Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Holly Ridge, NC

UPDATE
No major changes to the previous forecast although did adjust temps down a bit overnight, at least to start based on current obs and the expectation of decent radiational cooling at least the first part of the night until low-level winds likely increase a bit.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
High pressure will continue to bring mainly clear/sunny skies tonight and Sunday with moderating temperatures. Low tonight will fall to the upper 20s to lower 30s with highs Sunday low to mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Warming with increasing rain chances through the period as we sit in SW flow. A shortwave will pass overhead Sunday night with a wave of moisture with it. Some drier air will filter in behind the shortwave for early Monday with lower rain chances, but this will be short- lived. Through Monday we'll sit in a stream of 1-1.5" PWATs with small disturbances passing through aloft, supporting at least a chance for showers. Temperatures will warm 10-15 degrees from the near term, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s Sunday night and 50s Monday night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Rain chances will continue to increase through Wednesday ahead of a cold front. I've added a slight chance of thunder to the forecast Wednesday morning. This is primarily due to the strong forcing with the front but the limiting factor will be instability as it still only looks ~500 J/kg at best. This will also influence our rainfall threat, as it looks like the highest chances for flooding will be due to training storms if they set up over the same area. Soils are dry for now, so the threat is still low confidence at this time. The front will move through late Wednesday with high pressure building in for the end of the work week. Coldest conditions will be Thursday right behind the front with a slight warm up through the end of the period and perhaps the formation of a coastal trough/increasing rain chances as high pressure pushes offshore for next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
High confidence in VFR conditions across SE NC/NE SC through 00Z Monday. Surface high pressure will be shifting offshore allowing for mainly SW winds to increase a bit and gust to around 15 kt after around 14Z Sunday until around 21Z.

Extended Outlook...An approaching front and low pressure system from the west has a low to moderate chance of bringing MVFR ceilings and visibility in rain to the area Monday into Wednesday. VFR Thursday.

MARINE
Through Sunday...Light and varying winds will become W-SW tonight and continue into Sunday. Speeds will increase to 10 to 15 KT Sunday with higher gusts. Seas invof 2 FT tonight will build to 2 to 4 feet by Sunday afternoon.

Sunday Night through Thursday...SW winds around 10 kts with seas 1-3 ft will hold until Tuesday night. Conditions will then worsen ahead of a cold front with Small Craft Advisory conditions likely due to +25 kt gusts and +6 ft seas. The front will cross the waters late Wednesday with winds becoming NW and Small Craft conditions possibly lingering into Thursday.

CLIMATE
Record low of 20 degrees tied at N. Myrtle Beach (KCRE) today.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.