Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Swansboro, NC
April 18, 2024 5:02 AM EDT (09:02 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:31 AM Sunset 7:45 PM Moonrise 2:03 PM Moonset 3:09 AM |
AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 353 Am Edt Thu Apr 18 2024
Today - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Fri - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Fri night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Sat - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop after midnight. A chance of showers.
Sun - NE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers.
Mon - NE winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to choppy. Showers, mainly in the morning.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ100 353 Am Edt Thu Apr 18 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - Weak disturbance brings low chances for light showers early this morning. Another weak cold front crosses the region by the end of the work week before another stronger cold front impacts the area next weekend.
Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 180542 AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 142 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
Shortwave and attendant cold front bringing low chances of light rain tonight. Another weak cold front cross the region by the end of the work week before another stronger cold front impacts the area next weekend.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
As of 735 PM Wednesday...Southerly WAA continues, although winds have diminished a bit at the time of this update. Radar imagery would suggest rain reaching the ground for NOBX, but dry low levels is evaporating the drops before they can reach the ground. This is supported by a lack of measurable precip at KMQI and K7W6. CAMs suggest highest chance of rainfall ahead of a shortwave tonight will be for areas north of hwy 264. With virga likely eating away at the stubborn dry layer for NE portions of the CWA, this region is best primed for precip reaching the ground.
Previous Discussion
As of 1530 Wednesday
Warm front has lifted N of the FA leading to Serly WAA. Have lowered Highs a degree or two for this afternoon due to cloud coverage. Upper front and attendant shortwave will approach the region tonight.
CAMs point to a broken band of precipitation crossing the FA just after midnight ahead of the s/w, but confidence is low any of this will reach the ground especially west of Highway 17 where dry air will remain stubbornly entrenched. Modestly better risk of rainfall will be along the coast where moisture profiles are less hostile. Still, the odds of precipitation are low - no higher than Chc PoPs in any area. Persistent cloud cover and steady southwesterly winds keep temperatures elevated with overnight lows in the mid 60s.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
As of 800 PM Wednesday...No major changes with this update, as previous forecast is still trending well.
Previous Discussion
As of 1530 Wednesday
SFC low sliding off the MidAtlantic coast will usher a weakening front through the NEern half of the FA while flow aloft becomes more downsloping NWerly in the wake of the shortwave trough axis pushing offshore. Werly background winds 10G15kt keeps seabreeze pinned along the Crystal Coast; Nern sea/sound/river breezes showing more penetration inland, aided by the front moving through at the same time. Highest PoPs in the afternoon will be centered over the convergence zone of the Nern sound/river breezes and the front which could be enough to spark some upward motion, but the column is expected to be too dry for any meaningful rainfall. Regardless, can plan on sunny skies for most with clouds developing along the pinned Crystal Coast seabreeze and the boundaries in the N with a broader diurnal Cu field developing inland later. Mostly sunny through the day leads to MaxTs in the upper 80s inland, low to mid 70s beaches.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 230 PM Wednesday...
A fairly active pattern is on tap this week into early next week with multiple frontal passages impacting the area.
Thursday night through Friday night...Upper ridging will build back over the area late Thursday, with the axis cresting over the area early Friday with dry conditions prevailing. Another dampening mid level shortwave and attendant cold front is progged to push across the area late Friday and Friday night, which may bring isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region. Most guidance keeps the best overlap of shear and instability to the west of ENC, but we'll have to monitor trends in guidance as there is a non-zero risk of some stronger afternoon storms west of HWY 17.
Temps will remain above avg across the Coastal Plain with highs Thursday generally in the mid to upper 80s inland and 70s along the coast. On Friday, E to NE onshore flow will bring cooler conditions along the coast, especially across the OBX where mid to upper 60s will prevail, but well inland highs expected in the mid 80s with a few upper 80s possible.
Saturday through Tuesday...Broad cyclonic flow prevails over the Eastern CONUS over the weekend and into early next week. A weakening cold front will drop into the area Saturday and stall just off the coast Saturday night. The timing of the front during the day Saturday will need to be monitored, as some of the 12z guidance today has come in slower with the front, which may allow more heating/destabilization to occur across southern sections of ENC.
Should this slower trend hold, we'll have to watch for a strong to severe thunderstorm risk.
