Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Emerald Isle, NC

NEAR TERM /TODAY/
As of 200 AM Tuesday...

Key Messages

- Scattered strong thunderstorms with heavy rain and gusty winds today

- Moderate heat risk today, with "feels like" temperatures of 100- 105

Early this morning, there appears to be several MCVs traversing central and eastern NC. These all should eventually move out of the area, but until they do, there appears to be sufficient moisture and instability to support scattered thunderstorms with heavy rain and gusty winds through around sunrise.

After sunrise, a stalled front draped west to east across the HWY 264 corridor should begin to lift north as the southwesterly low- level flow begins to gradually increase. This will put ENC well into the warm sector. The main difference today compared to the past few days is that forcing looks to be much lower thanks to a lack of shortwaves moving through. Because of this, it looks like the coverage of thunderstorms will be lower, and mainly tied to the diurnal sea/bay/river breezes. Strong heating of a very moist boundary layer should allow moderate to strong instability to build across the area, with MLCAPE of 2000-3000j/kg. Deep layer shear is forecast to be weak (20-25kt), setting up a pulse severe environment. Weaker forcing may make it harder for sustained deep convection, but the tallest cores today will be capable of strong wind gusts (40-60 mph) and small hail. Of note, if any core can be sustained for a longer period of time where convergence is maximized, there is the potential for hail of penny to quarter size. Overall, though, the severe weather risk looks LOW. Where thunderstorms develop, the residually moist airmass will continue to favor intense rainfall rates. While widespread heavy rain is not anticipated, an instance or two of flash flooding cannot be ruled out, with this risk primarily focused over areas that have seen the most rain over the past couple of days.

The lowered coverage of thunderstorms should allow temperatures to be hotter today compared to the past couple of days. This means low 90s inland and mid to upper 80s along the coast. For inland areas, heat indices ("feels like" temps) are forecast to reach the 100-105 range. It looks like we will stay just shy of Heat Advisory criteria, but notable nonetheless.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 200 AM Tuesday...

Increasing inhibition this evening and tonight, plus an overall lack of forcing, should lead to a diurnal decrease in convective activity, with the risk shifting offshore. Meanwhile, a modest southwesterly LLJ and weak WAA should keep temperatures very warm tonight (mid to upper 70s).

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 330AM Sun...

Key Messages:

- Potential for dangerous heat indices midweek into the end of next week.

Wednesday through next weekend...Previously mentioned upper trough will be the main feature of note into the end of the week with this neutrally tilted trough pushing E'wards into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast by Fri. Currently GFS is the deepest and slowest with this trough with the Canadian and ECWMF guidance slightly quicker and weaker with the trough. Either way, at the surface we return to a more summer like pattern with thunderstorms primarily focused along the Seabreeze on Wed/Thurs with an incoming surface cold front from the west becoming the focus for potential shower/tstm activity on Fri. High pressure ridging then builds into the area over the weekend once again drying the area out. Of bigger note will be the hot and muggy conditions expected around midweek as a combination of temps in the 90s Wed/Thurs and dewpoints in the 70s will result in hazardous heat indices with "feels like" temps closer to the 100-110 F range each day. Will have to monitor trends, but the years first heat advisories may be needed next week if the current forecast holds. Once cold front pushes through on Friday temps will decrease slightly and the excessive heat threat will lower this weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 06z Wednesday/...
As of 200 AM Tuesday...

Key Messages

- TSRA risk continues overnight, becoming more scattered on Tuesday

Scattered to numerous TSRA will continue to impact portions of ENC overnight, then become more isolated by Tuesday morning.
Periods of sub VFR CIGs appear likely overnight as well. During the day Tuesday, any low CIGs should scatter out, leading to prevailing VFR conditions. During the afternoon and early evening, isolated to scattered seabreeze TSRA are expected, and the TAFs reflect this expectation. Overall, the coverage is expected to be lower today compared to the past couple of days.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 330AM Sun...A more summer like pattern returns with diurnal thunderstorm activity developing along the Seabreeze on Tue/Wed. Either way this will bring a daily threat for sub-VFR conditions each day. In addition to this, early morning fog development will remain possible for areas that see rain.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 200 AM Tuesday...

Key Messages

- Lower thunderstorm risk today and tonight

Scattered thunderstorms ongoing early this morning are associated with various upper level waves moving through the area. The thunderstorm activity this morning will be capable of gusty winds of 30-40kt and waterspouts. Once this activity shifts further out to sea, there should be a relative minimum in thunderstorm activity compared to the past couple of days. The main risk today will be along the inland-advancing seabreeze, primarily impacting the inland rivers and sounds. The thunderstorm risk then shifts back offshore to the coastal waters by tonight.

Outside of thunderstorm activity, a modest southwesterly background flow of 10-20kt is expected through tonight. A few gusts to 25kt will be possible in the areas that are typically impacted by the strongest thermal gradient (Pamlico Sound/central coastal waters).

LONG TERM /Wednesday though Saturday/...
As of 330AM Sun...By Wed as high pressure settles into the region and thermal troughing sets up the gradient will pinch slightly allowing SW'rly winds Tue night into Wed to increase to 15-20 kts with occasional gusts up near 25 kts at times into Thurs. Seas will generally remain around 2-5 ft through the period keeping us SCA free through at least midweek.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.