Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Parker Strip, AZ

DISCUSSION
Through the Weekend.

The upper level low that has been sitting over the region the past few days will shift inland today. Meanwhile, a reinforcing shot of energy will dig through the cyclonic flow, which will deepen the low as it moves into Southern Nevada. This will result in strong forcing around the base of the low along with very cold temperatures aloft, which will allow for scattered precipitation to develop. With strong forcing, cold core processes, and weak increases in moisture ahead of the low- much of the area has at least a 20% chance for seeing precipitation today or tonight, with the highest chances north of the I-15. While thunderstorms with sudden gusty winds, small hail, and lightning cannot be ruled out for specific locations, the coldest temperatures aloft, modest instability, and highest mid-level lapse rates will be in central Nye County, Lincoln County, and northern Mohave County. This is where SPC added a risk for general thunderstorms today, which is reasonable given the set up. Even showers could produce sudden gusty winds today given the dry low levels. as the low winds up and lifts into Southwest Utah, strong forcing should allow for an area of precipitation to linger in Lincoln County through northeast Clark and northern Mohave County overnight and Tuesday.

Tuesday into Wednesday, there will be a break in impactful weather as ridging builds into the region. Below normal temperatures today will warm to near normal or slightly above normal for Tuesday and Wednesday. AFter Wednesday, the weather pattern becomes active again as a trough moves through the Northern Plains. Ensembles are coming into better agreement that a trough will move through the region Thursday and Friday, but the strength of the trough is still uncertain. It can be said- precipitation should largely remain north of the area where there is better moisture and forcing. Also, increasing confidence that gusty winds will develop areawide on Thursday with widespread probabilities of about 50% for impactful wind gusts over 40 MPH. As the flow turns north on Friday, gusty are expected to linger in the Colorado River Valley on Friday and cooler temperatures return to the region. This will be short lived though as ridging should build back in again for the weekend, ending any leftover gusty winds and warming temperatures back up Saturday and Sunday.

AVIATION
For Harry Reid
For the 06Z Forecast Package
Winds have diminished somewhat this evening, but southwest gusts to around 20 knots are still expected through much of the overnight hours. All showers have moved out of the region and we are expected just a FEW clouds around 10kft overnight. Winds are forecast to briefly diminish Monday morning with wind speeds remaining southwest around 10-12 knots, but are expected to once again increase after 20z with gusts between 20-25 knots. Shower chances will once again develop Monday afternoon with most expected to remain anchored to the higher terrain, however a stray shower or two can't be ruled out over the terminal. If that occurs, we can expected to see CIGs around 6-8kft along with the possibility of erratic winds.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California
For the 06Z Forecast Package
Just a FEW-SCT clouds remain over most areas this evening as all showers have moved out of the region. The exception will be over northwest Arizona where CIGs around 6-8k feet remain, but are expected to dissipate after 10z.
Another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms is expected to move across the area Monday afternoon into Monday evening, with particular focus across the southern Great Basin and the higher terrain of southern Nevada. Ceilings will generally hover around 10- 15kft, dropping to 6-8kft in shower activity. Winds are expected to remain southwesterly overnight with most areas seeing wind gusts under 20 knots. Southwest winds will increase Monday afternoon with gusts between 20-30 knots. The exception will be KBIH where northerly winds 10-20 knots are expected.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.