Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pine Knoll Shores, NC

NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/
As of 1:25 PM Saturday...A few isolated showers have developed along weak sea and river breezes with additional development expected this afternoon between New Bern and Jacksonville.

Previous Discussion
As of 330 AM Saturday
A strong upper- level ridge begins building in with surface high pressure strengthening. Apparent temperatures will be slightly warmer, topping out in the mid-90s. Seabreeze will support the chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms from New Bern to Jacksonville in the afternoon, but the rest of the area is expected to remain dry.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 330 AM Saturday...Similar night in store for tonight with calm conditions and mostly clear skies. Like Friday night, these conditions will yield good radiational cooling conditions that, coupled with a moist boundary layer, are likely to lead to the development of patchy fog across much of ENC, with the best chances for the Coastal Plain. Lows will be near 70 inland and mid-70s Outer Banks.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 330 AM Sat...

Key Messages

- Dangerous heat and humidity develops early next week. Heat indices are likely to reach 105 to 110+ degrees Monday through Friday

Overall, little in the way of change in the forecast from Sunday onwards. A very strong upper level ridge will build over the Mid-Atlantic Sunday, and won't budge through late next week.
This will keep the area mostly dry until Wednesday when the ridge begins to break down. Initially the highest low level heights will be to our north and west, but heights will build further locally by Monday. This will result in dangerous heat and humidity building across the region for a several day stretch. We begin to ramp up Sunday, with highs expected in the low to mid 90s, and heat indices around 100. Monday through Friday temps will climb into the the mid to upper 90s potentially hitting 100 in some spots Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. This will result in soaring heat indices of 105-110+.

With strong subsidence due to the upper level ridge, no relief from the heat is anticipated from afternoon thunderstorms at least through midweek next week, and the cumulative multi-day (and all day) effects from the heat may be underestimated.

AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Sunday afternoon/...
As of 1:15 PM Saturday...Predominantly VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the day, although scattered showers and thunderstorms may cause brief drops in flight cats. EWN and OAJ will have the best chance at seeing precip today, but it's possible that a stay shower make it as far inland as ISO.
Tonight, another round of fog is on the table with very similar wind and sky conditions in the forecast. Radiational cooling will set the stage for fog development across the coastal plain starting around or shortly after 06z. Given how widespread and dense the fog was last night, more weight was given to the most pessimistic guidance for tonight. All TAF sites are expected to have a few hours of at least IFR (if not LIFR) VIS between 06-12z. Similarly to this morning, fog may be slow to burn off, potentially lingering across the inner coastal plain a few hours past sunrise. Light variable winds and mostly clear skies will finish out the rest of the TAF period.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 330 AM Sat...Primarily VFR conditions are forecast through the period as high pressure builds in from the west.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Saturday night/...
As of 330 AM Saturday....Great boating conditions are expected through the period with light variable winds and 2-3 ft seas.

LONG TERM /Sunday though Wednesday/...
As of 330 AM Sat...Great boating conditions are on tap for the long term period with high pressure over the region for the next several days. Winds Sunday morning will be light and variable until an afternoon sea breeze kicks in at S 5-10 kts.
Winds become more SW Monday at around 5-15 kts, and then become light and variable again by Tuesday morning. A sea breeze will bring winds around to the S at 5-10 kts by Tuesday afternoon, and more of the same is expected Wednesday. Expect seas to remain 2-3 ft through the end of next week.

CLIMATE
High Temperature Records at select climate sites from Monday (6/23) through Friday (6/27).

**Please note...due to a large data gap from 1940-1955, the Greenville COOP records likely do not reflect the "true" record high for these days.

Record High Temperatures for Monday (6/23)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 98/1988 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 90/2018 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville** 100/1933 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 96/1998 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 101/1911 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 99/2010 (NCA ASOS)

Record High Temperatures for Tuesday (6/24)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 100/1944 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 95/1944 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville** 100/2010 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 97/1948 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 98/1952 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 98/2010 (NCA ASOS)

Record High Temperatures for Wednesday (6/25)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 101/1952 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 96/1952 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville** 100/1921 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 96/1948 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 101/1952 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 98/1981 (NCA ASOS)

Record High Temperatures for Thursday (6/26)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 103/1952 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 95/1952 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville** 99/2008 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 98/1968 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 102/1952 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 98/1968 (NCA ASOS)

Record High Temperatures for Friday (6/27)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 105/1952 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 97/1952 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville** 100/2010 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 102/1959 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 105/1954 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 99/1998 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.