Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pine Knoll Shores, NC

NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/
As of 935 PM Mon...

KEY MESSAGE:

- Cold Weather Advisory issued for "Feels Like" temperatures below 15 degrees tonight into early Wednesday

No significant changes needed to previous forecast for late eve update. Arctic high pressure becomes centered across the Mid Atlantic tonight bringing a very cold airmass, even for winter across all of eastern NC. Under clear skies, temps will drop into the mid to upper teens inland and low to mid 20s along the coast. A light breeze when combined with these temps will make it feel like it is around 7 to 15 degrees. Under these conditions, exposed skin will be susceptible to frost bite, and if not dressed properly for the extreme cold hypothermia will be possible. Because of the dangerous cold, a Cold Weather Advisory continues for all of the area from late this evening into early Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/
As of 315 PM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE:

- Cold Weather Advisory issued for "Feels Like" temperatures below 15 degrees in the morning

- Increasing clouds with snow developing late afternoon.

High pressure gradually weakens over the Mid Atlantic through the day as a shortwave trough pushes across the central CONUS.
The day will start out mainly clear, though coastal sections may have a bit more clouds, and very cold with temps in the teens inland to 20s coast. Clouds will increase through the morning becoming mostly cloudy during the afternoon as isentropic lift increases. The sub-cloud layer is initially very dry so it will take some time to saturate the layer and do not expect much precip until late, though occasional flurries will be possible in the afternoon. Model soundings showing thermal profiles below freezing throughout the layer so P-type will be snow. Temps will remain very cold with highs in the mid 30s inland to upper 30s along the coast.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Update: As of 430 PM Mon...Have inc snow amounts for Tue night, as 20/12Z meso model suite coming more into line with the ECM in higher snow amounts. It also appears mesoscale banding will be a concern with this system, driven by strong frontogenetic forcing and not so much a defined low pressure system offshore.
X-section analysis indicates strong omega in the DGZ, leading to efficient snow production. The question remains on where this banding will take shape, but best location at this time would be towards the coast, further removed from the drier air with the strong arctic high to the northwest. Issued winter storm watches and advisories, with the advisory for the coastal plain counties. General snow amounts in the watch will be 2-5" with locally higher amounts. This is in line with fcst from the EPS, which has been quite consistent run after run. Again, some areas may receive more if/where mesoscale banding is more intense.

Prev disc
As of 445 AM Monday

KEY MESSAGES:

- Confidence in wintry weather Tuesday and Wednesday is high, although forecast accumulations continue to come down. A second, icier event still looks possible on Thursday.

Tuesday night and Wednesday: The main focus remains on the winter weather risk across our region beginning late Tues and running through Wed morning. Upper level shortwave that will be the primary driver of this event is currently digging towards the Four Corners region early this morning and is forecast to translate east across the Gulf Coast tomorrow and Wednesday.

The past few shifts, we've outlined two scenarios of how this trough could evolve - a more positively-tiled and progressive through favoring a weaker and faster low, and a slower negative-tilt trough with implications for a more significant event. The 20/00z model suite is now sitting firmly in the weaker scenario, depicting a weak and faster low (or more accurately a train of weak waves) developing well to our south and racing along the southern periphery of a strong and dry Arctic high centered over the TN/OH valleys.

Although the most likely scenario is coming into focus, there are still details that toss uncertainty into the prognosis. The biggest is how far towards the coast the high and its dry air manages to make it, thus denying the deeper moisture needed for precipitation. The CMC and GFS hold onto this dry air the longest, preventing any appreciable overlap between the strongest lift and deepest moisture and rendering less than an inch of snow, mainly focused along the coast where moisture profiles are most favorable. The Euro continues to show a little more expansive area of moisture to work with and remains in the 2-3" camp, although it also continues to modestly trend downward from prior runs. The overnight snowfall forecast has followed this downward trend and now shows no more than an inch storm total. There still remains a healthy range of potential outcomes, however, ranging from 3-5" to no snow anywhere. Keep an eye on future forecasts as details continue to come into focus, and do not anchor on one particular forecast.

