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FXUS65 KVEF 022025 AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 125 PM PDT Mon Oct 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
Light showers possible today across southeastern Nevada as this system begins to lift out of our area. Temperatures remain well below normal, but gradually warm throughout the week as high pressure builds. Dry conditions prevail into the weekend.

SHORT TERM
Today and Tuesday.

The potent trough that brought us active weather over the weekend is beginning to lift out of the area today. As this occurs, the cold air aloft will move north with it. With sufficient surface heating and moisture, scattered showers are expected across southeastern Nevada. The 12z HRRR paints the high terrain in this area with 20- 40% PoPs, quickly diminishing around sunset. Amounts will be light, but with snow levels around 9000 feet, could see a thin coat of snow on the highest peaks. Temperatures around the region remain well below normal for early October.

Tomorrow, temperatures warm 5-8 degrees as this system exits and heights rise. Northwesterly flow aloft will keep winds at the surface from the north, but wind speeds remain light with a weak pressure gradient. Dry conditions return to the CWA.

LONG TERM
Wednesday through the weekend.

High pressure building over the PacNW is forecast to tighten the N-S pressure gradient over the region, inducing breezy north winds. As usual, these will be maximized in the Colorado River Valley, where gusts of 30-40 mph will be possible. Latest NBM has a 30-50% chance of 30+ mph wind gusts in the CO River Valley on Wednesday and Thursday. Main impacts will be boating-related, with increased waves likely. The N-S pressure gradient relaxes as we head into the weekend.

Otherwise, quiet and warming conditions are forecast for the region as an upper-level ridge builds over the western US. By this weekend, temperatures warm to a few degrees above normal. Low precipitation chances may return to northwestern Arizona on Saturday as a fizzling cut-off low tries to drift inland, but confidence in this materializing is low. In general, dry conditions are expected for much, if not all, of the CWA in the extended forecast.

AVIATION
For Harry Reid...Winds will be light through the evening with speeds under 8 kts favoring a northwesterly direction but may be more variable when wind is under 5 kts. A few showers are possible through the early evening over the Spring Mountains and areas north of Clark County, but the terminal is not expected to be impacted. Overnight, winds should turn to the southwest. FEW-SCT mid level clouds stream through the area today as well, clearing out tonight. Light winds continue Tuesday with even fewer clouds.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Precipitation today should mostly be confined to the southern Great Basin. However, a few rain showers cannot be ruled out over the Spring Mountains to the west of the Las Vegas Valley in the afternoon. Any showers are not expected to impact any TAF sites.
Wind speeds should be 10 knots or less at all terminals throughout the day. FEW to SCT mid level clouds stream through the forecast area today, clearing overnight. Light winds and few, if any clouds are expected through mid-day Tuesday.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.

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