Sunrise 5:57 AM   Sunset 7:14 PM Moonrise 4:30 PM   Moonset 4:29 AM

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FXUS65 KVEF 200800 AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 100 AM PDT Sat Apr 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will bring very warm temperatures through early next week. Low pressure will bring breezy southwest winds beginning Monday, followed by a cooling trend and chances for showers late in the week into next weekend.

SHORT TERM
through Tuesday night. Midnight satellite loop showed only a few mid level debris clouds remaining in our CWA from earlier shallow convection. Surface obs showed locally breezy winds in the Barstow area and temperatures areawide averaging a degree or two warmer than 24 hours earlier. The large scale picture is fairly clear - low pressure to our south will move away today, and high pressure will build in through Monday. This will bring the warmest temperatures of the season thus far, with Las Vegas reaching 90F for the first time either today or tomorrow, and lower-elevation sites such as Needles and Death Valley expected to reach 100F. This will lead to Moderate heat risk at the lowest elevations, which will warrant extra caution by anyone spending time outdoors, but no heat headlines. However, smaller-scale details are murkier. Yesterday afternoon, thunderstorms developed over the west side of the Sierra crest. Weakly unstable air is expected in that area again this afternoon, with lifted indices around -2 forecast. The departure of the low will turn the steering flow more westerly, which could lead to an errant storm drifting over to the east side of the crest.
Blended in some PoPs from the CAMs to cover this possibility.
Similar conditions are possible again Sunday, and what happens this afternoon will be a good clue for tomorrow. Winds will also become a concern beginning Monday, as the ridge axis moves to our east and southwest flow develops over our area. Monday and Tuesday should be breezy to locally windy, with temperatures coming down from their peaks, especially on Tuesday. At this time, winds do not look like they will be strong enough to warrant headlines, but will continue to monitor.

LONG TERM
Wednesday through Saturday.

Cooler and gustier conditions remain the expectation in the long term period, though there is considerable uncertainty within the finer details. A southern stream shortwave and a stronger northern stream disturbance will phase together in some fashion by late in the week, though phasing storm systems like this are typically not well resolved by our numerical models. On Wednesday, a southwesterly flow aloft will prevail with above normal temperatures and breezy conditions in the afternoon. However, as troughing approaches on Thursday temperatures will cool closer to normal and breezy to windy conditions will overspread much of the region. The primary trough axis looks to move through the area on Friday or Saturday, which will mark the coolest days of the week. There has also been indications that some anomalous moisture will get wrapped into this storm system which may bring some shower activity to the region, especially across our northern zones.

AVIATION
For Harry Reid...Winds remain light and follow their typical diurnal patterns through the TAF period. The chance of sustained winds of 10+ knots remains low throughout the day, peaking around 25% in the late afternoon. FEW-SCT mid-level and high clouds this afternoon, clearing out in the evening.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Light and diurnal winds expected at most of the area TAF sites today. Speeds likely (75% chance) remain below 10 knots for the Las Vegas Valley and Colorado River Valley airports. KDAG will see sustained winds of 10-15 knots this morning and again this evening. At KBIH, light north or variable winds persist through the early afternoon before a push of west-northwest winds arrives 22z- 00z. Speeds of 10+ knots may accompany this push, but winds weaken and turn more northerly around sunset. FEW-SCT mid-level and high clouds today, with bases aoa 10kft.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.

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