Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Emerald Isle, NC

KEY MESSAGES
1) Dry with record heat possible rest of this week.

2) A strong and mostly moisture starved cold front will move through the area Friday evening. Drastically cooler and drier weather behind the front, along with gusty N-NW winds which could bring a period of dangerous marine conditions and minor coastal impacts.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure builds in from the west through most of this week with sunny skies. Building hts as upper ridge strengthens sends temps soaring through the 80s and nearing 90 for some interior locales (record high climate section below).
A back door front moves into nrn parts of ENC later Thur, but quickly retreats north by early Friday with another surge of swrly flow ahea of much stronger front. No moisture with the backdoor front, and only temporary reductions in temps for nrn 1/3 of ENC.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The aforementioned much stronger cold front will sweep through ENC Friday night, and good model agreement with this system. Front still appears moisture stared due to it's very fast movement and no connection to the Gulf. Strong forcing is associated with it however, so a skinny line of showers may drop only a few hundredths at best for most areas in the span of less than an hour Fri evening. Coolest and driest airmass for the fall season thus far builds in behind this front with temps taking a nosedive with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s (inland) and 50s (beaches).

With this strong front, winds rapdidly inc from the NW Fri evening with a short period of gales for most of the waters and sounds, and would bring a sharp increase in high seas especially on Sat as the winds turn northerly and persist to near gales on the coastal waters. Minor coastal impacts could occur too, though short duration of strongest winds may act to limit more appreciable impacts. It's still too soon for specifics on coastal flooding potential.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR SKC as high pressure continues overhead. Light to calm winds tonight, become light srly to sswrly on Wed though speeds only around 5 kt or so. Patchy fog will be possible again overnight and early Wed morning, though not enough confidence to include in the fcst attm.

Outlook (Thu through Sun): Pred VFR conditions cont with high pres nearby. Strong cold front brings brief showers Fri evening, along with gusty swrly winds ahead of it in the afternoon with gusts upwards of around 20 kt, then stronger nwrly gusts to nearly 30 kt briefly behind it Friday night. Winds diminish Sat and esp Sun with high pres building in.

MARINE
Latest obs show light/variable winds around ~5 kt most locales with seas mainly 1-3 ft. High pressure will continue nearby tonight though ease offshore allowing for predom swrly flow but no higher than 5-10 kt. Swrly breezes cont for Wed with speeds of 5-15 kt and seas cont 1-3 ft.

Outlook (Thu through Sun): High pres cont with good boating conditins into Fri. A backdoor front will push through the waters Thursday briefly bringing nerly winds to nrn waters and sounds, then retreats Thur night with swrly winds ensuing. A strong cold front pushes through Friday evening, with swrly winds ahead of it inc to 10-20 kt Fri afternoon, then switching rapidly to nw behind the front and gusting 25-35 kt. Will likely see burst of gale force winds for the waters and sounds, then easing to near gales, esp for the coastal waters, late Fri night into Sat. Seas respond to the high winds by building 6+ ft.

CLIMATE
Record High temps for 10/14 (Wednesday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 86/1975 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 84/1986 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville 89/1919 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 86/1990 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 87/1975 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 88/1975 (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 10/15 (Thursday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 88/1935 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 84/1919 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville 89/1985 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 86/1990 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 89/1985 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 90/1975 (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 10/16 (Friday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 86/1975 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 83/1919 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville 90/1968 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 84/1917 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 86/2008 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 88/1975 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.