Cedar Point, NC Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cedar Point, NC

June 22, 2024 5:33 AM EDT (09:33 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:53 AM   Sunset 8:26 PM
Moonrise 8:35 PM   Moonset 5:04 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 329 Am Edt Sat Jun 22 2024

Today - SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat, increasing to a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms this morning, then a slight chance of showers early this afternoon.

Tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 7 seconds and S 2 ft at 4 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms after midnight.

Sun - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and tstms.

Sun night - SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Wave detail: se 6 ft at 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. A chance of showers and tstms.

Mon - SW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Wave detail: sw 6 ft at 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to choppy in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms.

Mon night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 5 ft at 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms.

Tue - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning.

Tue night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop after midnight.

Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon.

Wed night - SW winds around 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 329 Am Edt Sat Jun 22 2024

Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - High pressure shifts offshore today, with troughing developing in the lee of the appalachians. A front approaches on Monday, with another front affecting the region on Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cedar Point, NC
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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 220827 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 427 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure shifts offshore today, with troughing developing in the lee of the Appalachians. A cold front will move through the area Monday into Tuesday, with another front affecting the region on Thursday into Friday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 200 AM Saturday...

- Increasing heat and humidity today

Early this morning, satellite imagery very nicely depicts a weak area of low pressure moving ashore just north of Jacksonville, FL. North of that low, a broad area of deep, quality moisture has expanded inland from the Atlantic into coastal areas of the Southeast U.S. Based on satellite imagery, the northern extent of that moisture shield reaches into southern sections of ENC. Daytime heating of this moist airmass appears supportive of "airmass" showers, but a lack of appreciable forcing should tend to keep the coverage isolated, and should help keep the risk of deeper convection low. Guidance suggests the area of deeper moisture won't shift much today, which suggests the greatest chance of showers will be along the coast from Hatteras south through the Crystal Coast, and for our southwestern coastal plain counties (Duplin and Onslow Counties).

The bigger story today will be the start of an extended period of hot and humid weather. While it is summer in ENC, this period of heat and humidity comes on the heels of several days of less humid, and not as hot, conditions. There's still some residual dry air just above the surface, so any mixing today may tend to keep dewpoints in the upper 60s for most of the coastal plain.
While it will be hot, dewpoints in the 60s would tend to keep heat indices around 100 degrees. If less mixing occurs, dewpoints would hold in the 70s, and heat indices could top out as high as 105 degrees. Because of the marginal nature of the heat indices, the plan for now is to hold off on any heat headlines.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/
As of 200 AM Saturday...

- Patchy fog possible tonight (20-40% chance)

A modest increase in southerly winds aloft should help to pull the plume of better quality moisture north through all of ENC tonight. While forcing will be lacking, any area of moisture convergence could support a few showers. In general, though, I expect the main focus for showers to shift back offshore and near the coast. Where skies clear out, light winds and a moist boundary layer appear supportive of patchy fog (similar to the past couple of nights). Widespread, impactful fog is not expected, though.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 4 AM Sat...An extended period of heat and humidity is expected for Eastern NC this week with highs reaching the mid to upper 90s, and heat indices topping 100 degrees almost every afternoon, and exceeding 105 degrees at times. There will also be some decent chances (40-50%) for showers and thunderstorms Monday and Thursday/Thursday night as two weak fronts move into the area.

Sunday and Monday...High pressure remains offshore Sunday, but the gradient will tighten as a low pressure system passes by to the north over New England. Winds will increase through the day and gust to 20-25 mph in the afternoon, and potentially as high as 30 mph along the coast. Increasing low level thicknesses will lead to highs topping out in the mid 90s inland and the upper 80s to low 90s along the coast. When combined with the humidity, heat indices will peak at 100-105 degrees in the afternoon.
Within the hot and humid airmass, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop, mostly driven by the sea breeze, but not expecting anything substantial.

A cold front will move south into the area Sunday night, and then slowly push through the area Monday into Monday night. Deep moisture will increase ahead of this feature overnight Sunday and bring better chances for rain to Eastern NC. The best chances will be along the coast and Outer Banks as showers and thunderstorms form across the coastal waters and push onshore.
There remains lower confidence on the evolution of showers and thunderstorms Monday ahead of the front, with mixed solutions from forecast guidance. Will maintain a 40-50% precip outlook, but note the potential for higher rain chances for at least a portion of the day Monday.

A hot and humid airmass will persist across the area, but the somewhat unknown extent of shower and cloud coverage casts some doubt on how hot it will get Monday afternoon. With that in mind there is again potential for highs to reach the mid 90s inland, and the low 90s along the coast, with heat indices peaking 100-105 degrees again.

Tuesday through Friday...Behind the weak cold front, slightly cooler and drier high pressure will temporarily build in Tuesday, especially along the coast where onshore flow will keep temps mostly in the 80s. Farther inland the maritime flow will moderate, and expect temps here to again climb into the low to mid 90s. A few isolated sea breeze showers and thunderstorms will possible as well.

Southerly flow quickly rebuilds Wednesday with low level thicknesses rising as well. This will likely end up being the hottest day of the week as temps soar into the mid to upper 90s inland, and low 90s along the coast. Thankfully the drier airmass will take time to moisten and humidity levels will be relatively moderate, leading to heat indices "only" rising into the low 100s to around 105.

Increasing moisture on Thursday ahead of the next weak cold front will bring higher humidities, but also the threat of scattered to potentially numerous showers and thunderstorms (40-50% chance). Temperatures will again climb into the 90s, but will increasing cloud cover expected, afternoon highs will likely top out in the low to mid 90s across the area. However increasing humidity will bring heat indices up to 100-105 degrees in the afternoon.