The most confident aspect of the forecast is the anomalously cold airmass. A stretch of unusually cold temperatures still appears likely, with record or near-record temperatures very much on the table. If it verifies, it will be one of the coldest stretches for our region since the January 2018 cold air outbreak. If we get any accumulating snow, forecast low temperatures could easily be 3-5 degrees lower than currently advertised. This prolonged stretch of cold has the potential to take its toll on pipes and other infrastructure not accustomed to this magnitude of cold. Precautions are strongly recommended in preparation of this stretch of cold weather.

Thursday through Sunday: Guidance continues to come into focus on the development of a coastal trough along the NC coast on Thursday into Friday while high pressure remains anchored inland. Amount of moisture available remains in question here as well, but thermal profiles suggest if anything does fall a more predominant freezing rain is likely, at least during the overnight hours Thurs AM and after the sun sets. During the day Thur, we should warm up enough to go all liquid. Although this may keep ice accumulations minimal, black ice may remain an issue Thurs PM into Fri AM. Kept ZR mention in the forecast but PoPs in chance range to account for moisture uncertainty.

Dry and relatively milder weather looks to make a return for the weekend.

AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 630 PM Mon...VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period as high pressure continues over the area. The dryness of the arctic airmass over eastern NC should preclude fog formation tonight. Clouds increase and lower through the day Tuesday as a storm system approaches but sub-cloud layer is very dry and will take some time to saturate and don't expect sub-VFR conditions at the TAF sites until around 00z. However, MVFR conditions are expected to develop along the coast during the afternoon. A few flurries may develop during the afternoon but steadier snow is not expected until the evening hours.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Friday/...
As of 445 AM Monday...Wintry weather is expected for area terminals late Tuesday PM into Wed AM, with the most likely risk along coastal terminals. Primarily precip mode is -SN, and mild accumulations may reach up to an inch. Snow will likely introduce IFR visibility and cig issues especially after 00z Wed. VFR briefly returns Wednesday, but a second coastal trough may bring another round of wintry precip, primarily FZRA, before turning all liquid during the daytime hours. Details on this system still remain very murky and confidence in its evolution remains low.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 935 PM Mon...Latest obs show N-NE winds 5-15 kt with seas 2-4 ft. High pressure becomes centered over the Mid-Atlantic through the short term. Low pressure will develop offshore Tue which will help tighten pressure gradients once again. 12z guidance has trended a little closer to the coast with the low track resulting in stronger Nly winds. SCA conditions expected to develop across much of the waters during the afternoon with N winds 15-25 kt, though the northern sounds and rivers expected to remain below SCA until Tuesday night.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Friday/...
As of 415 PM Monday...Weak wave of low pressure will pass well to our south Tuesday night as strong and dry high pressure builds into the area from the northwest. Latest guidance showing the low tracking a bit closer to the coast resulting in slightly stronger winds across the waters. Strong SCA conditions expected across most of the waters with a period of Gales in the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet, especially the outer waters where warmer SSTs will allow for better mixing.
Conditions peak early Wednesday morning with wind gusts around 25-30 kt across the sounds, rivers, and north of Oregon Inlet, and 35-40 kt across the waters south of Oregon Inlet, and seas up to 5-10 ft. Winds diminish fairly quickly Wednesday night with SCA seas lingering into Thursday morning. A secondary coastal trough is forecast to develop Thurs night into Fri which may introduce a period of elevated seas at the end of the period, but evolution of this system remains of low confidence.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for NCZ029- 044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday for NCZ029-044-079-090-091.
Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning for NCZ045>047-080-081-092-094-193>196-198-199- 203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Tuesday to 7 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ135.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Tuesday to 1 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ137-231.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 7 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ150.
Gale Warning from 7 PM Tuesday to 11 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ152-154-156-158.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight Tuesday night to 1 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ230.