Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Reed Creek, GA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 220 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Gusty winds expected through the late afternoon

Sky cleared out and we have mixed deeply enough to allow strong wind gusts to reach to the surface across most of the forecast area. Frequent gusts of 30-40 mph can be expected at the lower elevations, and 40-50 mph across the ridgetops and peaks, until we start to cool off in the early evening. The cat's out of the bag on this one. The wind gusts have been strong enough to cause some power outages across the mountains and that will probably be the case through the rest of the day at higher elevations. Temps were running a few degrees warmer than guidance because of the downslope warming.

The weather should be quiet once we lose the gusty winds this evening. The air mass will continue to be dry courtesy of weak high pressure building in, so low temps will once again be as low as five degrees below normal. We will remain under a brisk but weakening NW flow aloft thru Friday that should bring the center of the high to the mountains late in the day. Winds should not be as gusty. The weaker downslope and cooler air will keep the high temps about five degrees cooler than today.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 124 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Dry and cooler than normal on Saturday, with increasing clouds.

2) Increasing rain chances on Sunday.

Still looks like heights will gently rise on Saturday as the base of a z500 speed max lifts off the Atlantic coast, then level off on Sunday as the upper pattern starts to flatten out.
Some DPVA embedded in a belt of upper-level westerlies will allow for increasing cloud cover on Saturday afternoon and evening, though profiles don't look like they'll be moist enough to support any QPF response.

By Sunday, the low-level flow will take on an increasingly W to SW component, allowing a weak tendril of wraparound moisture to stream in from the Gulf. It's neither a strong flow nor a direct one, so profiles are only expected to moisten slowly...and this will keep QPF response fairly unimpressive even when rain begins Sunday.
Temperatures will start out some 8 degrees below normal on Saturday, then creep to within a category of normal on Sunday with rising heights and low-level WAA.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 201 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Unsettled weather lingers for much of the extended period.

2) Diurnal thunderstorms return each afternoon by mid-week.

3) Temperatures a little below normal through the period, but warmer than this weekend.

Multiple shortwaves will traverse the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast next week within an area of constrained upper flow just to our north. In general, this pattern looks to interact with a broad baroclinic zone over the Southeast to produce deeper moisture flux into the area. Through Monday and Tuesday, it appears that residual subsidence (or based on some GFS and EC ensembles, even a weak surface wedge) over the Carolinas will keep things too stable for thunder to become a concern. Through midweek and beyond, long-range ensembles depict increasingly favorable thunder chances...particularly on Wednesday afternoon as some sources depict surface cyclogenesis and at least a brief period during which we'll see more of a warm-sector like environment. So currently expect improving thunder chances toward the end of the extended...but at this point, no major severe concerns given the better kinematics tend to stay north and west of our area in most ensemble solutions.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: Dry and VFR through the period with only a few high-based stratocu or cirrus streaks. Wind will continue to be the main concern because of the westerly cross-wind at KCLT. The obs have not behaved today and generally the direction has been WSW most of the time, so the new TAF brings the direction around to 260 for the afternoon. Note there will be times when it toggles briefly to WNW. Gusts will be slightly higher compared to yesterday, ranging from 20-30 kts. Gusts will gradually diminish east of the mountains this evening but will remain elevated at KAVL through late tonight. On Friday, the gradient relaxes, so only occasional low-end gusts are expected in the afternoon. Otherwise, clear sky and no vis restrictions.

Outlook: VFR and mostly dry through the first half of the weekend. Shower and thunderstorms chances return late this weekend into early next week. Mountain valley fog and low stratus are possible each morning over the weekend.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.