Sunrise 5:59 AM   Sunset 8:28 PM Moonrise 2:31 AM   Moonset 5:47 PM

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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 1051 Pm Edt Tue Jul 2 2024
Overnight - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 7 seconds. Wed - E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 7 seconds. Wed night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 7 seconds and se 1 ft at 15 seconds. Thu - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 8 seconds and se 1 ft at 14 seconds. Thu night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 11 seconds and S 1 ft at 8 seconds. Fri - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 10 seconds and S 2 ft at 3 seconds. Fri night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Sat - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Sat night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers after midnight. Sun - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Sun night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 1051 Pm Edt Tue Jul 2 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - A cold front offshore will maintain a slight chance of showers and overnight. High pressure brings drier weather through the rest of the work week. Better rain chances are expected by the weekend.

FXUS62 KILM 030056 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 856 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
Seasonable temperatures for July are expected on Wednesday as high pressure builds in from the north. As the high moves offshore later this week, increasing heat and humidity could lead to elevated heat indices developing by the weekend and into early next week. Diurnal coverage of showers and thunderstorms begin to increase this weekend.

UPDATE
No major changes made to the forecast at this time. Updated aviation discussion below.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
High pressure to our north and subsidence aloft will maintain quiet weather overnight and into Wednesday. Onshore flow overnight may push some isolated showers over the coastal waters onshore in parts of southern Georgetown county. These showers are likely to be brief if they occur. Inland, lows could drop into the mid or lower 60s with light winds overnight. Onshore flow near the coast will keep things mixed and a few degrees warmer than inland counterparts; lows in the lower 70s.

Quiet on Wednesday with subsidence aloft and high pressure still dominating. Better moisture advection in the low levels may allow for a few stray showers to develop over SC with a strong inversion overhead. PoP is currently limited to around 10%.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Ridging aloft from the southwest will maintain subsidence through the near term keeping the forecast dry. Surface high pressure center shifts from north of the area to northeast, allowing for low level southerly flow to redevelop. Seasonable low temps (upper 60s - low 70s) Wednesday night will warm to above normal for the 4th of July. Highs Thursday in the low to mid 90s, with near 90F close to the coast. Plenty of July sunshine with scattered diurnal clouds. Dewpoints will be a bit higher than Wednesday, with forecasted heat indices in the triple digits but just below heat advisory criteria. Above normal low temps Thursday night in the low 70s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Extended period of heat and humidity in store for the long term period as center of surface high pressure shifts east of the area, leading to dewpoints well into the 70s each day. Upper level ridging still present Friday, albeit weaker, will weaken further on Saturday. This will allow for a few afternoon storms along I-95 Friday, and slightly greater coverage on Saturday.
The Carolinas will be between troughing to the west and an upper low to the east Sunday into next week, with PWATs over 2" and sufficient instability to warrant 40-50% chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day. Above normal temperatures through the long term, with mid to upper 90s Friday and Saturday, with mid 90s Sunday into next week. Elevated humidity will lead to a chance for heat advisories (away from the coast)
every day Friday through Tuesday. Low temps in the mid 70s will provide little relief.

One last note: while some parts of the eastern Carolinas did pick up substantial rain over the past week, many did not. This was most apparent across portions of South Carolina's Pee Dee region where 30-day rainfall totals are running less than 20 percent of normal. Data collected by authors of the U.S. Drought Monitor show that agricultural impacts from the drought are worsening quickly in this area. Since no substantial rainfall is expected until at least the weekend, these drought conditions will only continue to worsen.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Predominant VFR expected through the 00Z TAF period. Onshore flow and low chances of showers in NE SC could bring some near MVFR CIGs around the area tonight, but they may stay south and over the water as to not impact the terminals. KMYR/KCRE are most at risk, but kept CIGs scattered. Towards the morning there's also another chance for MVFR CIGs at all coastal terminals, but guidance is suggesting 3-4.5 kft at lowest.
Meanwhile, inland terminals will see light and variable winds with clear skies, no fog expected at this time. Any restrictions should clear up by Wednesday morning with VFR expected through the rest of the day.

Extended Outlook...VFR should dominate through the end of the work week. Slight chance of flight restrictions this weekend as chances for convection return.

MARINE
Through Wednesday... Onshore flow continues through the next 24 hours. Dominant swell will continue to be a NE swell at around 3-4 feet and 6 seconds. Choppy seas will gradually improve overnight as winds turn easterly into Wednesday. Easterly wind wave on Wednesday will gradually diminish, yielding to an increase SE swell. Throughout the day, a long-period SE swell around 1 foot and 17 seconds will begin to push into the region.
The addition of NE to E wind waves and the multiple SE wave sets could make for rough conditions by Wednesday afternoon.

Wednesday Night through Saturday...Easterly winds over the coastal waters will shift to southerly Thursday night, and remain out of the south into next week with Bermuda high reestablishing itself. Seas 2- 3 ft Wednesday night into the weekend. Long period (2-3 ft at 11-12 sec) ESE swell from Hurricane Beryl is expected to reach our area sometime on Thursday, likely later in the afternoon, with some weaker forerunner swells having possibly reached our area on Wednesday. An 8-9 sec E swell will be mixed in for a few days, with southerly wind chop joining the wave spectrum on Saturday.
Widely scattered thunderstorm chances return to the coastal waters forecast Friday night.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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New Topsail Inlet
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Tue -- 12:05 AM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:48 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:19 AM EDT     2.59 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:51 AM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:52 PM EDT     3.55 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
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New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina, Tide feet

New River Inlet
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Tue -- 02:47 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:15 AM EDT     2.59 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:08 AM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:38 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:48 PM EDT     3.55 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
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New River Inlet, North Carolina, Tide feet

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