Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Emerald Isle, NC

KEY MESSAGES
1) Severe drought conditions and elevated fire concerns persist through next week.

2) Cold front to bring a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms today, followed by much cooler and drier conditions early next week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Severe drought conditions continue to plague the entire Southeast U.S., with rainfall amounts since March 1 running about 10-50% of normal. Locally here in ENC, this equates to rainfall totals running about 2-4" below normal over that same time period. Almost all of ENC remains in Severe Drought (D2), with a small part of Martin County in Extreme Drought (D3). Today's rainfall is expected to be less than 0.10" for most, which is not enough to alleviate these drought conditions.

Given the ongoing drought, fire weather will continue to be a concern until a more substantial rain event occurs. Strong SW winds this morning ahead of a cold front quickly switching to strong N winds behind the front today could be problematic, especially for any fire starts. Winds could gust up to 30-35 mph for a brief period right behind the front inland.

Deep mixing in the afternoons Monday and Wednesday afternoons allows for relative humidities 20-25% and wind gusts around or above 20 mph. Tuesday we will reach low RH's, but winds should remain light with high pressure overhead.

A statewide burn bans remains in effect for all of North Carolina, with additional fire restrictions at all four national forests in NC. Please see statements from the Forest Service for additional information.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Today the persistent ridging of late will briefly break down long enough to allow a cold front to move through the Carolinas. There will be just enough low- level moisture advection ahead of the front to support a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms along the coast and offshore. For the remainder of the forecast area, a couple hours of lighter more stratiform rain is possible right behind the front. Current forecast calls for less than a tenth of an inch for most mainland areas for FROPA with highest amounts along the immediate and portions of OBX receiving slightly more, one or two tenths. While instability will likely be modest closer to the coast and offshore, the bulk of the FA will not have enough insolation ahead of the front which will be on our Wern border shortly after sunrise. Deep layer shear of 30-50kt would be supportive of organized convection if deep updrafts can form, though this seems unlikely. We'll continue to monitor this potential.

Behind the cold front, a substantially cooler and drier airmass will move into the region, with local highs dropping back down closer to what is normal for this time of year. This means highs in the 60s and 70s, with lows dropping back down into the 40s to start the new week. Warming from 80/mid 50s split WED through the remainder of the work-week with high pressure taking control again.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR conditions are expected through late morning before a cold front brings rain showers and a period of MVFR ceilings and strong winds to the airspace through most of the afternoon.

Through about mid morning VFR conditions will persist with light winds and skies free of any low level clouds, with only mid and high level ceilings present. Thereafter, a sharp cold front will bring a surge of strong NW winds to the forecast area from NW to SE from late this morning through early this afternoon, with winds gusting to 25-30 kts. Scattered rain showers and low level clouds will also move through along and behind the front.
Ceilings should range from 2000-3000 ft from late this morning through much of the afternoon, and the lowest ceilings are likely across NE NC, while areas south of US 70 may see only brief restrictions to MVFR levels. Skies will quickly clear this evening, and winds will subside greatly as well, leading to VFR conditions returning and lasting through the night.

Outlook: Pred VFR expected most of next week but could see patchy late night, early morning fog at some terminals.

MARINE
Winds are generally S/SWerly 15-20 kt with seas 2-3 ft through early this morning. The SWerly winds continue strengthening through the morning as the front approaches with winds around 15-20G25-30kt later this morning, highest along the Gulf Stream waters. Through the day today, the front moves through area waters, with winds rapidly switching from SWerly to Nerly. The Nerly post frontal surge will bring a quick hitting threat of wind gusts 25-35 knots with higher end of guidance suggesting wind gusts around 40 knots, especially over Gulfstream and offshore waters. pre-frontal winds have trended down a couple knots, but still elected to keep all marine headlines in place, SCA for all waters but offshore 20-60nm Oregon Inlet to Ocracoke Inlet where Gale Warnings are in place. Given the short duration of gale force gusts over coastal waters currently under a SCA, have opted to keep active SCAs in place, but have kept the mention of gale gust wording in latest MWW additional details. Though gusts of 35-40kt are possible over all offshore waters, the duration was not quite long enough to warrant gale headline issuance elsewhere.

With the stronger winds, seas will also be quick to build Sunday. 3-4 ft around sunrise becoming 4-6 ft late morning with some 6 ft possible. The post frontal Nerly winds will further build seas to 5-10 ft, highest along the Gulf Stream and offshore waters.

In addition to the elevated winds and seas, some scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along this front.
Highest confidence is along the warm Gulf Stream waters, where instability is the highest. Ample deep wind shear brings the the threat of well structured updrafts capable of producing strong wind gusts of 40-50 mph. Inland sounds/rivers will have less instability to play with, so probabilities of strong tstorms is less, but still not zero.

Outlook: Winds and seas quickly decrease Monday, but a weaker back door cold front coming through TUE brings another round of strengthening WSWerly winds to become Nerly 15-25 knots.
Another back door cold front approaches the Carolinas late-week bringing shifting and elevated winds.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ196-203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131-230-231.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ136-137.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 6 AM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Monday for AMZ156-158.
Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ182-184.