Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Casmalia, CA

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...07/157 PM.

A trough that has been over the Pac NW the last several days is expected to weaken and move east this week and be replaced by a high pressure ridge that will bring widespread warming to the area, but particularly the inland areas where onshore flow will have the least impact. Coastal valleys will be trending warmer as well, but due to at least a partial morning marine layer presence and moderate onshore flow the warmest valleys should top out in the mid 90s with only a 5-10 percent chance of reaching 100 Wednesday. Coastal areas and Downtown LA are expected to remain relatively mild as typical onshore flow and the marine layer keeps temperatures in the mid 70s to mid 80s, which would 2-5 degrees above normal.

Gusty Sundowners are expected to return to southwestern Santa Barbara County Monday and Tuesday evenings, likely reaching advisory levels each night with gusts to 50 mph. This will mostly just impact the lower population areas west of Goleta.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...07/209 PM.

Very little change in the weather pattern is expected the latter half of next week as high pressure aloft remains as well as a steady onshore flow. Desert and other far inland areas immune from the marine layer will remain quite hot and may actually warm up a degree or two going into next weekend with around a 25% chance of highs around 105. However, temperatures for coast and coastal valleys should generally remain about the same as steady onshore flow will keep temperatures within around 5 degrees of normal.

AVIATION
07/1902Z.

At 1630Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3100 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 3500 feet with a maximum temperature of 14 C.

For the 18Z TAF package, high confidence in forecasts for KWJF, KPMD and KPRB. For all other sites, moderate confidence in forecasts due to uncertainties with behavior of the marine layer.
Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. 10% chance of cigs lingering through early this afternoon. Otherwise, there is a 20% chance of cigs pushing back onshore after 22Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate to high confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecast.

MARINE
07/322 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate confidence in current forecast.
Through Thursday, high confidence in a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. Moderate confidence in the GALE WARNING over the two northern outer zones from late this afternoon through tonight, with a 40% chance that the gale force gusts are localized or only occur for a couple of hours. Monday and Tuesday, there is a 30-50% chance of Gale force winds during the same time period, with the best chances on Monday. SCA winds are likely to persist through Wednesday night, then weakening on Thursday through Friday.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Wednesday, SCA level wind are expected, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours, with seas near or above SCA levels. On Thursday and Friday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For a majority of the southern Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Friday. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel, where there is a 20-30% chance of SCA gusts this afternoon and evening, and a 40-60% chance of SCA level winds Monday and Tuesday, mainly in the late afternoon and evening hours.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Watch in effect from Monday evening through late Monday night for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT Monday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).