Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Indian Beach, NC

NEAR TERM /TODAY/
As of 215 AM Thursday...

Key Messages

- Increased risk of showers and thunderstorms through tonight, a few of which could be strong to severe with damaging winds and minor flooding

Widespread convection from last night has laid out an outflow boundary which currently stretches from near Raleigh east through the Albemarle Sound vicinity. Meanwhile, there appears to be a remnant MCV located over central NC. The airmass east of the MCV and south of the outflow boundary is modestly unstable and weakly capped, and this may allow scattered showers and thunderstorms to fester along the boundary for a few hours prior to sunrise. With a high PWAT airmass in place and slow storm motions, some heavier rainfall rates may occur. However, dry conditions of late should help to keep the flooding risk at a minimum. Closer to sunrise, scattered convection may migrate inland off the Atlantic and towards the coast within a broad confluent zone.

In the wake of any morning showers and thunderstorms, attention will then turn to the afternoon hours. The seabreeze plus any residual boundaries from this morning should help provide increased low-level forcing compared to the past few days, and this should subsequently translate to an increased risk of showers and thunderstorms. Short- term ensemble guidance have waffled some on where the best chance of thunderstorms will be, but the signal is pretty good regardless.

Moderate instability, 2"+ PWATs, and increased forcing should support some higher rainfall rates at times, with areas of 1-3" of rain likely where convection is the strongest and most persistent. Dry antecedant conditions should help to lower the overall flood risk today. However, any area that receives 2-3" of rain in a short period of time may have to contend with some minor flooding. Because of the lowered, and more isolated, flood risk, a Flood Watch is not planned for today. We'll continue to evaluate this potential, though.

Weak deep layer shear should help to limit the severe thunderstorm potential today. However, moderate instability and increased forcing should support transient, deep cores capable of wet microbursts. This potential is supported by machine learning guidance, which suggests an increased risk of a few severe thunderstorms compared to recent days.

With increased cloudcover and a higher chance of thunderstorms, highs today should struggle to get above 90.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 215 AM Thursday...

Various boundaries and upper level impulses combined with a very moist airmass may support at least isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening and tonight. A lot of what happens tonight is probably very dependent on what happens during the day, which makes the convective coverage and intensity tonight less certain.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 230 AM Thurs...We will continue to see a rather active pattern across ENC through this weekend with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms as a thermal trough remains inland and high pressure ridging remains anchored offshore. Upper level pattern will remain active to the north, with multiple troughs tracking from west to east across the Northern Plains into the Northeast, while upper level ridging remaining in place off the coast of the Southeast and over the western CONUS. Several weak midlevel shortwave troughs will push across the region through this weekend and into early next week continuing to bring moisture up from the Gulf from midlevels downward across the Southeast. As a result, diurnal showers and thunderstorms will persist across the CWA with lowest precipitation chances overnight unless a stronger storm cluster persists and drifts into the CWA from further inland before dissipating. With high PW values, the greatest threat from the storms will be heavy rainfall. WPC currently has the FA in a marginal ERO on Friday before the area finally sees slightly lower chances for precip.
This will briefly end the marginal risk for excessive rainfall.
While there will be a lack of wind shear across ENC over the next several days, 1000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to be in place each day. This will result in at least a low end threat for some severe weather with SPC putting our far western inland zones under a marginal risk of severe weather on Friday.
Damaging wind gusts appear to be the greatest threat within the strongest storms with the Coastal Plain having the highest chance at seeing stronger storms.

Late this weekend and into early next week, a backdoor front slowly sags down the Mid-Atlantic coast but there are tons of model differences in how far and how quickly it will march Sward. This remains contingent on how much momentum gets transferred from the trough aloft exiting NECONUS and where midlevel shortwaves and potential MCSs line up.

For now, keeping the backdoor front along the northern zones of the area early next week which will keep available moisture for diurnal summer time shower and tstorms in place into midweek next week.

Max Temps each day range from the upper 80s to low 90s, with min temps mid 70s.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 06z Friday/...
As of 215 AM Thursday...

Key Messages

- Increased risk of TSRA over the next 24 hours

TSRA over the past 12 hours have laid out an outflow boundary that currently stretches west to east across the northern half of ENC. SCT SHRA and TSRA will remain possible for at least the next few hours in the vicinity of this boundary, especially from KISO to KPGV. The TAFs have been trended more pessimistic over the next few hours to account for this potential. It's unclear how far south the TSRA risk will extend, and for this reason, I've opted to keep SHRA and TSRA out of the TAFs for KOAJ and KEWN. By sunrise Thursday, SHRA and isolated TSRA are expected to migrate inland off the Atlantic, and may impact KOAJ or KEWN in a similar fashion as yesterday. During the afternoon and evening hours Thursday, moderate instability, deep moisture, and increased lift should lead to an increased risk of TSRA compared to the past few days. I've kept PROB30s in for now, but where confidence increases, these will need to be adjusted to reflect TEMPO or prevailing TSRA conditions. In the wake of the afternoon and evening TSRA, a period of sub VFR CIGs may develop across much of the area. It's unclear how long the TSRA will last, therefore I've kept the TAFs at VFR into Thursday evening for now.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 230 AM Thurs...Several mid level shortwaves will track across ENC into early next week. This will continue to bring a daily threat for showers and thunderstorms as well as sub-VFR conditions. Best chance to see reduced vis and ceilings from this activity is in the afternoon and early evening each day.
If it does rain then there will also be a fog and low stratus threat each night as well for areas that see meaningful rainfall. Slow moving front sags down the NE coast late weekend/early next week.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Thursday night/...
As of 230 AM Thurs...SCA's have recently been taken down across all our waters this morning as SW'rly winds have eased down to 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts and seas along our coastal waters remaining around 3-5 ft as of this update.

As we get into today and tonight a developing thermal trough inland will interact with a ridge of high pressure centered offshore allowing SW'rly winds to increase slightly to 15-20 kts with a few gusts up near 25 kts. With additional cloud cover expected today, thinking is that the thermal trough will not be as strong as the previous day which will preclude SCA's today, though can't rule out a few gusts up to 25 kts or so across the same areas that saw small craft conditions on Wednesday. Gusty winds will then ease once again overnight to 10-15 kts. Seas generally remain around 3-5 ft through the period. There will be a chance to see some shower and thunderstorm activity across our waters as well, bringing at least a threat for locally enhanced winds and seas within any thunderstorm that impacts the waters.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 230 AM Thurs...With little change in the surface pattern through this weekend as high pressure ridging remains centered offshore and a thermal trough remains centered off to the west, expect 10-20 kt SW'rly winds and with gusts up to 20 to occasionally 25 kts across our waters through this weekend while seas persist around 2-4 ft. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue as well.

Cold front slowly sags down the coast late this weekend into early next week, but for now, keep it no further S than our northern zones until early next week. Either way our waters remain below SCA criteria early next week as well, as incoming front will be rather weak.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.