Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pine Knoll Shores, NC

NEAR TERM /TODAY/
As of 230 AM Saturday...

Key Messages

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms with heavy rain again today

Regional radar early this morning shows scattered showers and thunderstorms ongoing from GA/SC northeast through ENC. This activity appears to be associated with two separate shortwaves (one moving off the Mid-Atlantic Coast, and the other moving through SC).

It looks like the SC wave will continue to progress NE early this morning, and move across central/eastern NC from mid- morning through mid-afternoon today. The wave may come through a bit before the typical diurnal maximum in afternoon instability. That said, given the very moist airmass in place, it won't take much heating to support moderate destabilization just ahead of the arrival of the wave. Low-mid level temps are forecast to be a touch warmer today compared to yesterday, and this may limit the coverage some today compared to yesterday.
However, the added lift from the wave in tandem with the seabreeze should support another round of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.

Weak deep layer shear should keep the risk of severe weather at a minimum, but water-loaded downdrafts capable of strong, gusty winds will be possible. Of note, as the wave moves through today, there may be just enough of a boost with winds aloft to support an area of 20-25kt of deep layer shear north of HWY 264.
This area looks to have the best chance at thunderstorm organization, with a locally "higher" risk of strong wind gusts.
Additionally, the slight enhancement to shear in the area may allow deeper convection to be sustained a bit longer than the rest of ENC, supporting the potential for higher rainfall totals. For the area at large, anomalous PWATs of 2"+ will combine with a deep warm cloud layer and slow storm motions, supporting a risk of intense rainfall rates. A Flood Watch was contemplated for portions of ENC, especially where the heaviest rainfall totals occurred yesterday, but there is some uncertainty regarding where the heaviest rainfall totals will be. Because of this, we'll hold off on a watch with this forecast, but continue to evaluate the potential in later updates.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 230 AM Saturday...

In the wake of today's shortwave, guidance is in generally good agreement showing an area of low-mid level drying overspreading ENC this evening and tonight. Should this be realized, there may be a relative minimum in shower and thunderstorm activity tonight. Regardless, it will be another warm night, with lows in the 70s areawide.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 0315 Friday...

Key Messages:

- Warm, Moist, Unsettled.

This weekend two sluggish systems inch toward the FA, a cold front sagging Sward from Great Lakes and a midlevel cutoff low dragging Eward from TX. Moisture content remains ample with PWATs AoA 2" in onshore flow through the bottom half of the column keeping mentionable PoPs in the forecast for the vast majority of the period. A local low along the boundary to the N located near DELMARVA rides the front Eward out to the Nern Atlantic Saturday, pulling moisture over the FA in its wake.
This is the first of three waves to travel Eward along the boundary, which is still forecast to remain just N of the FA through the period. Slow storm motions, potentially training storms, and plenty of moisture means localized flooding threat is on the table through the weekend, and therefore at least portions of the FA are in a Marginal Risk of Flash Flooding through the weekend. Nothing jumps off the page as impressive Severe wx wise Saturday, though there may be some more shear in play on Sunday which would support some better updraft organization. With that said, this time of year, should MUCAPEs be tapped into, cells capable of producing damaging winds aren't out of the question.

Early next week mid level trough approaches from the W with the offshore high holding strong keeping moisture and instability in place for more summer precip pattern forecasts, with best chances associated with seabreeze in afternoon and evenings becoming confined offshore nocturnally. The aforementioned front is forecast to remain N of the FA through the weekend and early week, but waves traveling along the boundary make details of the front's exact location a little tricky.

Once the midlevel shortwave has cleared the FA next week, the effects of the offshore ridging will reach further W, leading to more zonal flow aloft and a less dynamic pattern, at least briefly.

General warming trend in Ts through the long term, MaxTs in mid upper 80s maybe touching 90 and MinTs low 70s heating up to MaxTs in the low to mid 90s with MinTs in mid 70s by late next week.

AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 06z Sunday/...
As of 230 AM Saturday...

Key Messages

- Low confidence CIG and TSRA forecast over the next 24 hrs

A pair of upper level disturbances will impact ENC over the next 12- 18 hours, likely supporting an increased risk of SHRA, TSRA, and sub VFR conditions. The first wave is about to move off the ENC coast, and has been supporting SCT SHRA east of a KPGV to KEWN line. The next wave is currently lifting NE through South Carolina. It's this wave that is expected to bring another round of SHRA and TSRA to much of ENC on Saturday. Of note, some guidance suggests the TSRA risk may develop as early as 07z-09z this morning. In the meantime, an area of low stratus (IFR/MVFR CIGs ) will continue to impact portions of ENC. CIGs should begin to rise as the SHRA and TSRA risk increases, but there will also be a subsequent increase in the risk of sub VFR VIS. By Saturday evening, somewhat drier air aloft may nose into the area with a reduced risk of SHRA and TSRA. Overall, confidence in the TSRA and CIG forecast over the next 12-24 hours is lower than normal.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 0350 Friday...Unsettled conditions will prevail through the period, keeping diurnal showers and tstorms in the forecast each day. Expect periods of sub- VFR flight cats with gusty winds under showers/storms in afternoon and evening with early morning fog development possible for areas that see rain.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 230 AM Saturday...

Key Messages

- Increased thunderstorm risk for areas waters again today

An upper level wave is forecast to move through the ENC waters this morning through this afternoon, supporting another round of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The thunderstorm risk may extend into tonight for the central and southern coastal waters. For all waters, the strongest thunderstorms will be capable of 30-40kt+ winds and waterspouts.
The greatest waterspout risk appears to be across the Albemarle Sound vicinity. Outside of the thunderstorm activity, the background flow will be southwesterly at 10-20kt which will support seas of 3-5 ft.

LONG TERM /Sunday though Wednesday/...
As of 0400 Friday...Generally SW 10-15kt through the long term, strongest during peak heating, calming ever so slightly overnight. Sat may see some gusts approaching 25kt across PamSound in the afternoon. Typical summer- time precip pattern: offshore showers early AM, clearing afternoons, nocturnal showers and storms. Winds slightly stronger weekend, SWerly 15-20kt offshore.

HYDROLOGY
As of 230 AM Saturday...

An area of increased lift will overlap with a moderately unstable, but anomalously moist, airmass today, supporting areas of intense rainfall rates. While the most intense rainfall rates will tend to be of relatively shorter duration at any one location, the rates may support a few instances of flash flooding. There appears to be a locally higher risk north of the HWY 264 corridor where thunderstorms may be a bit more organized, potentially supporting a longer residence time of the higher rates. This is also the same area that received the heaviest rainfall over the past 24 hours, and where FFG is the lowest. A Flood Watch was contemplated in that area, but the coverage of thunderstorms may be scattered enough to limit the overall risk. This will continue to be re-evaluated through the day.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.