Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Reed Creek, GA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 200 PM, key messages:

1. Excepting the stratocu over the Smoky Mts and vicinity, clear across the area thru most of tonight with light winds and temperatures a little above daily normals.

2. An area of low stratus looks to develop in the upper Savannah Valley just before daybreak and could last until late morning, and some patchy fog is possible just south of the Blue Ridge Escarpment.

3. Isolated, garden variety showers/storms are possible Tue aftn in the mountains near the TN border.

Subtle changes in the synoptic scale pattern occur over the near term to bring sensible weather more typical for the warm season. Sfc high pressure will drift off the VA/NC coast as upper ridge axis pivots across the Carolinas/GA. Relatively dry dewpoints will be maintained over the eastern half of our CWA this afternoon, with better sfc moisture over the mountains of SW NC allowing the cumulus to develop. Subsidence is likely to limit any deep convection in that area today, however. Low level flow has already turned SE and will veer more southerly tonight in response to the migrating high. The associated moisture flux from the Atlantic suggests low stratus will develop in the Savannah Valley and via slight upslope in the GSP area and in the southern NC foothills. These may take most of the morning to dissipate. A few diurnal cumulus may pop out around the CWA with dewpoints generally being in the 50s. Temps will rise 3-5 degrees warmer than Monday, reaching the lower 80s in most of the Piedmont. With the upper ridge axis being east of the Appalachians, less subsidence is seen there and a few showers/storms could pop out over the mountains, mainly near the TN border; activity could also propagate from TN on weak westerly steering flow late in the afternoon. PoPs of up to about 20% are forecast in the border area. Weak shear and small CAPE imply very little severe threat with any storms, and PWATs are too low to point to much of a flood threat, even though storm motion will be slow.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 145 pm Monday: The axis of an upper ridge will persist near the Southeast Coast through at least the first half of the short term. A surface boundary associated with height falls over the northeast part of the Conus early in the period is forecast to stall from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic W=>N as Southern Plains height falls result in the boundary becoming increasingly stretched parallel to the W/SW flow aloft. Moisture will gradually increase in the warm sector of this boundary, resulting in moderate diurnal destabilization Wed and Thu, especially across the mountains and the northern zones. PoPs for deep convection are advertised both afternoon/evenings, with general 40-50% chances across the mountains, and 20-30% probabilities across the remainder of the area (albeit primarily northwest of I-85). Shear parameters are forecast to be too weak for organized convection Wed...but suppose a pulse-type severe storm can't be ruled out. There could be an uptick in the severe storm potential Thu, as mid-level flow accelerates downstream of TN Valley height falls and instability perhaps improves a bit. Temperatures are forecast to be almost 10 degrees above climo through the period.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 200 pm Monday: A weakening upper ridge, with its axis positioned near the Southeast Coast late in the short term, will continue to weaken and shift east early in the extended, as a dampening short wave trough lifts across the TN/OH Valleys Thu night/early Friday. This will be followed quickly by a more substantial short wave that will dig from the northern Great Plains into the Mid-Atlantic and the Carolinas Friday thru Saturday. These height falls will allow a surface boundary...initially stalled to our N and W...to push towards our forecast area on Friday. This will enhance chances for diurnal deep convection across the area on Friday, warranting likely PoPs across the mountains...and 40-50% chances elsewhere
Forecast shear parameters are not great
but instability should be adequate for a few pulse storms...and perhaps a few multicell clusters. While the front is expected to push east of the area by Saturday...enough moisture may linger to allow for a few showers and perhaps a storm or two to develop as the upper trough sweeps across the region during the afternoon. Dry weather will follow for the last half of the period. Cooler temperatures are expected in the vicinity of, and especially behind the front, but are generally expected to remain above climo through early next week.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: Generally SKC this afternoon and most of tonight. Winds will tend to be SE'ly, although periods of VRB are already being reported; all sites potentially will see VRB overnight. Near-sfc flow will remain SE tonight with fetch off the Atlantic, and numerous sources suggest some stratus will develop over western Upstate SC and far NE GA, up to around the border of NC. An MVFR cig looks likely at KGSP/KGMU but not as confident on cigs at KAND, so kept them VFR. Winds favor S to SW on Tue. A few afternoon SHRA/TSRA are possible over the mountains W/NW of KAVL Tue aftn but otherwise no precip expected near any TAF sites thru Tue evening.

Outlook: Mostly VFR thru Wed, although early morning stratus may be able to develop again Wed. Aftn/evening SHRA/TSRA possible again Wed over the NC mountains. More unsettled weather possible in the second half of the week as frontal system approaches the region.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.