Additional shortwave energy moving through the flow aloft will bring better forcing across the area with sfc low pressure developing along the offshore front, which is progged to pass off the OBX Sunday night and push the cold front farther offshore on Monday as high pressure builds in from the west through Tuesday. Highs Saturday will be a few degrees cooler inland with highs around 75-80 with mid 60s to mid 70s along the coast. Saturday normal inland with highs in the low to mid 80s inland and 70s along the coast. A cooler airmass builds in behind the front which, along with clouds and showers, will keep temps several degrees below normal with highs in the 60s Sunday and Monday. Temps are expected to warm back to near normal for Tuesday.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 06Z Fri/...
As of 140 AM Thu...VFR conditions prevail over the area as mid- level shortwave passes overhead. Radar imagery shows very light returns aloft, but persistent dry sub-cloud layer is resulting in little more than widespread virga. A few CAMs this morning remain insistent on a narrow band of precip developing the immediate coast just before dawn, and retained a mention of showers for OAJ and EWN.
Skies rapidly clear during the day as winds veer west to west- northwest with a few gusts to 15 kt possible over the inner coastal plain in the afternoon. By tonight, a weakening backdoor cold front will push across the area from the northeast as a weak offshore low drifts off the mid-Atlantic coast. The initial passage will bring a wind shift out of the east, but lower cigs are likely to gradually build over terminals after 06z.
LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 430 AM Wednesday...Pred VFR expected through the long term although there will be an opportunity for brief periods of sub- VFR in isolated showers late Friday/Friday night and again late Saturday as a series of mid level shortwaves and attendant cold fronts traverse the area. Low pressure passes along the offshore front on Sunday bringing the best chance of widespread rain and sub-VFR conditions across rtes.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /Tonight/...
As of 1545 Wednesday...Benign boating conditions continue this afternoon as warm front lifted N through area waters earlier today. Regional observations show seas of 3-4 feet with predominantly S to SWerly 10-15kt. Several of the high-res models continue to suggest SCA conditions developing offshore overnight. The less aggressive guidance still shows gusts up to 20+ kt tonight into Thursday morning. Considering how poorly the model suites resolved the winds near the front yesterday, have erred on the side of caution and went with SCAs for Central and Sern coastal waters as well as PamSound overnight.Seas will remain steady at 3-4 feet through the day, building slightly to 3-5 feet with 6 ft possible over far outer waters overnight with the stronger winds.
LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 445 AM Wednesday...An active pattern will prevail in the long term with a series of mid level systems and weakening cold fronts move into the waters but conditions are expected to remain below SCA criteria until late in the weekend. SW winds around 10-20 kt on Thursday will become NE behind a cold front pushing through Thursday night into Friday. Variable winds around 10 kt or less Friday night becomes Nly around 10-15 kt on Saturday as another cold front drops into the area and stalls offshore. Low pressure will develop along the front Sunday and pass off the OBX Sunday night with NE winds around 15-25 kt.
Seas will generally be 2-4 ft, occasionally getting to 5 ft across the outer waters through most of the period but will build to 4-7 ft Sunday night.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for AMZ135.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ152- 154.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for AMZ156- 158.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 142 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
Shortwave and attendant cold front bringing low chances of light rain tonight. Another weak cold front cross the region by the end of the work week before another stronger cold front impacts the area next weekend.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
As of 735 PM Wednesday...Southerly WAA continues, although winds have diminished a bit at the time of this update. Radar imagery would suggest rain reaching the ground for NOBX, but dry low levels is evaporating the drops before they can reach the ground. This is supported by a lack of measurable precip at KMQI and K7W6. CAMs suggest highest chance of rainfall ahead of a shortwave tonight will be for areas north of hwy 264. With virga likely eating away at the stubborn dry layer for NE portions of the CWA, this region is best primed for precip reaching the ground.
Previous Discussion
As of 1530 Wednesday
Warm front has lifted N of the FA leading to Serly WAA. Have lowered Highs a degree or two for this afternoon due to cloud coverage. Upper front and attendant shortwave will approach the region tonight.
CAMs point to a broken band of precipitation crossing the FA just after midnight ahead of the s/w, but confidence is low any of this will reach the ground especially west of Highway 17 where dry air will remain stubbornly entrenched. Modestly better risk of rainfall will be along the coast where moisture profiles are less hostile. Still, the odds of precipitation are low - no higher than Chc PoPs in any area. Persistent cloud cover and steady southwesterly winds keep temperatures elevated with overnight lows in the mid 60s.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
As of 800 PM Wednesday...No major changes with this update, as previous forecast is still trending well.
