Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Holly Ridge, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A front will remain quasi-stationary near the NC/VA border today.
Bermuda High Pressure well offshore will direct a very humid southwest wind across the eastern Carolinas. It shouldn't take more than a few hours of sun this morning to get a healthy cumulus field to bubble up.

Convective coverage is the big question mark for today. The airmass should become moderately to strongly unstable with SBCAPE rising to 2000-3000 J/kg and capping eroding to zero. Influence from a shortwave passing east across WV and VA this afternoon and this evening may extend far enough south to enhance our convective coverage. However there are large disparities between high-res (HRRR, NAM) guidance which shows very little activity versus synoptic (ECMWF, GFS) guidance and its associated MOS output which has much better potential for storms.

Given recent history in this airmass and the anticipated influence of an inland moving seabreeze front and convective outflows arriving from the northwest later today, I'll go closer to the synoptic models and their statistical output today with forecast PoPs 50 percent along the coast and up to 70 percent for Elizabethtown and Lumberton.

With dewpoints 73-76 and precipitable water values near 2.0 inches, heavy rainfall rates are possible in any of today's storms. Storm motion vector should be toward the east at 20 knots, hopefully minimizing the potential for excessive rainfall.

Inland convection should end during the evening. Scattered showers or storms could linger a bit longer near the coast as the influence from the shortwave passing by to our north takes a bit longer to wane. Lows should reach the lower 70s inland with mid 70s along the coast.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
The overall weather pattern remains the same with warm and moist southerly flow around Bermuda High. In the mid levels, the eastern Carolinas remain on the outer periphery of ridge to our south, centered north of the Bahamas. Shortwaves riding over the top of the ridge and minor perturbations in the SW to W flow aloft could enhance the localized convection, but it does look like the ridge begins to build up from the south pushing this enhanced activity slowly northward into midweek. Therefore, expect daily shwr/tstm activity, initiated along sea breeze and any localized boundaries or due to differential heating, but overall expect stronger or severe convective activity to remain north. In saying this, with pcp water values above 2 inches, expect convection each day and boundary interactions to produce scattered to numerous shwrs/tstms with torrential rain and localized flooding remaining a threat with this very moist pattern present. Steering flow and flow aloft will remain out of the west so storms and debris clouds that develop inland of the coast, should track toward the coast. As ridge builds slowly northward into midweek, heights will rise and temps will warm, reaching into the low to mid 90s with overnight lows in the 70s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
By Wednesday, the H5 ridge builds west and north and shortwaves to the north dampen out some. Therefore expect convective activity to diminish through midweek, Wed into Thurs with more localized and less shwr/tstm activity. The next digging mid level trough will drive a front/trough eastward by Friday. The timing of the front will determine how active it could be, but for now, it looks like the best potential for shwrs/tstms will come during the earlier part of Friday. Pcp water values as low as 1.6 inches Wed through Thurs will increase closer to 2 inches again ahead of the front on Fri.

High pressure will build down behind the front with pcp water values dropping as low as 1.3 inches behind the front on early Sat. Should see a few degree drop in dewpoints also allowing overnight temps to drop to around 70 instead of mid 70s we have been experiencing.

Building ridge through midweek will allow temps to soar well above normal with temps reaching well into the 90s most places Wed and Thurs. Combined with high humidity, should see portions of area reaching near Heat Advisory criteria with heat index values above 100 and pushing 105 in spots, both Wed and Thurs aftn. The height falls associated with mid-level trough moving through on Fri will bring aftn highs down several degrees especially by Sat. This will be shortlived with extreme heat possible into next week as strong ridge builds in from the west with limited, if any convection.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Latest HRRR and WRF guidance suggest convective activity to wane after 00Z, leaving a mid and upper deck of clouds moving across the terminals overnight. Winds inland terminals may drop to 4 kt or less from the SW overnight. With this possibility have placed the possibility of MVFR ground fog across LBT but not so much for FLO at this time. The coastal terminal winds should stay AOA 5 kt keeping widespread ground fog at bay for the most part. Otherwise, weak impulse aloft may instigate convection around Cape Fear prior to daybreak Sun, have included MYR/CRE in this possibility but confidence remains low. The high res guidance does indicate convection to increase in coverage by mid-aftn inland and at the coast, however went hier in the coverage they dictate. By and after 23Z, much of the activity should wane, with majority of activity well NW thru N of the FA.

Extended Outlook...Brief flight restrictions due to intermittent/periodic showers and thunderstorms are possible through Thursday.

MARINE
Through Sunday night... Bermuda High Pressure centered well offshore will ridge westward across Florida while a front remains stalled along the NC/VA border. In between these features a humid southwest wind is expected across the Carolinas today through tonight with speeds averaging 15 knots. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely develop along the seabreeze front around noon today. While the seabreeze itself will move inland, winds aloft will tend to push storms eastward and over the water. Lightning, reduced visibility in heavy rain, and some gusty wind is possible. Storms will continue to fire up inland through late in the day with marine impacts remaining possible through late this evening.

Monday through Thursday...Persistent S-SW return flow around the western periphery of the Bermuda High will continue through the week. Overall, expect SW winds 10 to 15 kts with gusts mainly near shore each aftn into early evening in sea breeze.
This will maintain wind waves of 3 to 4 ft mixing with a minimal longer period SE swell. Gradient will tighten a bit with approach of cold front Thurs night into Fri. Winds should increase up to 15 to 20 kts late Thurs into Fri with seas reaching up to 5 ft.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.