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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 207 Pm Pdt Wed Oct 4 2023
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 11 seconds.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 11 seconds.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming N 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 11 seconds.
Fri..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 11 seconds.
Fri night..NW winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming ne. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 11 seconds.
Sat..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 12 seconds.
Sat night..NW winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Combined seas 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog.

PZZ600 207 Pm Pdt Wed Oct 4 2023
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park...at 20z, or 1 pm pdt, a 1031 mb surface high was centered about 550 nm W of portland, oregon, extending to 1022 mb surface ridge into western utah. A 1009 mb thermal low was located over southern arizona, and a trough of low pressure was along the california coast. A shallow marine layer depth in place will produce patchy to areas of dense fog over the northern and outer waters tonight into Thu morning. Locally gusty northeast winds with choppy seas are possible nearshore S of point mugu tonight and Thu morning.

FXUS66 KLOX 042110 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 210 PM PDT Wed Oct 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
04/222 AM.

A warming and drying trend will continue to take place through Thursday as offshore flow combines with high pressure aloft. A weak to moderate Santa Ana wind event will occur each morning today through Friday with temperatures well above normal. Some cooling is expected over the weekend.

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...04/151 PM.

Overall. 12Z models in good synoptic agreement through the short term period. At upper levels, ridge will peak in strength over the West Coast tonight/Thursday then will gradually weaken Friday and Saturday. Near the surface, weak offshore flow will persist, but will continue to weaken from day-to-day.

Forecast-wise, no significant issues are anticipated in the short term. Northeasterly winds have diminished this afternoon. so will let the current WIND ADVISORY expire. For tonight through Saturday, the offshore gradients continue to gradually weaken. So, with minimal upper level support, do not anticipate any advisory level Santa Ana winds tonight through Saturday. Looking at the gust probabilities from the NBM, the idea of sub-advisory winds looks very solid.

As for temperatures, will expect very warm conditions Thursday and Friday for the area, especially west of the mountains. This warming will be due to the continued offshore surface gradients and the upper level ridge. Most areas west of the mountains can expect high temperatures 12-18 degrees above normal Thursday and Friday. However, with dry conditions and the nighttime temperatures not being too oppressive, do not expect need for any non-routine heat products. For Saturday, there will be some slight cooling west of the mountains, but persistent (if not a degree or two warmer) temperatures across interior sections.

As for clouds, expect skies to remain mostly clear through Saturday. There is a chance for some stratus/dense fog along the immediate Central Coast during the overnight hours, but any inland penetration will be very limited.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...04/151 PM.

For the extended, 12Z models continue to exhibit decent synoptic agreement. At upper levels, ridge will gradually weaken through early next week. Near the surface, onshore flow will gradually increase.

Forecast-wise, nothing too exciting is anticipated in the extended forecast. There will be a gradual increase in night/morning stratus and fog as H5 heights lower and onshore gradients return.
Otherwise, skies will likely remain mostly clear through the period. As for temperatures, will expect a gradual cooling trend into early next week, finally dropping to near or below normal by Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION
04/1759Z.

AT 17z, there was a surface-based inversion. The top of the inversion was at 1700 feet with a temperature around 24 deg C.

High confidence in the 18Z TAFs with VFR conds thru the fcst period. There is a low-to-moderate chance of moderate wind shear and turbulence through about 23Z today for KCMA, KBUR and KVNY.

KLAX...High confidence in the 18Z TAF with VFR conds thru the fcst period. There is a 20% chance of east winds between 7 and 10 knots from about 08Z-20Z Thu.

KBUR...High confidence in the 18Z TAF with VFR conds thru the fcst period. There is a 30% chance of moderate wind shear and turbulence through about 23Z today.

MARINE
04/155 PM.

High confidence in the current forecast. Winds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels across all coastal waters through Monday. There is a 20%-30% chance of SCA level winds nearshore between Rincon Point and Pacific Palisades tonight into Thursday morning.

A shallow marine layer depth is expected to result in patchy to possibly areas of dense fog with visibility one nautical mile or less over the northern and outer coastal waters later tonight into Thursday morning.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

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Santa Barbara
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Wed -- 03:10 AM PDT     3.33 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:40 AM PDT     2.93 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:55 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:49 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:16 PM PDT     5.22 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:38 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:28 PM PDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:22 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Santa Barbara, California, Tide feet

Rincon Island
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Wed -- 02:41 AM PDT     3.35 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:28 AM PDT     2.98 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:54 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:47 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:09 PM PDT     5.30 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:37 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:17 PM PDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:21 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Rincon Island, California (2), Tide feet

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