The cold front may stall across southern NC Friday and lead to somewhat unsettled conditions again. Either way slightly cooler temps are likely with heat indices remaining below 100 degrees.

AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 06z Sunday/...
As of 130 AM Saturday...

- IFR/MVFR VIS likely overnight (60-80% chance)

- Daytime SHRA risk Saturday (10-30% chance)

In the very near-term (ie. through 12z Saturday), the main forecast challenge will be the MIFG/BR/FG potential. Recent satellite imagery shows some low clouds or fog attempting to develop, but thus far, nothing appears widespread. Meanwhile, surface obs have reported IFR, or lower, conditions at times.
Based on webcams and satellite, it appears the reduced VIS is due to shallow fog (MIFG). Through the night, however, it's possible that some depth to the fog could be realized, and we'll be closely monitoring this in case a more impactful period of FG develops. For now, I've leaned towards more of a MIFG type of scenario. During the day Saturday, heating of a moist airmass will probably allow isolated to widely scattered SHRA to develop (similar to yesterday). The coverage is expected to be too minimal for a mention in the TAFs. However, reduced VIS will be a risk with any SHRA that develops. The TSRA risk isn't zero today, but Saturday's setup isn't all that favorable for TSRA.
By Saturday evening, the SHRA risk looks to shift back offshore.
Similar to the next few hours, Saturday night looks to support another round of shallow fog.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 4 AM Sat...Generally VFR conditions should exist outside of convection this week which will be most widespread Monday through Tuesday morning. Strong SW winds develop Sunday with winds gusting 20-30 mph.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 200 AM Saturday...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible through tonight (20- 40% chance)

Satellite imagery this morning reveals 2 notable features. One is a weak area of low pressure currently moving ashore just north of Jacksonville, FL. The other feature is an upper level low spinning about 80-100 miles off the ENC coastline. The FL/GA low may lift slowly north along the coast today, but shouldn't have a big impact locally. The upper level low, meanwhile, has had an area of showers and thunderstorms associated with it, and this will impact portions of the coastal waters this morning, and potentially longer. Otherwise, southerly winds will be on the lighter side through tonight (5-15kt), and seas will hold around 2-4 ft.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 4 AM Sat...Small craft conditions are looking likely to develop Sunday afternoon as the gradient increases ahead of a cold front. Winds will likely be SW 20-25 kts, with gusts to 30 kts from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning with seas rising to 5-7 ft. Winds will gradually decrease Monday as the front moves into the waters, but some 25 kt winds may continue across the southern waters south of Cape Hatteras. The front will move through the waters Monday night with winds turning to the N at 5-10 kts behind it. Expect winds to be NE 5-15 kts Tuesday, and then SE at 5-15 kts Wednesday. Seas will subside to 3-5 ft by Monday evening, and then will become mostly 2-3 ft Tuesday and Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER
As of 200 AM Saturday...

- Elevated fire concerns possible Sunday

Recent RAWS observations suggest fine fuel moistures have improved some, likely due to some shower activity the past 24 hours, and increasing ambient moisture off the Atlantic. This combined with relatively light winds today should keep fire concerns low. For any ongoing fires, the main concern today will be a wind shift with the development, and passage, of the seabreeze. Southerly winds increase on Sunday, becoming sustained at 10-20 mph. RH will continue to increase, and is forecast to only bottom out in the 40s and 50s. While not a typical fire danger type of day, the breezy conditions and drier fine fuels is noteworthy, especially for any fire that manages to develop, or any ongoing fires. Wetting rainfall is still possible on Monday and again Thursday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-196- 199-203>205.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 22 mi45 min0G1 78°F 81°F30.13
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 30 mi33 minN 1G1.9 78°F 30.15
41159 32 mi37 min 80°F3 ft
41064 33 mi85 minSW 5.8G7.8 80°F 80°F30.1478°F
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 49 mi85 minS 5.8G9.7 80°F 80°F30.1575°F
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 49 mi85 minS 3.9G5.8 79°F 79°F30.1376°F
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 49 mi37 min 79°F3 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 49 mi45 minS 5.1G6 79°F 81°F30.12


Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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Wind History graph: NJM
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Tide / Current for Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
   
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Bogue Inlet
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Sat -- 02:40 AM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:34 AM EDT     2.08 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:24 PM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:52 PM EDT     2.71 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:34 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Bogue Inlet, North Carolina, Tide feet
12
am
1
1
am
0.5
2
am
0.1
3
am
0.1
4
am
0.3
5
am
0.8
6
am
1.3
7
am
1.8
8
am
2
9
am
2
10
am
1.8
11
am
1.3
12
pm
0.8
1
pm
0.3
2
pm
0.1
3
pm
0.1
4
pm
0.4
5
pm
1
6
pm
1.6
7
pm
2.2
8
pm
2.6
9
pm
2.7
10
pm
2.5
11
pm
2.1


Tide / Current for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
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Sat -- 02:42 AM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:37 AM EDT     2.80 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:26 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:55 PM EDT     3.66 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:35 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

New River Inlet, North Carolina, Tide feet
12
am
1.4
1
am
0.6
2
am
0.2
3
am
0.1
4
am
0.4
5
am
1
6
am
1.7
7
am
2.3
8
am
2.7
9
am
2.8
10
am
2.4
11
am
1.8
12
pm
1.1
1
pm
0.5
2
pm
0.1
3
pm
0.1
4
pm
0.6
5
pm
1.3
6
pm
2.1
7
pm
2.9
8
pm
3.5
9
pm
3.7
10
pm
3.4
11
pm
2.8


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Morehead City, NC,




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