Previous Discussion
As of 1530 Wednesday
SFC low sliding off the MidAtlantic coast will usher a weakening front through the NEern half of the FA while flow aloft becomes more downsloping NWerly in the wake of the shortwave trough axis pushing offshore. Werly background winds 10G15kt keeps seabreeze pinned along the Crystal Coast; Nern sea/sound/river breezes showing more penetration inland, aided by the front moving through at the same time. Highest PoPs in the afternoon will be centered over the convergence zone of the Nern sound/river breezes and the front which could be enough to spark some upward motion, but the column is expected to be too dry for any meaningful rainfall. Regardless, can plan on sunny skies for most with clouds developing along the pinned Crystal Coast seabreeze and the boundaries in the N with a broader diurnal Cu field developing inland later. Mostly sunny through the day leads to MaxTs in the upper 80s inland, low to mid 70s beaches.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 230 PM Wednesday...
A fairly active pattern is on tap this week into early next week with multiple frontal passages impacting the area.
Thursday night through Friday night...Upper ridging will build back over the area late Thursday, with the axis cresting over the area early Friday with dry conditions prevailing. Another dampening mid level shortwave and attendant cold front is progged to push across the area late Friday and Friday night, which may bring isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region. Most guidance keeps the best overlap of shear and instability to the west of ENC, but we'll have to monitor trends in guidance as there is a non-zero risk of some stronger afternoon storms west of HWY 17.
Temps will remain above avg across the Coastal Plain with highs Thursday generally in the mid to upper 80s inland and 70s along the coast. On Friday, E to NE onshore flow will bring cooler conditions along the coast, especially across the OBX where mid to upper 60s will prevail, but well inland highs expected in the mid 80s with a few upper 80s possible.
Saturday through Tuesday...Broad cyclonic flow prevails over the Eastern CONUS over the weekend and into early next week. A weakening cold front will drop into the area Saturday and stall just off the coast Saturday night. The timing of the front during the day Saturday will need to be monitored, as some of the 12z guidance today has come in slower with the front, which may allow more heating/destabilization to occur across southern sections of ENC.
Should this slower trend hold, we'll have to watch for a strong to severe thunderstorm risk.
Additional shortwave energy moving through the flow aloft will bring better forcing across the area with sfc low pressure developing along the offshore front, which is progged to pass off the OBX Sunday night and push the cold front farther offshore on Monday as high pressure builds in from the west through Tuesday. Highs Saturday will be a few degrees cooler inland with highs around 75-80 with mid 60s to mid 70s along the coast. Saturday normal inland with highs in the low to mid 80s inland and 70s along the coast. A cooler airmass builds in behind the front which, along with clouds and showers, will keep temps several degrees below normal with highs in the 60s Sunday and Monday. Temps are expected to warm back to near normal for Tuesday.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 06Z Fri/...
As of 140 AM Thu...VFR conditions prevail over the area as mid- level shortwave passes overhead. Radar imagery shows very light returns aloft, but persistent dry sub-cloud layer is resulting in little more than widespread virga. A few CAMs this morning remain insistent on a narrow band of precip developing the immediate coast just before dawn, and retained a mention of showers for OAJ and EWN.
Skies rapidly clear during the day as winds veer west to west- northwest with a few gusts to 15 kt possible over the inner coastal plain in the afternoon. By tonight, a weakening backdoor cold front will push across the area from the northeast as a weak offshore low drifts off the mid-Atlantic coast. The initial passage will bring a wind shift out of the east, but lower cigs are likely to gradually build over terminals after 06z.
LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 430 AM Wednesday...Pred VFR expected through the long term although there will be an opportunity for brief periods of sub- VFR in isolated showers late Friday/Friday night and again late Saturday as a series of mid level shortwaves and attendant cold fronts traverse the area. Low pressure passes along the offshore front on Sunday bringing the best chance of widespread rain and sub-VFR conditions across rtes.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /Tonight/...
As of 1545 Wednesday...Benign boating conditions continue this afternoon as warm front lifted N through area waters earlier today. Regional observations show seas of 3-4 feet with predominantly S to SWerly 10-15kt. Several of the high-res models continue to suggest SCA conditions developing offshore overnight. The less aggressive guidance still shows gusts up to 20+ kt tonight into Thursday morning. Considering how poorly the model suites resolved the winds near the front yesterday, have erred on the side of caution and went with SCAs for Central and Sern coastal waters as well as PamSound overnight.Seas will remain steady at 3-4 feet through the day, building slightly to 3-5 feet with 6 ft possible over far outer waters overnight with the stronger winds.
LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 445 AM Wednesday...An active pattern will prevail in the long term with a series of mid level systems and weakening cold fronts move into the waters but conditions are expected to remain below SCA criteria until late in the weekend. SW winds around 10-20 kt on Thursday will become NE behind a cold front pushing through Thursday night into Friday. Variable winds around 10 kt or less Friday night becomes Nly around 10-15 kt on Saturday as another cold front drops into the area and stalls offshore. Low pressure will develop along the front Sunday and pass off the OBX Sunday night with NE winds around 15-25 kt.
Seas will generally be 2-4 ft, occasionally getting to 5 ft across the outer waters through most of the period but will build to 4-7 ft Sunday night.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for AMZ135.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ152- 154.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for AMZ156- 158.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 41064 | 30 mi | 54 min | SW 12G | 67°F | 65°F | 30.04 | 65°F | |
| 41159 | 30 mi | 66 min | 65°F | 4 ft | ||||
| BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC | 30 mi | 62 min | WSW 7G | 66°F | 67°F | 30.00 | ||
| CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC | 37 mi | 62 min | SW 11G | 66°F | 30.04 | |||
| JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC | 40 mi | 62 min | SW 13G | 70°F | 64°F | 30.02 | ||
| 41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC | 41 mi | 114 min | SW 14G | 68°F | 65°F | 30.03 | 64°F | |
| 41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC | 41 mi | 66 min | 65°F | 3 ft | ||||
| 41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC | 42 mi | 54 min | SW 12G | 67°F | 65°F | 30.05 | 64°F | |
| MBNN7 | 43 mi | 62 min | W 8.9G | 70°F | 30.01 | 66°F | ||
| WLON7 | 46 mi | 62 min | 69°F | 67°F | 30.01 | |||
| MBIN7 | 49 mi | 62 min | W 11G | 70°F | 30.01 | 66°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KNJM BOGUE FIELD MCALF,NC | 12 sm | 65 min | WSW 08 | 6 sm | Clear | Mist | 66°F | 64°F | 94% | 30.02 |
| KNCA NEW RIVER MCAS /H/ /MCCUTCHEON FLD/,NC | 14 sm | 66 min | WSW 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 66°F | 64°F | 94% | 30.01 |
New River Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:10 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 04:45 AM EDT 2.76 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:33 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 10:57 AM EDT 0.50 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:03 PM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 05:06 PM EDT 2.74 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:44 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 11:15 PM EDT 0.43 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:10 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 04:45 AM EDT 2.76 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:33 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 10:57 AM EDT 0.50 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:03 PM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 05:06 PM EDT 2.74 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:44 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 11:15 PM EDT 0.43 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
New River Inlet, North Carolina, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.9 |
| 1 am |
| 1.4 |
| 2 am |
| 1.9 |
| 3 am |
| 2.4 |
| 4 am |
| 2.7 |
| 5 am |
| 2.8 |
| 6 am |
| 2.6 |
| 7 am |
| 2.1 |
| 8 am |
| 1.6 |
| 9 am |
| 1 |
| 10 am |
| 0.6 |
| 11 am |
| 0.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 5 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.4 |
Bogue Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:09 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 04:42 AM EDT 2.05 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:32 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 10:55 AM EDT 0.46 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:02 PM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 05:03 PM EDT 2.03 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:43 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 11:13 PM EDT 0.39 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:09 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 04:42 AM EDT 2.05 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:32 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 10:55 AM EDT 0.46 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:02 PM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 05:03 PM EDT 2.03 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:43 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 11:13 PM EDT 0.39 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Bogue Inlet, North Carolina, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.7 |
| 1 am |
| 1.1 |
| 2 am |
| 1.5 |
| 3 am |
| 1.8 |
| 4 am |
| 2 |
| 5 am |
| 2 |
| 6 am |
| 1.9 |
| 7 am |
| 1.6 |
| 8 am |
| 1.2 |
| 9 am |
| 0.8 |
| 10 am |
| 0.6 |
| 11 am |
| 0.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 5 pm |
| 2 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.4 |
Morehead City, NC,
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