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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 1044 Pm Edt Tue Oct 3 2023
Overnight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt late this evening and early morning. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Wed night..NE winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Thu..NE winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thu night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers, mainly in the evening.
Fri..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

AMZ200 1044 Pm Edt Tue Oct 3 2023
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will dominate over the eastern u.s. Through mid- week, maintaining dry weather and northeast winds. Cold front forecasted to move across the area late Friday.

FXUS62 KILM 040525 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 125 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure prevails through much of the week, keeping the area mostly dry with temperatures near normal. Just a slight chance of showers ahead of a cold front Thursday and Friday, mainly near the coast. After the front moves through, this weekend brings the biggest dose of fall seen so far this season.

UPDATE
No big changes necessary from the ongoing forecast with this update. 6z aviation discussion below.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
Persistence forecast through Wednesday as surface high pressure off to the northeast prevails. NBM has performed reasonably well for temperatures and expect lows tonight to reach the middle to upper 50s. Highs Wednesday will be similar to today's values mainly in the lower 80s. Little to no cloud cover expected as the mid level blocking pattern remains firm.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Moisture on the increase this period, not that it really means much. Offshore high pressure continues the deep easterly flow, becoming a bit more southeasterly by Thursday evening. Lows Wednesday night a bit warmer this time...low 60s for most, with upper 50s in the far inland areas within the SC Pee Dee region.

Will see mostly an increase in cloud cover Thursday, though the sun won't be blocked out. Highs again in the low 80s, with dewpoints escalating quickly into the mid-to-upper 60s. Offshore showers may try to scrape the coast in the afternoon, particularly along and north of Cape Fear. Thursday night feels almost muggy, with lows in the low-to-mid 60s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Moisture continues to increase Friday ahead of a cold front.
Still, not much rain associated with this front, with only a slight chance of showers in the coastal regions by Friday afternoon. Seeing slightly more instability this forecast cycle, but it's still not enough to include thunder in the forecast for now. Want to give it one more day to see how it looks. Once again, highs in the low 80s. Rain chances taper off after sunset, with the speed of the front seemingly picking up a bit from yesterday. Lows Friday night a degree or two cooler than the previous night.

Calling all fall lovers: This is where the forecast gets fun.
Front should be well offshore by Saturday morning. Likely will see some wrap-around moisture coming in Saturday, but not very confident in this producing anything in the way of a stray shower or drizzle. A strong dose of fall air starts infiltrating the area, with winds now out of the northwest. Highs Saturday in the upper 70s.

Jeans and hoodies will be needed by Saturday night and the nights thereafter, with widespread lows in the upper 40s. Highs struggle to hit 70 Sunday and Monday, before rebounding a bit to the mid 70s by Tuesday. Open the windows, put on a scary movie, and carve a pumpkin!

AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR conditions expected through the period as a persistence forecast remains in place. Few to scattered diurnal clouds this afternoon along with some stratocu moving onshore, but no ceilings expected. Northeast winds continue today, with easterly sea breeze at MYR/CRE in the afternoon.

Extended Outlook...Confidence is high in mostly VFR conditions prevailing through Thursday. Approaching cold front may yield vis/cig restrictions on Friday as low-level moisture increases.
Behind the cold front, cig restrictions may persist into Saturday before moisture scours out, leaving VFR conditions through Sunday.

MARINE
Through Wednesday...Persistence forecast applies to the coastal waters forecast as well. Winds will be from the northeast in a range of 15-20 knots perhaps leaning toward the lower end of the range briefly late tonight. Significant seas will be 3-5 feet and although a six footer or two can't be ruled out especially across the outer waters it appears to be sufficiently isolated not to warrant a headline.

Wednesday Night through Sunday...Northeasterly winds expected through Friday, generally 10-15kts, with gusts up to 20-23kts, particularly Thursday. Seas 2-4ft, with a few 5ft waves spotted 20nm from shore. By Friday evening, a cold front approaches the waters, quickly pushing towards the Gulf Stream by Saturday morning. Winds back northerly Friday night, settling on northwest Saturday and Sunday. Wind speeds and seas remain consistent. Swells out of the ENE persist at 8-10 seconds.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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New Topsail Inlet
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Tue -- 05:30 AM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:22 AM EDT     3.96 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:29 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:43 PM EDT     3.08 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina, Tide feet

Bannermans Branch
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Tue -- 01:46 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:00 AM EDT     1.43 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:47 PM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:23 PM EDT     1.58 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina, Tide feet

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