Monday, November30, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Casmalia, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 4:52PM Monday November 30, 2020 8:45 AM PST (16:45 UTC) Moonrise 5:20PMMoonset 7:08AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ673 Waters From Pt. Sal To Santa Cruz Island Ca And Westward 60 Nm Including San Miguel And Santa Rosa Islands- 202 Am Pst Mon Nov 30 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday evening...
Today..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft dominant period 13 seconds.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 9 to 11 ft dominant period 10 seconds.
Tue..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 9 to 11 ft dominant period 14 seconds.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, becoming 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Strongest northwestern portion. Combined seas 8 to 10 ft dominant period 15 seconds, subsiding to 7 to 8 ft dominant period 14 seconds after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 6 to 8 ft at 14 seconds.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. NW swell 5 to 6 ft at 13 seconds.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 7 to 9 ft.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 8 to 10 ft.
PZZ600 202 Am Pst Mon Nov 30 2020
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 09z, or 1 am pst, a 1038 mb high was over idaho and a thermal trough was along the southern california coast.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Casmalia, CA
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location: 34.7, -121.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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FXUS66 KLOX 301312 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 512 AM PST Mon Nov 30 2020

SYNOPSIS. 30/512 AM.

Skies will be clear through Wednesday and it will be breezy to locally windy. Daytime highs will be well above normal in most areas. A moderate to possibly strong offshore wind event will affect the region Wednesday night through Friday, along with some cooling. Winds should decrease over the weekend, with some warming expected.

SHORT TERM (TDY-WED). 30/509 AM.

Just some high clouds drifting across the region this morning, and those should push east of the area by late morning. The KLAX to KDAG gradient was 3.4 mb offshore this morning, almost unchanged from this time on Sun. There was less in the way of winds across the mtns and valleys of L.A./VTU Counties early this morning. While winds may increase and become a more widespread with the typical diurnal cycle this morning, expect winds to remain below advisory levels today. Winds should diminish in most areas this afternoon, A very weak short wave trough will zip southeastward across the region this morning. It will not change heights or thicknesses much, but it will turn the flow aloft more northerly. Max temps today should actually go up a couple of degrees in most areas from those recorded on Sun, due to some warming at 950 mb.

N-S gradients will begin to sharpen later today and tonight, especially between KLAX and KBFL and KSBA and KBFL. where gradients will top out between 5 and 6 mb offshore. With this in mind, and some subsidence on the backside of the short wave, expect some gusty advisory level winds to develop across southern SBA County this evening, first in areas from Refugio westward late this afternoon and evening, with the focus of the winds shifting to areas near Montecito later in the evening through late tonight as the winds turn more north northeasterly. Also, northwest to north winds should reach advisory levels around the Interstate 5 corridor this evening, then continue tonight. The winds will shift to northeast Tue, causing the focus of the winds to shift to other mountain locations, but advisory level winds should persist in the L.A./VTU County mtns for much of Tue.

With this in mind, have issued Wind Advisories from this evening through late tonight for the Santa Ynez Range and the south coast of SBA County, and from this evening through Tue afternoon for the mountains of L.A./VTU Counties (excluding the Santa Monicas).

High resolution models show winds spreading into the Santa Clarita Valley, the western San Fernando Valley, the eastern valleys of Ventura County, and into the Santa Monicas tonight, but at this point, it appears winds will mostly remain just below advisory levels. Will let the day shift look at the next high res model run to make that decision for tonight.

Winds will turn more northeasterly on Tue, and that is when advisory level winds look more likely in the Santa Clarita Valley, the northern and western San Fernando Valley, the valleys of VTU County, the Ventura County coastal plain and the Santa Monica mountains. Advisories will probably be needed for Tue for those areas. The main question is will they be needed tonight. Locally gusty northeast winds will also affect locations through and below passes and canyons of the Santa Lucia range in SLO County late tonight/Tue morning. Height/thicknesses will rise a bit more on Tue, but 950 mb temps do not change much, with warming possibly offset by low level cold advection. Therefore, expect little change in max temps Tue.

