Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mission Canyon, CA

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...23/935 AM.

***UPDATE***

The marine layer has deepened to 2500 feet this morning and covered all the LA/Ventura coast and coastal valleys. Clearing is well underway and all areas should have full sunshine before noon with the possible exception of some beaches. Along the Central Coast it's only 700 feet deep and what little stratus was there this morning has already dissipated.

Onshore flow is up almost 3mb from yesterday so the sea breeze will arrive quickly today and keep temperatures on the cooler side, in some cases as much as 10 degrees cooler than yesterday in the valleys. Models continue to show strong onshore flow and deepening marine layer through the weekend so temperatures will drop below normal levels and remain that way at least until next week.

***From Previous Discussion***

Overnight to morning low clouds and fog will trend upwards into the weekend. As 500 mb heights decrease inline with the approaching trough, the marine layer will deepen and extend further inland. The latest satellite and sounding data shows a marine layer depth of around 1700 feet, with clouds across Ventura and Los Angeles Counties spreading northward. Some amount of stratus and patchy fog is expected for all coasts and coastal valleys by this morning, except for portion of the Santa Barbara south coast, where winds may drive clouds away.

The northwesterly Sundowner Winds across the southwest portion of Santa Barbara County have now fallen below advisory level, although local gusts to 40 mph will continue around Gaviota. Winds are expected to redevelop this evening into tonight across the same location. A Wind Advisory has been issued, as gust of 30 to 50 mph are likely to be common.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...23/331 AM.

Calm weather is expected in the extended period, as weak trough will knock 500 mb heights down again early next week. Overall temperatures will either change very little each day or increase very slightly. Highs will mostly be within 3 degrees of normal, except for some areas of well below normal for the beaches along the Central Coast. Persistent and strong onshore flow will keep marine layer clouds and fog common during the overnight and morning time periods. Thus, a typical May Gray pattern is likely for the beaches, coastal plains, and some valleys.

There is the potential for a significant warming trend late next week into early June, as some forecast models show a moderately strong high pressure system building over the Arizona-Nevada region.

AVIATION
23/1810Z.

At 1646Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1800 feet deep. The top of the inversion was around 4000 feet with a temperature of 19 C.

High confidence in TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.

Moderate to low confidence in remaining TAFs. There is a 30% chance of MVFR cigs at KPRB from 10 to 16Z Sat. There is a 30-40% chance of IFR cigs at KSBP from 04Z to 15Z Sat. High uncertainty in the timing of cigs returning to KOXR & KCMA (+/- 3 hours). In general, timing of cig/vsby restrictions may be of +/- 2 hours and minimum flight cats off by one or two.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. FEW-SCT (015-030) VFR conds are possible to likely for much of the time through at least 03-06Z Sat. Then, MVFR cigs BKN/OVC (010-020) are expected to prevail through around 18Z Sat. Thereafter, another period of SCT VFR conds is possible thru end of fcst pd. There is also a 10% chance of OVC008-009 cigs from 06Z to 12Z Sat. There is a 40% chance of east wind component reaching 7-8 kt from 09Z to 16Z Sat.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Arrival of cigs tonight may be off +/- 3 hours. There is 40% chance for cigs OVC005-009 when cigs arrive tonight.

MARINE
23/858 AM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas (at times) through Memorial Day weekend. GALE force wind gusts are expected to persist through the overnight hours. On Friday, GALES are expected to become more localized around Point Conception and the Northern Channel Islands. There is also a 50% chance of GALE force gusts across NE portions of PZZ670 this afternoon through this evening.
Thereafter, minimal chances for GALES, and seas are expected to remain below SCA thresholds.

For the northern Inner Waters, SCA winds are expected to continue into late tonight, with a 60% chance of GALE force gusts this afternoon and evening. Over Memorial Day weekend, moderate confidence in SCA winds each afternoon through evening.

For the Santa Barbara Channel, SCA winds winds will be more widespread this afternoon through late tonight, reaching eastern portions of the zone including the Ventura County coastline with a 15% chance of GALE force wind gusts in the western portion of the Channel. There is a moderate chance for SCA level winds across the western portion of the Channel each afternoon and evening over the remainder of Memorial Day Weekend.

For the Inner Waters off the Los Angeles and Orange County coasts, moderate confidence in conditions remaining below advisory levels this weekend. However, there is a 20-40% chance for local gusts up to 25 kt to occur each afternoon through evening today through Monday near Malibu, through the San Pedro Channel, and in the far western portion of the zone, with the highest chances today and Sunday.

BEACHES
23/1206 AM.

A long period south-southwest swell will bring elevated surf conditions up to 6 feet along with a high risk for hazardous rip currents for some south facing beaches over Memorial Day weekend, with Saturday through Monday being the peak. Considering the expected high beach attendance for the holiday, ocean rescues may be numerous. If you plan on swimming in the ocean, be sure to swim near an occupied lifeguard tower.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 645-670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 645-670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Saturday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).