Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Vandenberg AFB, CA

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...10/115 PM.

The forecast remains on track for a significant warmup today thanks to weakening onshore flow and strengthening high pressure over the region. Afternoon highs will climb to 10 to 20 degrees above normal for early June throughout the interior coasts of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties. Heat Advisories are in effect for these areas through this evening. Elsewhere, highs will reach 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Warm conditions will persist into Thursday and Friday for most areas with the exception of the Central Coast, where increasing onshore flow will cool temperatures back down near seasonal normals to close out the week.

In addition to bringing cooler temperatures along the Central Coast, strengthening onshore flow will also bring a return of June Gloom to most beaches and coastal valleys during the overnight and early morning hours through the end of the week. Marine layer stratus and fog is forecast to redevelop along portions of the Central and Southern Coasts by Thursday morning. By Friday morning, most coasts and some of the lower coastal valleys will be enveloped in the gloom.

For the southern portion of the region, primarily over the eastern San Gabriel Mountains, a low (5 percent) chance of a shower or thunderstorm will be present Friday and Saturday afternoon as a weak offshore low directs mid-level monsoonal moisture up from the southeast. While the bulk of the moisture stays south and east of the region, some of the moisture will likely creep into the region bringing PWATs up to around 1 inch.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...10/130 PM.

Conditions will be mostly unvarying through the weekend and into early next week. Coastal areas will see a subtle cooling trend, while interior areas will remain warm in the 90s thanks to continued ridging. Onshore flow will maintain areas of marine layer stratus and fog each morning. Like Friday, there is a small (5 percent) chance for a shower or thunderstorm over the eastern San Gabriel Mountains Saturday afternoon through evening.

AVIATION
11/0009Z.

At 2336Z at KLAX, the marine layer was about 1100 ft deep. The inversion top was at 2900 ft with a maximum temperature of 24 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPRB, KPMD and KWJF.

Low confidence in TAFs for KSBP, and KSMX. There is a 20-50% chance for low clouds below 1000 feet and vsbys in BR/FG at each site after 10Z, highest KSMX. If clouds arrive, VLIFR to LIFR conds are most likely min flight cat due to shallow marine layer.

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs, with high confidence in low clouds returning tonight (except moderate KBUR/KVNY). Lower confidence in min flight cat, but IFR to MVFR most likely. Arrival times may be off +/- 2 hours.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. High confidence in low clouds returning +/- 2 hours from forecast. Lower confidence in cig heights, with a 30% chance OVC007-009. Vsbys likely 6SM or higher, but there is a 25-30% chance for 5SM or lower after 10Z.
Any east wind component is expect to be less than 8 kt.

KBUR... Moderate confidence in TAF. Moderate confidence in low clouds arriving +/- 2 hours from forecast. Lower confidence in cig heights, with a 20% chance of OVC004 cigs and vsbys 5SM.

MARINE
10/202 PM.

Good confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas over the waters along the Central Coast and out 60 NM from shore (and beyond) through at least tonight, with 10 foot seas beyond 30 NM from shore possibly lingering into Thursday morning.
Southerly winds 10-20 knots are likely late Wednesday south of Point Conception, expanding north through Thursday. Then conditions are expected to be relatively mild through early next week for much of the coastal waters.

However, west to northwest wind gusts 15-20 knots (locally 25 knots) will be common each afternoon through early evening Friday through at least early next week across the nearshore waters south of Point Conception (including the Santa Barbara Channel, San Pedro Channel, and Santa Monica Bay).

BEACHES
10/201 PM.

The long period southerly swell responsible for large and hazardous surf will continue into Thursday, although slightly lower wave heights and periods are expected tomorrow. A relative lull between swells is expected over the weekend, then another long period southerly swell from the Souhtern Hemisphere is forecast to arrive early next week, from a slightly more southwest direction (roughly 220 degrees). Additionally, large tides near 7.5 feet are predicted for Saturday through Tuesday. Although next weeks southerly swell appears to have smaller significant eave heights, the combination of the longer period swell and the high tides may lead to minor to locally moderate coastal flooding for south exposed coasts.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT Thursday for zones 87-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Heat Advisory remains in effect until 7 PM PDT this evening for zones 341-347. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Thursday evening for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).