Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sneads Ferry, NC

NEAR TERM /TODAY/
As of 315 AM Fri...A cool but pleasant fall morning as we get ready to end the workweek today with latest obs showing temps in the mid to upper 40s inland as winds have decoupled here and good radiational cooling has commenced. Near the coast where there is still some light wind, temps have only fallen into the 50s to low 60s. Otherwise high pressure ridging currently centered near eastern Ohio will extend SE'wards keeping things dry and mostly cloud free across ENC this morning.

As we get further into the day, high pressure ridging shifts SE'wards settling in over the Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas. This will bring light N'rly winds to the area after sunrise with mo clear skies and dry weather forecast today. Do expect some diurnal cumulus to develop this afternoon but this wont bring any impactful weather to the area. Temps today get into the upper 60s to low 70s.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 315 AM Fri... High pressure remains overhead keeping things dry and cloud free for the most part. With winds also expected to decouple tonight, the setup is prime for great radiational cooling. As a result, went a few degrees cooler than guidance across ENC with lows in the low to mid 40s inland and in the 50s along the OBX.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 350 AM Fri...High pressure will build into the area through the end of the week then migrate southward over the weekend. A strong but mainly dry cold front will push through the area early next week, followed by Canadian high pressure bringing well below average temperatures to close out the week.

Saturday and Sunday...High pressure will be centered across the area through tomorrow then will be suppressed southward Sunday as a strong northern stream shortwave and attendant low pressure pushes across the Midwest into the Mid- Atlantic. Light winds continue Saturday into Sunday morning but will increase out of the SW on Sunday as gradients tighten ahead of an approaching cold front from the northwest. Dry weather will prevail through the period with mostly clear skies and comfortable dew points in the mid 40s to mid 50s. A warming trend will continue through the weekend with highs in the mid 70s on Saturday, and around 80 on Sunday. Lows will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s inland to mid 50s to around 60 along the coast Saturday morning, then low to mid 50s inland to lower 60s along the coast Sunday morning.

Monday through Thursday...A mainly dry cold front will push across the area during the day Monday. There will be limited moisture with the front with only a shallow saturated layer mainly below 700mb. Cyclonic flow aloft continues across the eastern CONUS Tuesday into Wednesday with a series of shortwaves moving through the flow aloft. GFS ensembles this morning continue to advertise a dry passage, and the 00z ECM ensembles are now in line with this compared to their (modestly) wet solution at 12z. Kept a slight chance PoP as favorable jet dynamics may support a spotty shower risk. Highs Monday will depend on the timing of the front but generally expect 70s to potentially around 80.

Much cooler and drier air sweeps in behind the cold front as Canadian high pressure builds in from the northwest and strong troughing lingers aloft - up to 2-3 standard deviations below normal compared to climatology. Tuesday and Wednesday will be the coolest days, averaging around 10-15 degrees below normal as highs struggle to climb out of the low 60s and lows fall well into the 40s. With Tds in the 30s and a favorable set up for radiational cooling, would not be surprised to see some overnight lows in the upper 30s. If this is realized, some low temperature records for Wed and Thur AM will be threatened.

AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /Through Friday night/...
As of 1 AM Fri...High pressure will build overhead tonight and on Friday allowing for clear skies and light winds with VFR conditions forecast through the period. That said, a period of diurnally driven afternoon cumulus clouds appear likely on Friday, but minimal impacts are forecast from this cumulus field. As we get into Friday night there is a very low end chance for some ground fog development mainly along areas near the coast as we are forecast to completely decouple and skies are forecast to remain clear Fri night, however given the ample dry air overhead this threat is minimal at best so elected not to add any mention in the TAFs for reduced vis.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 350 AM Friday...Pred VFR conditions expected through the long term. High pressure builds into the area through Saturday then will migrate southward on Sunday as a cold front approaches the area bringing generally clear skies. The cold front will push across rtes Monday but moisture will be limited and chance for precip remains below 20 percent at this time. Nly winds will gust to around 15 kt inland to 25 kt coast Friday morning into early afternoon, then will diminish trough the afternoon. Light winds expected Saturday with increasing SW winds Sunday into Monday ahead of the cold front.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /Through Friday night/...
As of 315 AM Fri...The pressure gradient continues to quickly ease this morning as the remnants of Milton push further out into the Atlantic and high pressure builds in from the north and west. This has allowed winds to quickly ease from west to east this morning. Current obs show N'rly winds at 10-20 kts across our inland rivers and northern sounds which will allow the ongoing SCAs to expire here at 4AM. Across the Pamlico Sound 10-20 kt N'rly winds with gusts up near 25 kts persist but should ease just after daybreak with SCA's ending here by 8AM.
Finally along our coastal waters gales have been cancelled as wind gusts have fall below 35 kts across our southern waters.
The gradient will remain slightly tighter here so N'rly winds at 10-20 kts with gusts up near 25-30 kts and 5-8 ft seas will persist into this afternoon keeping the SCA's across these waters this morning. As high pressure builds into the area winds will ease further down to 5-10 kts tonight with winds becoming light and variable at times. Winds will eventually become W'rly at 10-15 kts by early Sat morning as high pressure ridging shifts overhead. Seas along our coastal waters will gradually lower today and tonight from 5-8 ft to 2-4 ft ending the rest of the SCAs along our coastal waters by 2AM Sat.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 355 AM Fri...High pressure will build into the area from the NW through Saturday. Seas will subside to 2-4 ft on Saturday. A cold front will approach the area Sunday with SW winds increasing to around 10-20 kt and seas beginning to build during the afternoon. SCA conditions possible Sunday night into Monday with SW winds around 20-25 kt and seas around 4-7 ft.
The front will push through sometime Monday with winds becoming W to NW around 10-20 kt behind the front. A secondary surge, associated with strong CAA, will move across the waters late Tues night pushing winds back to 20-25 kt, offering little respite from poor boating conditions for the week.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ196- 203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for AMZ131-137-230-231.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ135.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ150.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ152-154.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ156- 158.