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FXUS62 KFFC 302349 AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 649 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023


New 00Z Aviation Discussion

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 255 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

Changes in the weather are afoot for the CWA. The very dry and cool airmass began to modify today...and will continue to trend towards a warmer and wetter pattern.

High pressure center currently in place will move offshore today. A warm front will begin to push northward during the day tomorrow, with a wedge setting up across far NE GA. The models do try to erode the wedge tomorrow night, but think that is a bit aggressive and it should hang on. Isentropic lift over the warm front has begun this afternoon and the mid/high clouds will continue to increase through the evening hours. A shortwave trough at 500mb will bypass the CWA to the north and west overnight, but plenty of shortwave energy from the southern stream will move across the area. Isentropic lift aided by forcing aloft usually lends to some patchy light rain and have kept pretty high pops in during the overnight period. QPF should be light. In addition, soundings continue to show very dry air off the surface tonight. Any precip falling will have to overcome this dry air...and evaporative cooling could help precip start as some patchy sleet/ice pellets in the far northeast mountains early Friday morning. Little to no impact is anticipated.

Anywhere south of the warm front tomorrow could see thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. Thunder is less likely within the wedge, but an elevated thunderstorm is not out of the question.

Have strayed from the blend for temperatures. Don't think the NBM is handling the wedge very well.

NListemaa

LONG TERM
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 255 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

With a 500 mb trough progressing eastward, a surface low pressure system will occlude and track northeastward over the midwest. As the attendant cold front pushes its way across the southeast Saturday, widespread rainfall is expected across the region. Saturday, much of the forecast area outside of the wedge in northeast Georgia will be placed within the warm sector. Dewpoints in the 60s combined with a plume of instability (MUCAPE ~250-500 J/kg) and low level shear will allow for a few embedded thunderstorms to develop. SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) for severe weather for Saturday for central Georgia with areas north in a general thunderstorm risk.

QPF totals through Monday have trended downward as a result of the NBM relegating precipitation further south. This has ultimately produced a significant change with this forecast cycle in storm total precipitation for this event. Given the model guidance spread, have opted to blend in the the previous forecast and the GFS/EURO/NAM12 to produce the QPF for this weekend's event. Rainfall totals through Monday are now forecast between 2.0-2.5" for most areas south of I-20 with areas northward ranging from 1.25-1.75". A few locations in higher terrain across northeast Georgia could see locally higher amounts between 1.75 to 2.0". Will continue to monitor how the rainfall amounts evolve with future forecast updates. Despite the overall downtrend in QPF for the forecast area, long, skinny CAPE profiles combined with PWATs in the 1.25-1.75" range could still produce periods of heavy rain with locally higher totals that could result in localized flash flooding concerns. WPC maintains a Marginal Risk (1 out of 4) for central Georgia and most of north Georgia for flash flooding on Saturday. Furthermore, we could see a few of our flashier creeks and streams approach minor flood stage over the weekend and early into next week. As the cold front gradually progress southeast through the forecast area, several additional waves of precipitation with embedded thunderstorms are expected Sunday before the rain begins to taper off from the northwest Monday when the cold front finally clears the forecast area.

This period of wet weather will bring some beneficial rainfall to the area. Locations along and south of the I-20 corridor that are in abnormally dry (D0) or moderate drought (D1) could experience improvements from this event. Unfortunately, areas across north Georgia in severe (D2) and extreme (D3) drought will receive lower amounts compared to their southern counterpart. Per the Southeast River Forecast Center (SERFC), northwest Georgia needs 3 to 6 inches to bust the drought while areas across northeast Georgia need up to 3 inches. Northwest Georgia is forecast for around 1.25-1.75" with northeast Georgia seeing around 1.75-2.0". While this may not entirely eradicate drought conditions across the region, we'll take any improvement we can get to mitigate ongoing drought conditions and fire danger.

Temperatures will be quite warm over the weekend with highs in the 60s and low 70s and lows in the 50s and mid 60s. After the cold front clears the forecast area, high temperatures will trend cooler into the 50s and low 60s with lows in the 30s to low 40s, closer to climatological norms for this time of year. Drier weather is expected to return by midweek.

KAL

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

VFR conditions will prevail through 09Z Friday. After 09Z Friday MVFR and eventually a mix of IFR and LIFR conditions will move in from the west. Impacts from the IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibilities are possible at the Atlanta area TAF sites, KAHN and KCSG after 15Z Friday. Rain showers and drizzle will occur in the region between 10Z Friday and 06Z Saturday (mainly north and west of KMCN). Winds will continue from the southeast or east through 06Z Saturday.

//ATL Confidence
00Z Update
Confidence in the KATL TAF is moderate.
Moderate confidence in the precipitation and ceiling forecasts.
High confidence in the wind forecast.
Low confidence in the visibility forecast.

Albright

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 40 60 52 65 / 20 70 90 100 Atlanta 43 62 58 66 / 30 70 90 100 Blairsville 39 53 50 58 / 40 80 80 90 Cartersville 43 60 55 66 / 40 70 90 90 Columbus 45 70 63 71 / 30 70 90 100 Gainesville 41 50 47 59 / 40 80 90 90 Macon 43 70 61 70 / 10 50 80 100 Rome 42 62 55 66 / 50 80 80 90 Peachtree City 41 65 59 68 / 30 70 90 100 Vidalia 47 75 59 74 / 10 20 70 90

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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