Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Homeland Park, SC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 620 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Mostly Dry and Cooler with Below Normal Temperatures Returning as Weak High Pressure Builds into the Region

2) Gusty Winds Expected Again Today

Mostly clear skies are in place this morning but a deck of cirrus is approaching from the west. This cloud deck will likely hold together well enough to allow scattered to broken cloud cover to push across the area this morning before clearing out early this afternoon. So the main change needed this update was increasing cloud cover through the early afternoon hours. The 06Z HRRR and NAMNest have backed off on spotty light rain holding together and pushing across the forecast area this morning so have higher confidence that dry conditions will continue.

Gusty winds will return early this morning, lingering through this evening east of the mountains and late tonight across the mountains.
Slightly higher gusts are expected today, ranging mostly from 25-35 mph. However, elevations above 3,500 ft will see gusts from 40-50 mph. With gusts remaining below 45 mph for most locations, a Wind Advisory will not be needed. RHs will drop into upper 20s to upper 30s across the lower elevations this afternoon thanks to gusty NW downslope flow. Wet antecedent conditions will limit any fire weather concerns despite lower RHs and gusty winds. Temps this afternoon will be noticeably cooler, ending up a few degrees below normal. Highs east of the mountains will only reach into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Highs across the mountains will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s below 3,500 ft and the mid 50s to mid 60s above 3,500 ft. The 06Z HRRR and NAMNest now show spotty showers remaining south of the forecast area tonight. However, the 06Z NAMNest does now show the potential for some NW flow rain showers this evening into late tonight. With no real run to run consistency from the high-res models regarding PoPs, opted to maintain a dry forecast through tonight. Lows will end up a few degrees below normal tonight with temps dropping into lower to upper 40s across the mountains and the low to mid 50s east of the mountains.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 140 AM EDT Thursday: Mild and mostly dry to start off the weekend. The synoptic flow starts to flatten out by Saturday as surface high pressure filters into the southeast from the central CONUS. The air mass remains rather dry as W/NW flow keeps the moisture to the south until Saturday night. Guidance has PWATs increasing gradually through the end of the period. Winds continue to diminish on Friday and become very light through the beginning of the weekend. Not much terms of precipitation as PoPs start to trend upward (15-25%) across the mountain zones ahead of the next system that comes in the extended period. Other than light winds, dry conditions and reduced humidity, the short term is quiet.
Temperatures remain mild and near normal.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 155 AM EDT Thursday: By Sunday, moisture continues to return to the area. Upper flow becomes quasi-zonal with multiple shortwaves moving across the southeast into Monday and Tuesday. This allows swaths of DPVA to slide across the area and bring a more unsettled pattern. This allows for some guidance to point at increasing shower chances, especially across the mountains, Sunday and becoming more widespread into Monday and Tuesday night. It doesn't mean everywhere will receive rain, but the atmosphere should be unsettled enough that chances increase across the CWA Not looking like much in terms of any severe weather though, more showery stuff with possible rumbles of thunder. Temperatures for the extended look near normal with a slow, gradual warming through the middle of the week.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: Dry and VFR through the 12Z TAF period with periodic cirrus developing at times. 06Z high-res guidance has backed off on the -RA potential this morning as activity should fall apart prior to reaching the western Carolinas. Wind direction will be primarily W/WNW through the period. Winds will pick up shortly after daybreak with another gusty day expected. Gusts will be slightly higher compare to yesterday, ranging from 20-30 kts. Gusts will gradually diminish east of the mountains this evening but will remain elevated at KAVL through late tonight.

Outlook: Lighter (but still breezy) winds return Friday. VFR and mostly dry through the first half of the weekend. Shower and thunderstorms chances return late this weekend into early next week.
Mountain valley fog and low stratus are possible each morning over the weekend.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.