures and the possible need for prolonged Heat Advisories next week. A strong mid-level ridge will build overhead with a warming trend through early next week. Highs will firmly be in the 90s with hottest conditions looking like Tuesday right now, where we could see highs of 100F in some spots. Highs at the coast should remain near 90.
Highs should start to improve towards mid next week.

In terms of rain, some isolated activity along the sea breeze may remain possible into Sunday as PWATs recover due to low pressure passing by to the north. A wave of enhanced moisture looks to wrap around into the area as it moves down the coast from the north, with high pressure holding fast to our west. Mostly dry conditions then hold for the rest of the long term period with a bit more uncertainty towards mid next week. A low to the north may push another round of moisture into the area bringing rain chances back towards the end of the period.

AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
High confidence in mostly VFR conditions expected at all terminals through 06Z Saturday. A few showers/storms are possible at all terminals through around 12Z as a weak cold front approaches, then mainly closer to the coast at KMYR/KCRE/KILM this aftn/eve as additional showers/storms develop near/ahead of the front and along the sea breeze. Also could see brief cig/vsby restrictions due to low clouds/fog thru around daybreak and again late in the period but confidence is too low to mention.

Extended Outlook...Brief restrictions due to widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are possible, mainly through Sat, with building high pressure squelching convection early next week.

MARINE
Through Friday...Southwesterly gradient a bit pinched between Bermuda High and cold front approaching from the NW. Gusts have stayed sub-advisory and save for about a 2 hr window centered upon 03Z at which time a small 925mb jet crosses the area they should continue to do so. Veering slated for later tonight as weakening frontal boundary approaches, followed by decreasing wind speeds. Easterly swell is minimal, largely staying offshore, so the 4-5 second wind wave will continue to dominate.

Friday Night through Tuesday...Prolonged benign marine conditions with mostly dry conditions from the weekend onwards under high pressure. W to SW winds AOB 10 kts will become onshore in the afternoons with the sea breeze. Seas 2-3 ft.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.