Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pine Knoll Shores, NC

KEY MESSAGES
1) Cooler, drier, and more seasonable behind the frontal passage this weekend.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Seasonably dry and temperature airmass (perhaps a couple degrees below normal) will be ushered in behind this morning's cold front as it pushes further offshore. In the near term, low stratus will continue to plague eastern NC as moisture remains pooled under the frontal inversion. Stronger surge of dry air, combined with mixing after daybreak, should usher in sunny skies. The high will become the dominant weather feature for the weekend and much of next week. Cooler temperatures with highs in the 60s prevail today and tomorrow before a slight warm-up next week into the low 70s, although humidity will remain low. We will have to watch for the risk of some frost over the upcoming nights, particularly tonight and Mon night as lows dip towards the upper 30s and skies remain clear and winds light. Will defer to day shift to determine whether advisories are needed.

Beyond mid-week most guidance depicts an increasingly unsettled pattern as complex mid-level low deepens over the eastern CONUS.
There is at least some signal for a developing low off our coast beyond Wednesday, although its evolution and timing remain highly uncertain.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Forecast confidence is moderate over the next 6 hours and high through 00z Sunday.

Main cold front is currently working its way across eastern NC with waning band of precipitation primarily affecting areas east of a line from OCW-EWN-NJM. Thunder threat will be confined southeast of EWN, but overall severe threat appears to be done with the main hazard being an isolated gust up to around 25-30 kt.

Beyond this threat, question remains on how long post-frontal stratus will hang around before dry air scours it out. REFS probabilities show rapidly declining CIGs through 06z, but LAMP hangs on to at least MVFR until around sunrise. Normally would give more credence towards the LAMP as this is more in line with typical post-frontal patterns here, but upstream obs do show a strong clearing trend. Therefore, leaned forecast towards a faster erosion of sub-VFR cigs and improvement to VFR overnight.

Only some cirri to contend with tomorrow as high pressure takes control with NW winds up to 10 kt.

Outlook: An extended period of VFR conditions is expected much drier airmass remains over the region.

MARINE
Cold front is making its way across area waters this hour with winds quickly turning northwesterly and increasing to 10-20 kt at times. A few infrequent gusts to 25 kt are possible with a secondary surge of NW winds later this morning, especially north of Cape Hatteras, but this is not expected to be prominent enough to warrant SCA headlines. Seas will persist at around 3-5 ft nearshore and 4-6 ft offshore.

Behind the front, high pressure will build in with weakening winds and therefore slowly subsiding seas.

Outlook (Sunday through Wednesday): High builds in this weekend into next week, keeping winds below 20 kts and skies rain-free.
Despite the decrease in winds, elevated seas may linger through the weekend for 20-60nm zones at around 4-6 feet, and an isolated 6 foot wave is possible just within 20nm primarily for waters in Raleigh Bay.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.