Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Burgaw, NC

UPDATE
No changes to the forecast with the early evening update.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Latest surface analysis shows the old frontal boundary slowly making its way northward into SC Lowcountry. After a significant line of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms made their way through the area early this morning, we have been in a bit of a lull all day.
Spotty showers have occurred in parts of the Grand Strand and the NC coastal plain, but ample cloud cover and a cool, stable layer close to the surface have kept widespread convection at bay. A few more showers and isolated storms will continue to sweep northward from Lowcountry and into the Grand Strand over the next few hours, but for the most part, the lull will continue into tonight. Lows in the mid-to-upper 60s.

The activity really starts to ramp up from west to east before sunrise Monday morning. Hard to describe Monday as anything other than a washout day, with a solid 1-2 inches expected, with locally higher amounts likely. A welcomed sight for the ongoing drought conditions, especially when you consider the 1-2 inches that much o the area recorded today. Held off on a Flood Watch for now, considering that the soils are so dry. Wouldn't be surprised to see advisory-level, minor flooding or ponding, but nothing to warrant widespread warnings. Highs in the low-to-mid 70s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
The large Gulf Coast upper low will be opening up and lifting out to the NE through the period. This will allow a poorly defined warm front to lift across the area. Most of the column remains saturated with PW values still in excess of 1.7" and one of the stronger spokes of vorticity should rotate around the main low continuing our opportunity for moderate to occasionally heavy rain. Changes will then be under way Tuesday as a dry slot develops and pivots up the coast. The drying is only in a relative sense as PW values dropping to 1.4" are still around the 75th percentile for the date. This suggests a continuation of near categorical POPs but with less stress on heavy rain. Tuesday's high temperature guidance was slightly undercut due to the widespread cloud cover, most places attaining a high close to 80.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Wednesday a continuation of Tuesday's trends as the upper low loses its influence locally. We may start with partial sun but the lowered heights will still foster a day of fairly widespread convection. Not so on Thursday as not only does the trough axis finally move offshore but mid level ridging will be building from the west. Expect a warmer afternoon with thunderstorm coverage possibly dropping into the scattered to isolated realm. This upper ridge will be pretty progressive and move east late in the period, moving roughly overhead Friday and then off the coast. Pair this with nearly no convection Friday and most places away from the water will hit or slightly exceed 90, possibly Saturday as well, with only a few degrees shaved off of these values by Sunday.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Overall aviation trends remain in place with current observations checking in from VFR along the coast to MVFR inland. Expect steady state conditions the next few hours before widespread rain with embedded thunder develops/approaches from the south. MVFR restrictions will quickly develop and drop to predominately IFR
Unlike today when we experienced a break
these conditions will prevail most of the day Monday.

Extended Outlook...High confidence in flight restrictions Monday afternoon through Tuesday, with plenty of rain on the way.
Restrictions should continue into Wednesday (moderate confidence), though the rain chances do back off a tad. Things finally dry out by Thursday and Friday, bringing a return to VFR.

MARINE
Through Monday...Easterly winds at 10-15 kts gradually become southeasterly at 15-18 kts with gusts up to 20-22 kts by Monday morning. Seas remain at 2-4 ft through tonight, but pick up considerably after sunrise. Small Craft Advisory kicks in for the coastal waters from Surf City, NC to Little River, SC at 11 AM EDT, and then from Little River, SC to South Santee River, SC at 8 PM EDT. Seas increase to 3-4 ft at the coast, 5-6 ft out 20 nm from shore.

Monday night through Friday... Long fetch southeasterly swell energy will cause the period to initialize with small craft advisory due to 6 ft seas even as wind speeds remain below criteria. Atlantic high pressure will keep flow out of the SE early on turning more to the S Tuesday as weakening Gulf low lifts to the northeast. S to SW flow Tuesday night into Wednesday as this continues should shut down the swell energy and headlines will drop out. Thereafter we transition into a more classical warm season setup except with the high displaced east of Bermuda for S to SW winds that will grow pretty light.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ254-256.