Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pine Knoll Shores, NC

KEY MESSAGES
1) Above normal temperatures will prevail through the next week with the potential for record breaking temperatures next Tuesday through Friday.

2) Worsening drought and fire weather conditions anticipated over the next 7 days with no rainfall forecast.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Temps will be 5-10 degrees above normal today (reaching into the low to mid 80s along and south of Highway 70) ahead of a backdoor front that will push through mid to late afternoon. Albemarle Peninsula and northern OBX will not have as much time to warm, only reaching the 70s. The front will likely be dry with a dearth of moisture to work with, but a small minority of guidance suggests an isolated shower threat in the afternoon, mainly from the coastal plain westward where some modest instability will be present.

Temps will be around 5 degrees cooler Sunday with sfc high pressure to the north bringing easterly flow across the region, but still above normal away from the coast. The high the migrates off the Mid-Atlantic coast late Sunday and persists through the week while upper ridging builds over the Southeast bringing a significant warm up and a prolonged period of near record breaking temperatures. Temperatures inland are forecast in the upper 80s Tuesday and peak in the lower 90s Wednesday extending into Friday. Deterministic NBM looks reasonable when compared to low-level thickness analysis, but this also sits at or just below the 25th percentile of the probabilistic NBM. Thus, there is some room for forecast temps to trend higher over the coming days.

There remains some spread on whether a backdoor front on Friday will make it across the area, but given the strength of the ridge pattern recognition points to this boundary stalling before reaching ENC. Forecast highs for Friday have trended a couple degrees higher as more guidance shifts towards this scenario. Record highs will be challenged most days next week - see the CLIMATE section for details.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Worsening drought conditions are likely through the foreseeable future with no rain in the forecast through next week. The forecast area remains in a Severe Drought (D2), with some pockets of Extreme Drought (D3) emerging over the northern NC coastal plain. Precipitation deficits over the last 60 days range from 3-6 inches, which will only increase in the upcoming rain-free week. Growing vegetation and leaf out will only increase the strain on ground water in the coming weeks. While the forecast currently has conditions not meeting criteria for fire danger statements, the very dry conditions will continue to bring an elevated threat for wildfires. The NCFS continues a statewide burn ban until further notice.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR flight cats expected through the period. Light SWerly winds early with mostly SKC save for thin upper level clouds streaming overhead through the day. A backdoor front will push through the terminals late this morning and early afternoon, veering winds through the day; Nerly midday, Eerly in the evening. SCT clouds developing at or above FL050 associated with FROPA.

Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with a more summertime pattern taking shape Sunday into early next week.

MARINE
Regional observations show predominantly west to southwesterly winds this morning at 5-10 kt ahead of an approaching backdoor cold front currently migrating across VA this hour. Winds will remain westerly ahead of the front, quickly veering northeasterly to easterly late this afternoon into the evening hours. There is a signal for a brief but notable uptick in winds immediately behind the front with isolated gusts to 25 kt possible. This occurrence will be short lived and therefore new SCAs were not issued for soundside locations.

Offshore, seas remain elevated at 4-7 feet along and north of Cape Hatteras. Conditions will be slow to improve especially with the uptick of winds associated with the frontal passage, and therefore left SCAs here up through Sun morning.

Outlook: Largely benign boating conditions expected next week, although with a spring heatwave on the horizon strengthening thermal gradient winds could near 25 kt at times during the overnight hours and nudge seas near 6 feet.

CLIMATE
Record High temps for 4/14 (Tuesday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 89/1948 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 80/1994 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville 93/1922 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 80/1996 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 99/1930 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 88/1977 (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/15 (Wednesday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 94/1972 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 84/1922 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville 96/1922 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 80/1964 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 92/1941 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 93/2006 (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/16 (Thursday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 92/1972 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 78/1994 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville 92/1972 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 82/2006 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 92/2006 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 91/1972 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ150.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154.