Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pine Knoll Shores, NC

KEY MESSAGES
1) Above to well above normal temperatures will prevail through the entire week with the potential for record breaking temperatures each day through Saturday.

2) Worsening drought and fire weather conditions anticipated over much of the upcoming week, with the next meaningful chance of rain not until Sunday

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Persistent upper level ridging and a warm southwest low-level flow regime will continue to strongly favor well above normal temperatures through the remainder of the week. Each day will carry at least some potential for record- tying or record-breaking temperatures. For a little context, one of our forecast aids (the ECMWF's Extreme Forecast Index -or- EFI) continues to show a very strong signal for a stretch of highly anomalous temperatures, with a focus from Wednesday through Saturday. While above normal temperatures seem to be a foregone conclusion, there may be some subtle, but important, features that could impact just how hot each day gets. One is cloudcover. The upper level ridge will flatten some today and tomorrow, which will allow convective debris clouds from the Plains to overspread the Carolinas. Like yesterday, that could hold temps down some, preventing them from reaching the full potential of the low-level thicknesses present. By Thursday, the ridge is forecast to amplify again, with more of a southwest flow aloft redeveloping. This suggests that the warmest day of the week may be Thursday if that southwest flow can divert high level clouds away from the area. Another potential caveat is a weak front that may try to edge close to the area on Friday.
Given the strength of the ridge, it's unlikely that this front gets this far south, but a small cluster of guidance suggests this may happen. If so, this could put a small dent in temps, and may even allow a very low risk of a few showers. This scenario appears unlikely, but is something we'll be monitoring in guidance through the week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Drought conditions are expected to persist through the foreseeable future with no rain in the forecast until Sunday. Even then, rainfall amounts on Sunday currently look to be less than a half an inch, which won't have much of an impact on the drought. The forecast area remains in a Severe Drought (D2), with some pockets of Extreme Drought (D3) emerging over the northern NC coastal plain. Precipitation deficits over the last 60 days range from 3-6 inches, which will only increase in the upcoming rain-free week. Growing vegetation and leaf out will only increase the strain on ground water in the coming weeks. While the forecast currently has conditions not meeting criteria for fire danger statements, the very dry conditions will continue to bring an elevated threat for wildfires. It is also worth noting that breezy afternoon/evening winds will be paired with relative humidities in the 30-40% range. Again, this is above Fire Danger Statement criteria, but given the increased sensitivities, it is worth a mention. The NCFS continues a statewide burn ban until further notice.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Apart from some very shallow mist at OAJ, VFR conditions ongoing across area terminals as high pressure sits over the western Atlantic and extends over much of the southeastern CONUS. Typical warm season pattern continues today with increasing southwesterly flow and diurnal cumulus fields developing by midday. Sea breeze will cross late afternoon into early evening ushering a brief period of gusty southerly winds up to 20 kt at times. Shortly after midnight, winds will return more southwesterly at around 5 kt. Like the past couple nights, if localized decoupling occurs some patchy shallow fog may develop around the hours of 10-12z Wed morning.

Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with a more summertime pattern persisting through the week. Stronger winds likely in the coming days with tightening thermal gradient, most likely felt in the afternoons and evenings.

MARINE
A pattern more typical of summer continues, with a daily chance of 20-25kt winds over waters favored in southwest flow where the thermal gradient is the strongest. This includes the Pamlico Sound and nearby rivers and sounds. The hottest days with the strongest thermal gradient may necessitate short-fused Small Craft Advisories, but it appears that today will not be one of those days.

For the coastal waters, seas of 2-4 ft will be common through mid- week. Seas may approach 5 ft at times late in the week, especially from Cape Hatteras south.

Outlook: A cold front is forecast to move through area waters on Sunday. Ahead of the front, there should be an increased risk of 25kt winds, with an even higher chance behind the front late Sunday into Monday. Of note, some of the stronger guidance suggests the potential for gale-force winds behind the front.
Stay tuned for updates on this frontal passage and the potential marine impacts late in the weekend into early next week.

CLIMATE
Record High temps for 4/14 (Tuesday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 89/1948 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 80/1994 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville 93/1922 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 80/1996 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 99/1930 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 88/1977 (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/15 (Wednesday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 94/1972 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 84/1922 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville 96/1922 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 80/1964 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 92/1941 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 93/2006 (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/16 (Thursday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 92/1972 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 78/1994 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville 92/1972 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 82/2006 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 92/2006 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 91/1972 (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/17 (Friday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 91/1976 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 83/2012 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville 92/1972 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 82/1976 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 91/1972 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 91/2006 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ196-204- 205.
MARINE...None.