The EC, GFS and the WRF, are in decent agreement with the upper pattern, showing a highly amplified ridge extending from southern CA north northeastward into eastern portions of the Pac NW and Idaho Tue night and Wed. The GFS and EC show an enormous upper low covering much of the Plains and the eastern Rockies on Wed. At the surface, offshore pressure gradients have also come into somewhat better agreement. While the WRF had been showing KLAX- KDAG gradients of over 8 mb offshore at 12Z Wed, it now shows 6.6 mb, while the EC show a gradient of 4.2 mb offshore, and the GFS just 2.9 mb offshore. It now appears that for at least Tue night/Wed, northeast winds will be generally in the advisory level category across the mtns and most valleys of L.A./VTU Counties and the VTU County coastal plain. Max temps will likely drop a few degrees as heights lower and cold air advection begins to spill in from the northeast.

LONG TERM (THU-SUN). 30/503 AM.

Both the GFS and the EC show vigorous short wave energy wrapping around the western periphery of the expansive upper low Wed night and Thu, elongating it and pulling it westward. The EC actually shows it pinching off into another upper low in Arizona Thu afternoon, while the GFS shows it remaining a very positively titled sharp trough. The EC, (as has the GFS for the past several runs) continues to show a very sharp height gradient setting across the region Wed night and Thu between that upper low and a strong upper high over Oregon. However, the 06Z run of the GFS shows an upper low moving into the coast of northern CA, then shows it dropping southward to near Pt. Concepton Fri. This is a totally new solution and looks rather odd, so it has been discounted in favor of the 00Z run of the GFS which was similar to the EC.

While the 00Z runs of both models have backed off with respect to the strength of the sfc pressure gradient between KLAX and KDAG late Wed night/Thu, the still GFS showed 5.2 mb offshore Thu morning INCREASING to 5.7 mb in the afternoon, while the EC showed a similar trend, 5.2 mb increasing to 6.7 mb in the afternoon. With deeply layer northeasterly flow through the atmosphere and some decent cold air advection, along with moderate gradients, expect a solid wind advisory level event across much of L.A. and VTU Counties Wed night and Thu, with the potential for some High Wind Warning level winds depending upon how the pattern ultimately unfolds.

The EC shows the upper low spinning across Arizona Fri. keeping good northeast flow aloft over our area and keeps sfc gradients fairly strongly offshore. The 00Z run of the GFS actually showed the strongest offshore gradients Fri morning. Gusty northeast winds will likely persist across much of L.A. and VTU Counties Thu night and Fri. With the cold air advection and some height falls, would expect some cooling across the region for Thu/Fri.

The EC shows the upper low slowly drifting into extreme southern CA on Sat, then southward into Baja on Sun, keeping northeast flow aloft over the area. However, surface pressure gradients really drop off Sat, then even become onshore Sunday. The GFS keeps gradients offshore through the weekend, possibly strong enough to keep gusty winds going into Sat. It is a very complicated forecast as far as timing and strength of the winds, but at this point, expect the windiest days to be Thu and Fri, with an edge to Thu.

AVIATION. 30/1006Z.

At 1000Z, there was a surface-based inversion at KLAX. The top of the inversion was 800 feet with a temperature of 21 degrees Celsius.

Overall, high confidence in 12Z TAF as VFR conditions are anticipated for all sites through the period.

KLAX . High confidence in 12Z TAF as VFR are anticipated through the period. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR . High confidence in 12Z TAF as VFR are anticipated through the period.

MARINE. 30/206 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Tuesday evening, high confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. For Wednesday through Friday, generally high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels although there is a 50% chance of SCA level northeast winds across PZZ676 Wednesday night and Thursday.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 40% chance of SCA level winds each afternoon and evening today and Tuesday. For Wednesday through Friday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels across most areas except for a 40% chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel. For Tuesday, there is a 50% chance of SCA level northeast winds south of Ventura. For Wednesday through Friday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura southward.

