Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Dawsonville, GA

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 203 PM EDT Sun May 11 2025

Key Messages:

- A Flood Watch is in effect for west central Georgia.

- Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches and isolated totals over 4 inches are expected by Monday evening.

- There are multiple opportunities for severe weather through Monday, including a small risk for nocturnal tornadoes tonight.

Weather Pattern through Monday:

The weather pattern over the state will continue to be dominated by a closed upper level low that will very slowly move from over Louisiana today to over Mississippi and Alabama on Monday. Strong southerly flow downstream of the low will continuously send a plume of Gulf moisture over Georgia. A series of weak shortwaves embedded in the moist flow wrapping around the low will be primary drivers of enhanced rainfall and thunderstorm activity. The first of these waves is currently over the GA/FL border, and will gradually move north across the state later on this afternoon through the evening. A second wave will push through late tonight into early Monday morning, with a third late Monday into Monday night. In between the waves it'll be generally dry with only light rain or showers around. Overall the setup will continue the dreary conditions across the area through early next week. High temperatures will again be much cooler than normal today due to easterly winds and mostly cloudy skies, keeping temps in the 60s.
Winds turn southeasterly on Monday bringing in some warmer air, with highs climbing into the low to mid 70s in northern GA, and upper 70s in central GA. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Expected Rainfall & Flooding Concerns:

Widespread rainfall totals between 1 and 3 inches are expected through Monday, with localized totals potentially exceeding 5 inches over central Georgia. This could produce some localized flooding, especially if any thunderstorms train over the same region. One area of potential concern is west central Georgia where 1-3 inches of rain yesterday saturated soils and created more vulnerability to flooding. A Flood Watch is in effect for this area through Monday morning. Elsewhere in the state, the risk for flash flooding is lower due to less soil saturation. As rainfall totals continue to climb, rising river and stream levels are likely. Some minor to moderate river flooding could begin as early as Monday.

Severe Weather Threat:

Several rounds of thunderstorm activity will move across the area later on today through Monday, and bring some severe weather potential. The initial area of concern will be in portions of central Georgia from Macon southward this afternoon and evening. A shortwave moving north will be a source of lift, which combined with diurnal heating should lead to 750-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE.
Unidirectional shear profiles, 700-500 mb lapse rate below 6 C/km and saturated soundings suggest that downburst winds driven by precipitation loading will be the main threat during this period, through a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

A second shortwave will move through late tonight into early Monday morning. CAM guidance is suggesting better lapse rates and some turning of the low level winds ahead of this feature. Combine this with some instability and plentiful moisture, and the potential exists for low topped supercells. If this setup develops then a couple of brief nocturnal tornado spin-ups can't be ruled out. The best tornado potential looks like it would be in west central Georgia between midnight and 6 AM, but most of northern and central Georgia are also at risk. Damaging winds gusts or marginally severe hail could also occur.

Another round of thunderstorm activity is possible during the afternoon and evening on Monday due to the combination of diurnal and a third shortwave projected to move across the area. While the environmental conditions may not be as favorable as today/tonight, the upper level low being in close proximity to the area will create conditions that would support isolated severe thunderstorms. Damaging wind gusts, hail, and a brief tornado would be possible.

Culver

LONG TERM
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 203 PM EDT Sun May 11 2025

Key Messages: - Cool and wet through mid week with river flooding possible.

- Temperatures start to climb Thursday onward with thunderstorm chances across north Georgia each afternoon starting Friday.

By Wednesday the cut-off low will be on its way out of the region bringing drier W/NW flow across the SERN US. While we could still see some lingering PoPs in E/NE GA through Wednesday afternoon, conditions clear and temperatures return to near normal. The more seasonable conditions will be short lived, however, as temperatures heat up Thursday onwards. Highs near 90 and lows around 70 can be expected through the end of week period.

At the same time, a breaking wave pattern over the great lakes region will help to initiate several shortwaves which jaunt across the state through the later half of the week. Combined with the NW mid level flow, warm destabilizing temperatures, and just enough moisture, afternoon/evening thunderstorms may be in the cards for North GA each afternoon. Given the flow pattern and dynamic support, the main concern with any storms will be the potential for any cold pool organization which may be able to ride any stability boundary in the form of an MCS. Gusty to damaging winds would be the main concern, however this is still too far out to say with much certainty.

SM

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 739 PM EDT Sun May 11 2025

BKN to OVC IFR cigs likely to continue thru much of the pd areawide, with potential for lifting to SCT low-MVFR aft 15-16Z.
LIFR cigs are possible off and on for northern TAF sites between now and 08-09Z. -SHRA expected to linger well into the afternoon Monday, with intermittent dry periods interspersed. -TSRA psbl between 09-12Z this morning, and then again between 19-00Z tomorrow afternoon. MVFR to low-VFR vsbys (in BR) to linger even outside of pcpn, and IFR vsbys psbl during heaviest pcpn. Winds to remain E to ESE at 7-12kts.

//ATL Confidence
00Z Update
Medium confidence all elements.

96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 56 64 62 76 / 30 70 90 90 Atlanta 58 65 63 78 / 30 100 80 80 Blairsville 52 68 58 71 / 10 50 90 80 Cartersville 55 70 62 79 / 70 50 80 80 Columbus 62 67 64 81 / 0 50 70 70 Gainesville 53 66 62 75 / 20 30 90 90 Macon 61 68 64 81 / 60 100 80 70 Rome 57 72 62 80 / 100 40 80 80 Peachtree City 58 64 63 79 / 100 100 70 80 Vidalia 66 68 66 81 / 100 100 90 80

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for GAZ078>080-089>093- 102>106-108.