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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 625 Am Est Wed Nov 29 2023
Today..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late this morning and early afternoon, then becoming W late. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 4 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop late this morning and early afternoon, then diminishing to flat late.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop after midnight.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, diminishing to flat in the afternoon.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Fri..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop after midnight. A chance of showers.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers.

AMZ100 625 Am Est Wed Nov 29 2023
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters.. Strong high pressure will build in from the south and west through late week. A series of storm systems will then impact the area Friday into early next week.

FXUS62 KMHX 291133 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 633 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

SYNOPSIS
Strong high pressure will continue to build in from the south and west through late week. A series of storm systems will then impact the area Friday into early next week.

NEAR TERM /TODAY/
As of 635 AM Wed...Latest analysis shows 1026mb high pressure centered over TN/KY, while secondary cold front continues to push well off the Carolina coast. High pressure will continue to build into eastern NC from the southwest. Main story today will continue to be the cold, dry airmass resulting in another day with temps well below climo (15-20 deg below). Near record low temps expected early this morning (see section below for details). Despite plenty of sunshine, low level thickness values and 850mb temps -2 to -4C support highs in the 40s.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 2 AM Wed...High pressure will continue to build in overnight, making for another quiet, cold night. Strong radiational cooling expected, so trended again on the colder side of guidance, with lows in the low/mid 20s inland and low/mid 30s for the Outer Banks. May see increasing high clouds early Thu morning, with passing shortwave, which could potentially limit cooling slightly.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 245 AM Wednesday...High pressure slides offshore late in the week with a more active pattern expected to develop through the weekend.

Temps moderate to the mid to upper 50s on Thursday as the sfc high pressure begins to slide offshore and southerly flow develops across the area. The southern stream jet becomes dominant across the southern CONUS and a series of systems lifts across the area Friday through early next week. Guidance still not in the best agreement with timing, strength and available moisture with these systems so continue to limit PoPs to chance given the differences. Temps are expected to be above normal through Monday. A northern stream shortwave digs across the Mid West and across the mid-Atlantic early next week pushing deeper moisture offshore with cool high pressure building in from the west into mid week.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 635 AM Wed...Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. Mostly clear skies and light winds today with increasing high clouds late tonight into Thu morning.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...High pressure slides offshore Thursday with VFR conditions continuing. An active pattern develops across the area Friday through the weekend with periods of showers bringing occasional sub-VFR conditions.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 635 AM Wed...Latest obs show NNW winds 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt and seas 2-5 ft, highest north of Ocracoke.
Secondary front will continue to push offshore early this morning as high pressure builds in from the WSW, with winds quickly diminishing to 5-15 kt across the waters by mid morning.
Winds will grad back through the day becoming more W-NW this afternoon and tonight. Seas will subside to 2-3 ft by this afternoon with offshore flow. May see a brief W/NW surge 10-20 kt tonight with passing shortwave, and seas 2-4 ft.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 315 AM Wednesday...High pressure slides offshore Thursday with a series of low pressure systems impacting the area late in the week and this weekend.

Winds diminish to 5-10 kt Thursday while backing to SW with seas around 1-3 ft as the high moves offshore. A strong low pressure system will lift into the Ohio River Valley Friday and Friday night which will serve to tighten pressure gradients across the region and will see Sly winds increase to 15-20+ kt with seas building to 3-6 ft. SCA conditions are most probable across the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet. An active pattern continues through the weekend with another low pressure area moving across the region late Saturday into Sunday but at this time guidance is keeping conditions below SCA criteria.

FIRE WEATHER
As of 2 AM Wed...Low RH values today. Very dry airmass will yield min RH values near 25% inland and 30-35% along the coast during peak mixing this afternoon. Much lighter winds expected today, generally 10 mph or less.

CLIMATE
Record Low temps for 11/29 (Wednesday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 23/1967 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 29/2014 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville 17/1930 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 24/2002 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 16/1901 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 24/2002 (KNCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Bogue Inlet
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Wed -- 02:09 AM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:41 AM EST     2.67 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:20 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 03:09 PM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:57 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:49 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:00 PM EST     2.01 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bogue Inlet, North Carolina, Tide feet

New River Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:11 AM EST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:44 AM EST     3.60 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:20 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 03:11 PM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:59 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:50 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:03 PM EST     2.70 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

New River Inlet, North Carolina, Tide feet

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Morehead City, NC,