FIRE WEATHER. 30/411 AM.

A prolonged period of dry offshore flow will continue to bring elevated to brief critical fire weather conditions at times across much of Southwest California during the next 7 days. Through Tuesday, north to northeast winds will gust between 25 and 45 mph at times across the wind prone areas of Southwest California with the strongest winds focused across the Los Angeles and Ventura county mountains and valleys, southern Santa Barbara county (mainly during the nighttime hours), and the coastal foothills of San Luis Obispo county. Isolated Red Flag durations of 6 hours or more will be possible across the windiest foothill locations of Los Angeles and Ventura counties Tuesday. Minimum humidities between 5 and 15 percent will be common across many areas away from the beaches, along with very poor nighttime humidity recoveries in the mountains, foothills, and wind prone areas. There is the potential for a long duration moderate to strong Santa Ana wind event with possible Red Flag conditions sometime between Wednesday and Saturday. While there is still some uncertainty in the timing and strength of this event, the highest probability of the strongest and most widespread Santa Ana winds appears to be Wednesday night into Thursday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CA . Wind Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Tuesday for zones 39-52. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM PST Tuesday for zones 53-54. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ . Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST Tuesday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PST Tuesday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (WED-SUN).

An extended dry and warmer pattern through the week with elevated fire weather concerns, culminating in a potentially strong Santa Ana wind event with critical fire weather conditions at the end of the week.



PUBLIC . DB AVIATION . RAT MARINE . RAT FIRE . Gomberg SYNOPSIS . DB

weather.gov/losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46259 11 mi49 min 58°F7 ft
46011 - SANTA MARIA - 21 NM Northwest of Point Arguello, CA 23 mi25 min NNW 18 G 21 56°F1023.1 hPa
46218 - Harvest, CA (071) 32 mi49 min 55°F6 ft
HRVC1 36 mi45 min 53°F 1022.9 hPa (+1.4)
PTGC1 - Point Arguello, CA 36 mi45 min N 19 G 21 51°F 1022.1 hPa (+1.2)
46215 - Diablo Canyon, CA (076) 42 mi49 min 54°F4 ft
PSLC1 - 9412110 - Port San Luis, CA 43 mi45 min NNE 1.9 G 4.1 50°F 54°F1023.7 hPa (+0.9)
CPXC1 44 mi37 min N 1.9 G 4.1 1023.4 hPa

Wind History for Port San Luis, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lompoc, Vandenberg Air Force Base, CA39 mi47 minSE 610.00 miFair43°F34°F74%1023.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVBG

Wind History from VBG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmSW3W5NW5NW7NW5N7CalmSE3CalmE3S3CalmE3SE4SE5SE3CalmSE3E3SE5CalmSE6
1 day agoSE7SE3W3NW4W6NW5N7N7CalmCalmSE4SE3S4SE5SE9SE7E6E3SE8SE8SE9SE10E7SE6
2 days agoSE9S3SW4W5W8W8NW6NW4N4CalmCalmSE4SE7SE7SE9SE9SE10SE10SE6SE5SE7SE9SE9SE6

Tide / Current Tables for Avila, California
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Avila
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:32 AM PST     Full Moon
Mon -- 02:33 AM PST     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:52 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:06 AM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 08:47 AM PST     3.07 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:16 PM PST     -3.41 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:50 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:16 PM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:56 PM PST     0.73 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.4-0.1-0.3-0.4-00.61.52.32.93.12.71.80.6-0.8-2.1-3-3.4-3.3-2.7-1.7-0.70.10.60.7

Tide / Current Tables for Port San Luis Wharf, California
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Port San Luis Wharf
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:32 AM PST     Full Moon
Mon -- 02:53 AM PST     2.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:52 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:07 AM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 09:07 AM PST     5.91 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:22 PM PST     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:50 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:16 PM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:46 PM PST     3.64 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.22.62.22.12.333.94.85.65.95.74.93.82.41.20.2-0.3-0.20.31.22.233.53.6

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Vandenberg AFB, CA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.