Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Swansboro, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 5:01PM Sunday December 15, 2019 10:52 AM EST (15:52 UTC) Moonrise 8:38PMMoonset 10:12AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 1034 Am Est Sun Dec 15 2019
Rest of today..W winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop late.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 5 to 7 ft after midnight. NEar shore, seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy after midnight. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to rough in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely with a slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Tue night..W winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Wed..NW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Swansboro, NC
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location: 34.59, -77.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 151539 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1039 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will build across the area today then slide offshore tonight and Monday. A strong cold front will cross the area Tuesday night, with cold high pressure building in through Friday. A coastal storm is possible by next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 1030 AM Sunday . No changes with the late morning update as deep layer subsidence apparent in the 12Z KMHX sounding brings clear skies and light to breezy westerly winds have temps within a few degrees of normal for this time of year.

Previous Discussion . Quiet weather as high pres builds across with mainly clr skies. Low lvl thicknesses support temps near to slightly above normal with upr 50s to lower 60s expected.

SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/. As of 220 AM Sunday . High pressure will begin to slide offshore with skies remaining mostly clear. Winds will be quite light and with good radiational cooling have lows reaching upr 30s typically cooler inland spots with low/mid 40s beaches.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 215 AM Sun . Warm weather is expected through Tuesday, before a cold front crosses the region and brings another round of showers Tuesday into Tuesday night. Much colder conditions expected behind the front Wednesday and Thursday, with a possible coastal storm developing next weekend.

Monday and Tuesday . High pressure will ridge in from offshore through Tuesday morning, as a strong cold front and upper level trough approach from the west. Warm SW flow and sunny skies will allow temps to climb into the upper 60s to low 70s Monday afternoon. Then on Tuesday, guidance has continued to delay the passage of the cold front slightly, which will lead to a warmer solution for Tuesday, with highs likely reaching the low 70s in many locations despite mostly cloudy skies.

Expect chances for showers to increase from west to east Tuesday morning, with widespread rain expected from late morning through Tuesday night. Have increased PoPs along the coast overnight, as the front looks a bit slower to exit off the coast. Given the warm and moist atmosphere, some isolated thunderstorms will also be possible, but should be relegated to the immediate coast and offshore. Severe threat looks marginal, as uncertainty remains with how much instability will develop onshore, but the dynamic profile is impressive with 50-70 kts of bulk shear present.

Wednesday and Thursday . Much colder conditions are expected behind the cold front Wednesday, as strong CAA will limit temps from rising very much during the day despite sunny skies. Expect below average highs, mostly in the low to mid 40s. Then, as the base of the upper level trough moves across the area Wednesday night and into Thursday, temps will drop into the upper 20s to low 30s overnight, and then only rebound into the low 40s for highs Thursday afternoon.

Friday and Saturday . Despite continued modest CAA Friday, heights will build as a weak upper level ridge approaches from the west. This will lead to moderating temperatures with highs reaching the upper 40s to low 50s across the area. Then on Saturday, forecast guidance is indicating the possibility of a strong coastal storm forming somewhere along or well off the East Coast. Considerable uncertainty remains, as models have varied greatly from run to run.

AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Short Term /through Tonight/ . As of 620 AM Sunday . High confidence in pred VFR thru period with mainly clr skies as high pres builds across today and slides offshore tonight. Winds will be light to calm tonight and will likely see temps reach dewpts late so can not rule out some patchy fog developing, but not confident enough to add to fcst this far out.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/ . As of 245 AM Sun . VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday morning when another cold front moves through the area and may bring a period of MVFR/IFR conditions through Wednesday morning. VFR conditions return later Wednesday through the end of the period.

MARINE. Short Term /through Tonight/ . As of 620 AM Sunday . Winds and seas have diminished a bit faster than expected with seas now below 6 ft nrn and srn wtrs so will drop SCA these wtrs. Will also end SCA central wtrs a bit earlier around midday given trend of seas dropping quickly.

Prev disc . Winds have started to diminish on the sounds as best surge departs and high pres builds in from the W. With winds expected to cont to diminish rest of the night have dropped the SCA for the Sounds and Alligator river. Winds still gusty coastal wtrs with rough seas 5 to 10 ft. Winds will diminish to 10 to 15 kts today then become light tonight as the high crosses. Seas will subside to 3 to 5 ft today with SCA ending nrn and srn wtrs mid day and central wtrs later this aftn. Seas will cont to subside to 2 to 4 ft tonight.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/ . As of 245 AM Sun . Decent boating conditions expected Monday, but then winds and seas increase ahead of a cold front Tuesday, with continued strong winds and hazardous seas lasting through Thursday.

Winds will be SW 10-15 kts on Monday, and then increase to 20-30 kts on Tuesday. The cold front is expected to cross the waters overnight into Wednesday morning, with winds turning to the NNW at 25-30 kts through Wednesday afternoon. Thereafter, winds become 15-20 kts, except for a period Wednesday night into Thursday morning when winds increase to 20-30 kts. Seas will be 3-5 ft Monday, and then increase to 6-10 ft Tuesday. Seas then subside slightly to 5-8 ft on Wednesday through most of Thursday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for AMZ152-154.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . RF/CB SHORT TERM . RF LONG TERM . SGK AVIATION . RF/SGK MARINE . RF/SGK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41064 30 mi44 min WNW 9.7 G 14 56°F 67°F1020.1 hPa
41159 30 mi52 min 66°F5 ft
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 30 mi58 min WSW 7 G 8.9 52°F 55°F1020.1 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 37 mi52 min W 9.9 G 11 54°F 1020.2 hPa (+2.8)50°F
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 40 mi58 min W 5.1 G 6 53°F 55°F1020 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 41 mi44 min WNW 7.8 G 12 51°F 56°F1020.5 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 41 mi42 min 56°F3 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 42 mi44 min W 9.7 G 14 54°F 66°F1020.4 hPa
WLON7 46 mi58 min 53°F 53°F1020.7 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC12 mi1.9 hrsW 610.00 miFair49°F42°F77%1019.8 hPa
MCAS New River, NC14 mi56 minW 610.00 miFair52°F42°F69%1020.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNJM

Wind History from NJM (wind in knots)
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W6W6W5W4W3W3SW3SW4CalmW6W7
1 day agoN7N8NE8N6N9N9E4NE7N5CalmCalmE7E7E6E4S7SW7SW10SW10W10W5W7SW5W5
2 days agoNE17
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NE7NE9N7NE10NE8NE6NE8NE7NE8NE6NE5NE5NE7NE8NE8NE7NE9N6

Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:10 AM EST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:36 AM EST     3.55 feet High Tide
Sun -- 10:12 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:06 PM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:00 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:38 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:06 PM EST     2.79 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.50.70.1-0.100.51.32.233.53.53.12.41.60.80.1-0.100.51.322.62.82.6

Tide / Current Tables for Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
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Bogue Inlet
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:08 AM EST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:33 AM EST     2.63 feet High Tide
Sun -- 10:11 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:04 PM EST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:58 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:37 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:03 PM EST     2.07 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.50.1-0.1-00.411.72.22.62.62.31.81.10.50.1-0.100.40.91.51.92.11.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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